Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 65.536 | 26.206 | 8.164 | 0.094 |
| Buffalo | 22.962 | 41.786 | 33.688 | 1.564 |
| NY Jets | 11.468 | 31.648 | 54.58 | 2.304 |
| Miami | 0.034 | 0.36 | 3.568 | 96.038 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 47.0 | 31.704 | 17.582 | 3.714 |
| Pittsburgh | 33.412 | 37.516 | 23.676 | 5.396 |
| Cincinnati | 18.328 | 26.552 | 44.54 | 10.58 |
| Cleveland | 1.26 | 4.228 | 14.202 | 80.31 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 88.17 | 10.118 | 1.684 | 0.028 |
| Tennessee | 8.658 | 62.656 | 26.004 | 2.682 |
| Jacksonville | 3.142 | 25.362 | 59.914 | 11.582 |
| Indianapolis | 0.03 | 1.864 | 12.398 | 85.708 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Diego | 58.336 | 27.224 | 11.714 | 2.726 |
| Oakland | 29.984 | 38.14 | 23.832 | 8.044 |
| Kansas City | 9.046 | 24.016 | 37.532 | 29.406 |
| Denver | 2.634 | 10.62 | 26.922 | 59.824 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Dallas | 47.668 | 26.578 | 16.49 | 9.264 |
| NY Giants | 29.622 | 31.084 | 24.258 | 15.036 |
| Washington | 13.412 | 24.08 | 30.518 | 31.99 |
| Philadelphia | 9.298 | 18.258 | 28.734 | 43.71 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Green Bay | 89.85 | 9.124 | 1.022 | 0.0040 |
| Detroit | 8.784 | 62.88 | 27.644 | 0.692 |
| Chicago | 1.366 | 27.812 | 67.89 | 2.932 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.184 | 3.444 | 96.372 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New Orleans | 90.348 | 7.914 | 1.484 | 0.254 |
| Atlanta | 6.382 | 43.096 | 31.678 | 18.844 |
| Tampa Bay | 2.196 | 27.556 | 34.484 | 35.764 |
| Carolina | 1.074 | 21.434 | 32.354 | 45.138 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 91.068 | 7.422 | 1.292 | 0.218 |
| Arizona | 5.366 | 39.18 | 33.134 | 22.32 |
| Seattle | 2.446 | 33.864 | 36.462 | 27.228 |
| St Louis | 1.12 | 19.534 | 29.112 | 50.234 |
Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| New England | 32.852 | 17.784 | 10.898 | 4.002 | 13.296 | 8.266 | 87.098 |
| Houston | 18.784 | 22.97 | 24.738 | 21.678 | 1.416 | 1.902 | 91.488 |
| Baltimore | 15.52 | 15.612 | 10.116 | 5.752 | 14.368 | 11.658 | 73.026 |
| Pittsburgh | 10.052 | 10.0 | 8.572 | 4.788 | 18.536 | 13.782 | 65.73 |
| Buffalo | 7.212 | 7.008 | 5.37 | 3.372 | 16.368 | 13.912 | 53.242 |
| San Diego | 5.836 | 9.626 | 15.15 | 27.724 | 2.294 | 3.634 | 64.264 |
| Cincinnati | 4.622 | 5.638 | 4.902 | 3.166 | 11.04 | 12.228 | 41.596 |
| NY Jets | 2.064 | 3.416 | 3.714 | 2.274 | 9.438 | 12.156 | 33.062 |
| Oakland | 1.636 | 4.528 | 9.67 | 14.15 | 3.87 | 6.95 | 40.804 |
| Tennessee | 0.89 | 1.962 | 2.832 | 2.974 | 6.218 | 8.714 | 23.59 |
| Kansas City | 0.376 | 0.858 | 2.05 | 5.762 | 1.592 | 2.86 | 13.498 |
| Cleveland | 0.062 | 0.208 | 0.436 | 0.554 | 0.6 | 1.334 | 3.194 |
| Denver | 0.054 | 0.186 | 0.58 | 1.814 | 0.606 | 1.41 | 4.65 |
| Jacksonville | 0.04 | 0.204 | 0.966 | 1.932 | 0.356 | 1.172 | 4.67 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0060 | 0.028 | 0.0020 | 0.022 | 0.058 |
| Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.03 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Green Bay | 72.994 | 12.682 | 3.414 | 0.76 | 8.228 | 1.336 | 99.414 |
| New Orleans | 9.818 | 35.39 | 27.222 | 17.918 | 1.708 | 1.988 | 94.044 |
| San Francisco | 7.996 | 22.906 | 25.716 | 34.45 | 0.58 | 1.022 | 92.67 |
| Detroit | 3.8 | 2.854 | 1.572 | 0.558 | 41.548 | 17.5 | 67.832 |
| Dallas | 2.504 | 13.52 | 17.896 | 13.748 | 5.71 | 11.744 | 65.122 |
| NY Giants | 2.12 | 6.606 | 10.568 | 10.328 | 8.182 | 12.272 | 50.076 |
| Washington | 0.242 | 2.844 | 5.73 | 4.596 | 5.146 | 10.06 | 28.618 |
| Chicago | 0.368 | 0.528 | 0.328 | 0.142 | 17.274 | 19.16 | 37.8 |
| Atlanta | 0.082 | 1.27 | 2.596 | 2.434 | 5.514 | 9.492 | 21.388 |
| Philadelphia | 0.048 | 0.916 | 2.79 | 5.544 | 3.308 | 7.436 | 20.042 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.018 | 0.216 | 0.62 | 1.342 | 0.924 | 2.976 | 6.096 |
| Arizona | 0.0060 | 0.13 | 0.738 | 4.492 | 0.306 | 1.076 | 6.748 |
| Seattle | 0.0040 | 0.078 | 0.45 | 1.914 | 0.528 | 1.378 | 4.352 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.058 | 0.306 | 0.71 | 0.972 | 2.246 | 4.292 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 0.054 | 1.064 | 0.014 | 0.114 | 1.248 |
| Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.058 | 0.2 | 0.258 |
Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011