2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 7

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 65.536 26.206 8.164 0.094
Buffalo 22.962 41.786 33.688 1.564
NY Jets 11.468 31.648 54.58 2.304
Miami 0.034 0.36 3.568 96.038

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 47.0 31.704 17.582 3.714
Pittsburgh 33.412 37.516 23.676 5.396
Cincinnati 18.328 26.552 44.54 10.58
Cleveland 1.26 4.228 14.202 80.31

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 88.17 10.118 1.684 0.028
Tennessee 8.658 62.656 26.004 2.682
Jacksonville 3.142 25.362 59.914 11.582
Indianapolis 0.03 1.864 12.398 85.708

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 58.336 27.224 11.714 2.726
Oakland 29.984 38.14 23.832 8.044
Kansas City 9.046 24.016 37.532 29.406
Denver 2.634 10.62 26.922 59.824

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 47.668 26.578 16.49 9.264
NY Giants 29.622 31.084 24.258 15.036
Washington 13.412 24.08 30.518 31.99
Philadelphia 9.298 18.258 28.734 43.71

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 89.85 9.124 1.022 0.0040
Detroit 8.784 62.88 27.644 0.692
Chicago 1.366 27.812 67.89 2.932
Minnesota 0.0 0.184 3.444 96.372

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.348 7.914 1.484 0.254
Atlanta 6.382 43.096 31.678 18.844
Tampa Bay 2.196 27.556 34.484 35.764
Carolina 1.074 21.434 32.354 45.138

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.068 7.422 1.292 0.218
Arizona 5.366 39.18 33.134 22.32
Seattle 2.446 33.864 36.462 27.228
St Louis 1.12 19.534 29.112 50.234

Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 32.852 17.784 10.898 4.002 13.296 8.266 87.098
Houston 18.784 22.97 24.738 21.678 1.416 1.902 91.488
Baltimore 15.52 15.612 10.116 5.752 14.368 11.658 73.026
Pittsburgh 10.052 10.0 8.572 4.788 18.536 13.782 65.73
Buffalo 7.212 7.008 5.37 3.372 16.368 13.912 53.242
San Diego 5.836 9.626 15.15 27.724 2.294 3.634 64.264
Cincinnati 4.622 5.638 4.902 3.166 11.04 12.228 41.596
NY Jets 2.064 3.416 3.714 2.274 9.438 12.156 33.062
Oakland 1.636 4.528 9.67 14.15 3.87 6.95 40.804
Tennessee 0.89 1.962 2.832 2.974 6.218 8.714 23.59
Kansas City 0.376 0.858 2.05 5.762 1.592 2.86 13.498
Cleveland 0.062 0.208 0.436 0.554 0.6 1.334 3.194
Denver 0.054 0.186 0.58 1.814 0.606 1.41 4.65
Jacksonville 0.04 0.204 0.966 1.932 0.356 1.172 4.67
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.028 0.0020 0.022 0.058
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.03

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 72.994 12.682 3.414 0.76 8.228 1.336 99.414
New Orleans 9.818 35.39 27.222 17.918 1.708 1.988 94.044
San Francisco 7.996 22.906 25.716 34.45 0.58 1.022 92.67
Detroit 3.8 2.854 1.572 0.558 41.548 17.5 67.832
Dallas 2.504 13.52 17.896 13.748 5.71 11.744 65.122
NY Giants 2.12 6.606 10.568 10.328 8.182 12.272 50.076
Washington 0.242 2.844 5.73 4.596 5.146 10.06 28.618
Chicago 0.368 0.528 0.328 0.142 17.274 19.16 37.8
Atlanta 0.082 1.27 2.596 2.434 5.514 9.492 21.388
Philadelphia 0.048 0.916 2.79 5.544 3.308 7.436 20.042
Tampa Bay 0.018 0.216 0.62 1.342 0.924 2.976 6.096
Arizona 0.0060 0.13 0.738 4.492 0.306 1.076 6.748
Seattle 0.0040 0.078 0.45 1.914 0.528 1.378 4.352
Carolina 0.0 0.058 0.306 0.71 0.972 2.246 4.292
St Louis 0.0 0.0020 0.054 1.064 0.014 0.114 1.248
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.058 0.2 0.258

Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011

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