NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	68.176	25.366	6.332	0.126
Buffalo	22.938	45.038	29.898	2.126
NY Jets	8.818	28.768	57.668	4.746
Miami	0.068	0.828	6.102	93.002

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	64.288	27.36	7.496	0.856
Pittsburgh	28.486	50.124	18.666	2.724
Cincinnati	6.808	20.11	60.41	12.672
Cleveland	0.418	2.406	13.428	83.748

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	52.312	40.978	6.404	0.306
Tennessee	45.67	47.324	6.468	0.538
Jacksonville	1.95	10.536	67.574	19.94
Indianapolis	0.068	1.162	19.554	79.216

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	53.532	36.814	8.164	1.49
Oakland	42.322	43.276	11.724	2.678
Denver	1.84	9.88	42.932	45.348
Kansas City	2.306	10.03	37.18	50.484

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	44.53	26.414	18.258	10.798
NY Giants	26.934	30.094	26.826	16.146
Washington	20.304	27.536	28.35	23.81
Philadelphia	8.232	15.956	26.566	49.246

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	71.188	26.568	2.168	0.076
Detroit	27.92	62.774	8.966	0.34
Chicago	0.868	10.236	78.692	10.204
Minnesota	0.024	0.422	10.174	89.38

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	83.728	12.59	3.11	0.572
Tampa Bay	9.472	47.374	28.362	14.792
Atlanta	5.584	26.262	42.152	26.002
Carolina	1.216	13.774	26.376	58.634

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	91.578	6.978	1.238	0.206
Seattle	3.974	43.018	32.79	20.218
St Louis	2.078	26.526	31.686	39.71
Arizona	2.37	23.478	34.286	39.866

Generated: Tue Oct 18 23:10:07 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Baltimore	35.614	17.354	8.062	3.258	17.828	7.966	90.082
New England	23.042	23.868	14.222	7.044	7.954	9.098	85.228
Pittsburgh	14.636	7.706	4.244	1.9	31.316	14.692	74.494
San Diego	6.544	10.596	15.936	20.456	3.626	5.912	63.07
Tennessee	5.51	10.02	14.164	15.976	4.838	8.564	59.072
Oakland	4.292	8.608	14.85	14.572	5.558	8.962	56.842
Buffalo	4.358	7.528	6.444	4.608	10.064	13.784	46.786
Houston	3.276	9.178	15.904	23.954	3.346	6.352	62.01
Cincinnati	2.004	2.178	1.664	0.962	9.774	12.102	28.684
NY Jets	0.61	2.466	3.044	2.698	4.234	8.584	21.636
Kansas City	0.034	0.208	0.506	1.558	0.466	1.032	3.804
Cleveland	0.042	0.088	0.138	0.15	0.462	1.092	1.972
Denver	0.03	0.142	0.46	1.208	0.446	1.374	3.66
Jacksonville	0.0080	0.056	0.354	1.532	0.076	0.418	2.444
Miami	0.0	0.0040	0.0080	0.056	0.012	0.062	0.142
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.068	0.0	0.0060	0.074

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Green Bay	56.274	11.126	3.064	0.724	22.574	3.888	97.65
Detroit	16.616	7.348	2.998	0.958	47.866	11.99	87.776
San Francisco	10.514	23.06	26.872	31.132	0.368	0.95	92.896
New Orleans	8.022	23.252	26.41	26.044	1.466	2.882	88.076
Dallas	3.658	16.414	15.426	9.032	4.046	15.28	63.856
NY Giants	2.718	7.94	9.144	7.132	6.564	15.092	48.59
Washington	1.612	7.308	7.064	4.32	6.06	14.92	41.284
Tampa Bay	0.178	1.116	2.576	5.602	1.56	6.374	17.406
Chicago	0.226	0.268	0.252	0.122	5.712	12.894	19.474
Philadelphia	0.094	1.196	2.886	4.056	1.786	8.106	18.124
Atlanta	0.06	0.574	1.728	3.222	1.158	3.658	10.4
Seattle	0.022	0.298	0.796	2.858	0.428	2.044	6.446
Arizona	0.0	0.046	0.31	2.014	0.062	0.362	2.794
St Louis	0.0020	0.024	0.274	1.778	0.042	0.29	2.41
Carolina	0.0	0.026	0.196	0.994	0.168	0.746	2.13
Minnesota	0.0040	0.0040	0.0040	0.012	0.14	0.524	0.688

Generated: Tue Oct 18 23:10:07 EDT 2011

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