2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 12
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Note that these predictions are based on updated team efficiency ratings, while the analysis of the AFC and NFC playoff races were based on last weeks team efficiencies. Therefore, there might be slight differences in the percentages below and the percentages in those two articles.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 98.14 | 1.64 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| NY Jets | 0.78 | 64.54 | 24.22 | 10.46 |
| Miami | 0.84 | 21.42 | 53.18 | 24.56 |
| Buffalo | 0.24 | 12.4 | 22.42 | 64.94 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Cincinnati | 82.8 | 15.44 | 1.76 | 0.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 12.48 | 47.54 | 39.98 | 0.0 |
| Baltimore | 4.72 | 37.02 | 58.26 | 0.0 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Indianapolis | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 58.36 | 23.42 | 18.22 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 17.98 | 45.54 | 36.48 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 23.66 | 31.04 | 45.3 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Diego | 78.32 | 21.68 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Denver | 21.68 | 78.32 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.92 | 44.08 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.08 | 55.92 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Dallas | 50.54 | 29.92 | 19.54 | 0.0 |
| Philadelphia | 33.14 | 42.14 | 24.72 | 0.0 |
| NY Giants | 16.32 | 27.94 | 55.48 | 0.26 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.26 | 99.74 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Minnesota | 99.74 | 0.26 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Green Bay | 0.26 | 97.94 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Chicago | 0.0 | 1.8 | 97.68 | 0.52 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.52 | 99.48 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New Orleans | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Atlanta | 0.0 | 91.58 | 8.42 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 8.4 | 90.62 | 0.98 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.96 | 99.02 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Arizona | 83.24 | 16.68 | 0.08 | 0.0 |
| San Francisco | 16.74 | 74.08 | 9.18 | 0.0 |
| Seattle | 0.02 | 9.22 | 90.62 | 0.14 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 99.86 |
Generated: Wed Dec 02 22:48:41 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Indianapolis | 99.34 | 0.56 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| San Diego | 0.36 | 51.42 | 17.9 | 8.64 | 11.64 | 6.34 | 96.3 |
| New England | 0.1 | 17.94 | 34.24 | 45.86 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 98.28 |
| Cincinnati | 0.02 | 15.9 | 31.76 | 35.12 | 1.5 | 8.42 | 92.72 |
| Denver | 0.18 | 11.8 | 6.74 | 2.96 | 32.42 | 25.84 | 79.94 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 1.96 | 7.56 | 2.96 | 29.5 | 21.1 | 63.08 |
| Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.42 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 16.08 | 18.26 | 39.06 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.18 | 0.6 | 0.24 | 2.86 | 3.88 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.12 | 0.72 | 0.02 | 0.48 | 1.34 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.72 | 11.24 | 18.96 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.24 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.82 | 4.6 | 5.42 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| New Orleans | 85.74 | 14.14 | 0.12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| Minnesota | 14.24 | 80.62 | 4.02 | 0.86 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 100.0 |
| Dallas | 0.02 | 1.3 | 36.02 | 13.2 | 9.24 | 21.62 | 81.4 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 1.86 | 21.7 | 59.68 | 0.54 | 1.98 | 85.76 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 1.56 | 28.66 | 2.92 | 19.1 | 23.6 | 75.84 |
| NY Giants | 0.0 | 0.3 | 8.26 | 7.76 | 8.7 | 20.12 | 45.14 |
| Green Bay | 0.0 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 60.08 | 25.06 | 85.4 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.18 | 15.56 | 0.98 | 2.9 | 20.62 |
| Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.18 | 4.4 | 5.58 |
| Seattle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Chicago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Wed Dec 02 22:48:41 EST 2009