2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 13

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 66.88 24.744 8.376 0.0
Miami 29.126 54.592 16.282 0.0
Buffalo 3.994 20.664 75.342 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 58.17 21.118 13.568 7.144
Pittsburgh 19.474 21.842 36.112 22.572
Baltimore 9.664 31.982 24.738 33.616
Cleveland 12.692 25.058 25.582 36.668

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.748 6.252 0.0 0.0
Houston 6.252 93.316 0.432 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 64.306 35.694
Jacksonville 0.0 0.432 35.262 64.306

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 97.58 2.26 0.16 0.0
Kansas City 0.658 60.308 39.034 0.0
San Diego 1.762 37.432 60.806 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 81.82 18.18 0.0 0.0
Dallas 18.18 81.82 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 50.632 49.368
Washington 0.0 0.0 49.368 50.632

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 73.162 26.838 0.0 0.0
Detroit 26.838 72.712 0.45 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.378 64.61 35.012
Minnesota 0.0 0.072 34.94 64.988

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 71.89 22.188 5.908 0.014
Atlanta 21.378 46.966 31.58 0.076
Carolina 6.732 30.736 57.738 4.794
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.11 4.774 95.116

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 45.63 40.612 13.368 0.39
Seattle 47.892 35.046 15.708 1.354
San Francisco 6.476 23.658 65.424 4.442
St Louis 0.002 0.684 5.5 93.814

Generated: Wed Dec 03 20:08:34 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 58.262 30.246 7.59 1.482 1.32 0.69 99.59
New England 31.742 26.38 7.534 1.224 11.0 9.368 87.248
Cincinnati 6.438 12.038 23.4 16.294 4.118 6.434 68.722
Indianapolis 1.312 8.74 27.286 56.41 0.052 0.308 94.108
Miami 0.392 15.938 9.366 3.43 18.912 18.168 66.206
San Diego 0.902 0.494 0.29 0.076 17.616 16.916 36.294
Pittsburgh 0.438 3.554 10.094 5.388 5.676 8.252 33.402
Buffalo 0.326 0.798 1.306 1.564 2.862 7.002 13.858
Kansas City 0.17 0.266 0.164 0.058 31.68 16.472 48.81
Cleveland 0.008 0.864 8.422 3.398 1.83 5.336 19.858
Baltimore 0.01 0.576 3.484 5.594 3.158 7.542 20.364
Houston 0.0 0.106 1.064 5.082 1.776 3.512 11.54
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 45.13 22.296 5.736 0.0 15.526 8.644 97.332
Arizona 18.674 17.124 9.832 0.0 25.334 15.326 86.29
Seattle 14.152 13.232 20.502 0.006 17.084 11.576 76.552
Philadelphia 12.278 26.002 43.54 0.0 1.728 3.418 86.966
Detroit 7.744 12.984 6.11 0.0 22.666 29.89 79.394
Dallas 1.746 5.484 10.944 0.006 9.134 15.474 42.788
San Francisco 0.276 2.878 3.322 0.0 8.492 15.274 30.242
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.008 71.882 0.0 0.0 71.89
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.006 21.372 0.0 0.0 21.378
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.732 0.0 0.0 6.732
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.02 0.168 0.19
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.208 0.224
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.022
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 03 20:08:34 EST 2014

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