NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	45.956	35.908	18.136
Miami	0.0	26.752	36.808	36.44
Buffalo	0.0	27.292	27.284	45.424

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	75.058	22.092	2.85	0.0
Cincinnati	12.314	35.182	51.614	0.89
Pittsburgh	12.628	42.608	42.494	2.27
Cleveland	0.0	0.118	3.042	96.84

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	97.026	2.974	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	2.974	96.344	0.682	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.682	89.864	9.454
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	9.454	90.546

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Diego	0.0	82.026	17.636	0.338
Oakland	0.0	17.416	63.462	19.122
Kansas City	0.0	0.558	18.902	80.54

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	54.648	32.796	12.462	0.094
Washington	30.482	39.022	29.812	0.684
Dallas	14.87	28.124	56.884	0.122
Philadelphia	0.0	0.058	0.842	99.1

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	67.378	27.954	4.668	0.0
Chicago	30.582	59.418	9.456	0.544
Minnesota	2.04	12.454	77.92	7.586
Detroit	0.0	0.174	7.956	91.87

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	71.084	26.474	2.442
New Orleans	0.0	26.56	42.328	31.112
Carolina	0.0	2.356	31.198	66.446

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	85.582	13.968	0.45	0.0
Seattle	14.082	76.162	9.27	0.486
St Louis	0.336	9.634	85.168	4.862
Arizona	0.0	0.236	5.112	94.652

Generated: Wed Dec 05 02:27:07 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	84.994	9.726	2.284	0.022	2.974	0.0	100.0
New England	10.058	23.218	36.842	29.882	0.0	0.0	100.0
Denver	3.954	52.852	30.25	12.944	0.0	0.0	100.0
Baltimore	0.432	12.97	26.65	35.006	12.29	10.894	98.242
Indianapolis	0.562	1.184	0.996	0.232	54.944	25.492	83.41
Cincinnati	0.0	0.032	1.692	10.59	12.854	26.318	51.486
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.018	1.286	11.324	15.834	30.712	59.174
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.652	2.73	3.382
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.232	1.616	1.848
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.188	1.596	1.784
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.31	0.33
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.008	0.236	0.244
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.004	0.096	0.1
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	87.682	8.762	2.96	0.596	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Francisco	6.804	52.29	23.23	3.258	8.71	4.304	98.596
Green Bay	3.008	16.818	32.624	14.928	9.438	12.288	89.104
Chicago	1.718	9.226	14.522	5.116	25.032	23.236	78.85
NY Giants	0.484	5.028	17.342	31.794	8.262	11.378	74.288
Seattle	0.304	7.706	4.534	1.538	39.654	20.994	74.73
Washington	0.0	0.152	3.714	26.616	3.558	8.972	43.012
Dallas	0.0	0.004	0.436	14.43	0.542	3.306	18.718
Minnesota	0.0	0.01	0.494	1.536	0.828	3.462	6.33
St Louis	0.0	0.004	0.144	0.188	1.834	4.29	6.46
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.91	6.634	8.544
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.226	1.026	1.252
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.004	0.08	0.084
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.002	0.03	0.032
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 05 02:27:07 EST 2012

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