NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	53.788	43.492	2.72
Miami	0.0	23.956	45.632	30.412
Buffalo	0.0	22.256	10.876	66.868

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	75.692	24.308	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	12.276	40.996	46.728	0.0
Pittsburgh	12.032	34.696	50.866	2.406
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	2.406	97.594

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Diego	0.0	91.816	8.184	0.0
Oakland	0.0	8.184	91.816	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Washington	54.692	25.292	20.016	0.0
Dallas	29.97	34.12	35.91	0.0
NY Giants	15.338	40.588	44.074	0.0
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	60.304	39.696	0.0
Chicago	0.0	39.696	60.304	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
New Orleans	0.0	45.88	30.002	24.118
Tampa Bay	0.0	29.206	45.88	24.914
Carolina	0.0	24.914	24.118	50.968

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	94.108	5.892	0.0	0.0
Seattle	5.892	94.108	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	97.3	2.7
Arizona	0.0	0.0	2.7	97.3

Generated: Wed Dec 19 12:21:39 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	90.676	5.464	3.86	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Denver	7.808	77.942	14.25	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
New England	1.516	16.594	67.512	14.378	0.0	0.0	100.0
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	14.378	61.314	6.474	17.834	100.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.276	3.82	37.296	53.392
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.032	7.352	26.224	45.608
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	82.354	17.526	99.88
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.12	1.12
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	90.386	7.304	2.31	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Francisco	5.924	65.124	23.06	0.0	5.892	0.0	100.0
Green Bay	3.69	23.922	67.896	4.492	0.0	0.0	100.0
Seattle	0.0	3.65	2.242	0.0	73.582	15.75	95.224
Washington	0.0	0.0	2.488	52.204	2.074	14.966	71.732
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	2.004	13.334	13.984	21.738	51.06
Dallas	0.0	0.0	0.0	29.97	0.0	4.0	33.97
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.446	21.218	23.664
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.022	22.03	24.052
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.196	0.196
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.102	0.102
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 19 12:21:39 EST 2012

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