2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 15

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 53.788 43.492 2.72
Miami 0.0 23.956 45.632 30.412
Buffalo 0.0 22.256 10.876 66.868

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 75.692 24.308 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 12.276 40.996 46.728 0.0
Pittsburgh 12.032 34.696 50.866 2.406
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 2.406 97.594

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 91.816 8.184 0.0
Oakland 0.0 8.184 91.816 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Washington 54.692 25.292 20.016 0.0
Dallas 29.97 34.12 35.91 0.0
NY Giants 15.338 40.588 44.074 0.0
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 60.304 39.696 0.0
Chicago 0.0 39.696 60.304 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.0 45.88 30.002 24.118
Tampa Bay 0.0 29.206 45.88 24.914
Carolina 0.0 24.914 24.118 50.968

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 94.108 5.892 0.0 0.0
Seattle 5.892 94.108 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 97.3 2.7
Arizona 0.0 0.0 2.7 97.3

Generated: Wed Dec 19 12:21:39 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 90.676 5.464 3.86 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Denver 7.808 77.942 14.25 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 1.516 16.594 67.512 14.378 0.0 0.0 100.0
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 14.378 61.314 6.474 17.834 100.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.276 3.82 37.296 53.392
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.032 7.352 26.224 45.608
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.354 17.526 99.88
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.12 1.12
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 90.386 7.304 2.31 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 5.924 65.124 23.06 0.0 5.892 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 3.69 23.922 67.896 4.492 0.0 0.0 100.0
Seattle 0.0 3.65 2.242 0.0 73.582 15.75 95.224
Washington 0.0 0.0 2.488 52.204 2.074 14.966 71.732
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 2.004 13.334 13.984 21.738 51.06
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.97 0.0 4.0 33.97
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.446 21.218 23.664
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.022 22.03 24.052
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.196 0.196
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.102 0.102
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 19 12:21:39 EST 2012

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