2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 15

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

html>Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 95.968 4.032 0.0 0.0
Miami 4.032 91.4 4.568 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 4.568 60.7 34.732
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 34.732 65.268

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 91.016 8.984 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 8.984 79.02 11.996 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 11.996 88.004 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 83.866 16.134 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 16.134 83.866 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 89.014 10.986 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 10.986 89.014 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 76.18 23.82 0.0 0.0
Dallas 23.82 76.18 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 48.912 25.886 25.202 0.0
Green Bay 30.954 34.132 34.914 0.0
Detroit 20.134 39.982 39.884 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 69.562 30.438 0.0 0.0
Carolina 30.438 69.562 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 74.374 25.626
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 25.626 74.374

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.296 0.704 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.704 97.248 2.048 0.0
Arizona 0.0 2.048 97.952 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Wed Dec 18 21:07:20 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 73.926 13.552 0.726 0.81 10.986 0.0 100.0
New England 15.496 39.28 24.804 16.388 0.0 3.534 99.502
Kansas City 9.714 1.272 0.0 0.0 89.014 0.0 100.0
Cincinnati 0.102 26.004 55.5 9.41 0.0 4.176 95.192
Indianapolis 0.762 18.214 12.764 68.26 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.83 4.24 3.914 0.0 15.434 24.418
Miami 0.0 0.848 1.966 1.218 0.0 73.526 77.558
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.09 3.09
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.24 0.24
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 99.296 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.704 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.376 69.186 0.0 0.0 16.314 13.606 99.482
Carolina 0.178 30.26 0.0 0.0 31.622 26.8 88.86
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 52.404 23.776 0.0 0.0 76.18
Chicago 0.0 0.0 28.122 20.79 0.0 0.0 48.912
San Francisco 0.15 0.554 0.0 0.0 49.846 47.402 97.952
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 14.61 16.344 0.0 0.0 30.954
Detroit 0.0 0.0 3.828 16.306 0.0 0.0 20.134
Dallas 0.0 0.0 1.036 22.784 0.0 0.0 23.82
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.514 12.192 13.706
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 18 21:07:20 EST 2013

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