2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 15

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 54.69 45.31 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 45.31 54.69 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 43.636 30.606 25.758 0.0
Cincinnati 39.494 25.998 34.508 0.0
Baltimore 16.87 43.396 31.638 8.096
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 8.096 91.904

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 67.424 32.576
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 32.576 67.424

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 73.622 26.378 0.0
San Diego 0.0 26.378 73.622 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 70.88 29.12 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 29.12 70.88 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 57.13 42.87 0.0 0.0
Detroit 42.87 57.13 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 60.036 39.964
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 39.964 60.036

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 73.716 20.52 5.764 0.0
Carolina 16.266 59.778 23.956 0.0
Atlanta 10.018 19.702 70.28 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 53.71 46.29 0.0 0.0
Arizona 46.29 53.71 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 86.66 13.34
St Louis 0.0 0.0 13.34 86.66

Generated: Wed Dec 17 22:57:06 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 62.122 30.57 5.774 1.534 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 37.742 60.878 1.126 0.254 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 0.072 4.464 53.244 42.22 0.0 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 2.396 22.926 18.314 18.612 16.61 78.858
Cincinnati 0.064 1.692 13.738 24.0 21.974 20.15 81.618
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 3.192 13.678 27.446 32.144 76.46
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.922 8.006 34.928
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.436 5.944 9.38
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.29 8.476 9.766
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 8.122 8.442
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.548 0.548
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 43.75 6.38 3.58 0.0 38.192 6.04 97.942
Arizona 44.074 2.216 0.0 0.0 50.316 3.394 100.0
Green Bay 6.218 47.446 3.466 0.0 6.376 31.358 94.864
Dallas 4.454 9.128 57.298 0.0 2.284 7.504 80.668
Detroit 1.504 34.83 6.536 0.0 2.614 49.116 94.6
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 29.12 0.0 0.218 2.588 31.926
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.716 0.0 0.0 73.716
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.266 0.0 0.0 16.266
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.018 0.0 0.0 10.018
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 17 22:57:05 EST 2014

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 18th, 2014 at 12:09 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.