NFL playoff races and other musings

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Jets	64.2	27.08	7.34	1.38
New England	27.18	47.62	21.1	4.1
Miami	7.86	21.42	52.74	17.98
Buffalo	0.76	3.88	18.82	76.54

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	57.16	34.8	8.0	0.04
Cincinnati	38.04	50.3	11.58	0.08
Baltimore	4.8	14.84	78.46	1.9
Cleveland	0.0	0.06	1.96	97.98

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.8	0.18	0.02	0.0
Jacksonville	0.18	71.4	22.08	6.34
Houston	0.02	20.1	46.68	33.2
Tennessee	0.0	8.32	31.22	60.46

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	97.14	2.86	0.0	0.0
San Diego	2.86	94.88	2.12	0.14
Oakland	0.0	0.94	58.42	40.64
Kansas City	0.0	1.32	39.46	59.22

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	78.56	18.2	3.2	0.04
Philadelphia	16.52	49.32	30.72	3.44
Dallas	4.88	31.02	55.84	8.26
Washington	0.04	1.46	10.24	88.26

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	44.86	32.7	21.96	0.48
Chicago	36.14	32.84	30.18	0.84
Green Bay	18.94	34.02	44.28	2.76
Detroit	0.06	0.44	3.58	95.92

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	91.66	8.34	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	8.32	89.26	2.38	0.04
Carolina	0.02	2.26	86.22	11.5
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.14	11.4	88.46

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	43.4	31.56	24.38	0.66
San Francisco	27.44	35.16	36.88	0.52
Seattle	29.12	33.04	37.04	0.8
St Louis	0.04	0.24	1.7	98.02

Generated: Thu Oct 15 00:44:13 EDT 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	81.84	14.62	2.8	0.54	0.08	0.08	99.96
Denver	14.12	54.9	22.7	5.42	1.32	0.76	99.22
Pittsburgh	2.58	18.28	28.62	7.68	25.4	9.26	91.82
Cincinnati	0.8	6.76	21.54	8.94	27.0	14.94	79.98
NY Jets	0.54	3.74	16.16	43.76	4.82	7.06	76.08
Baltimore	0.06	0.84	2.04	1.86	6.62	11.68	23.1
New England	0.06	0.42	3.98	22.72	4.14	10.84	42.16
San Diego	0.0	0.4	1.44	1.02	7.74	14.84	25.44
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.6	7.26	0.98	3.08	11.92
Jacksonville	0.0	0.02	0.1	0.06	18.14	19.56	37.88
Houston	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.0	3.24	5.12	8.38
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.74	0.08	0.4	1.24
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.42	2.28	2.7
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.08	0.1
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	57.24	26.46	7.24	0.72	5.26	1.68	98.6
NY Giants	31.1	34.9	11.84	0.72	11.94	5.0	95.5
Minnesota	3.48	10.06	25.54	5.78	7.08	11.86	63.8
Philadelphia	2.18	9.02	4.9	0.42	25.12	18.14	59.78
Chicago	1.72	7.42	23.14	3.86	6.92	10.88	53.94
Atlanta	2.1	4.04	2.08	0.1	20.82	19.54	48.68
Dallas	1.16	2.04	1.48	0.2	15.0	17.26	37.14
Green Bay	0.74	3.8	11.3	3.1	7.06	12.44	38.44
Arizona	0.2	1.78	8.04	33.38	0.26	1.14	44.8
Seattle	0.06	0.3	2.86	25.9	0.18	0.78	30.08
San Francisco	0.02	0.18	1.56	25.68	0.1	0.62	28.16
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02	0.26	0.52	0.82
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.0	0.06	0.12
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.0	0.0	0.04
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.08	0.1
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Thu Oct 15 00:44:13 EDT 2009

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 15th, 2009 at 12:49 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.