2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 14

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.092 1.908 0.0 0.0
Miami 1.908 83.402 13.524 1.166
NY Jets 0.0 14.124 67.27 18.606
Buffalo 0.0 0.566 19.206 80.228

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 98.892 1.108 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 1.108 73.036 24.992 0.864
Pittsburgh 0.0 20.98 51.968 27.052
Cleveland 0.0 4.876 23.04 72.084

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 80.26 18.866 0.874
Jacksonville 0.0 19.74 79.048 1.212
Houston 0.0 0.0 2.086 97.914

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 98.054 1.946 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 1.946 98.054 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.0 94.918 5.082
Oakland 0.0 0.0 5.082 94.918

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 81.982 17.78 0.238 0.0
Dallas 18.018 80.568 1.414 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 1.652 96.27 2.078
Washington 0.0 0.0 2.078 97.922

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 70.856 23.542 5.602 0.0
Chicago 12.71 44.658 42.632 0.0
Green Bay 16.434 31.8 51.766 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 94.596 5.404 0.0 0.0
Carolina 5.404 94.596 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 51.102 48.898
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 48.898 51.102

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 97.572 2.428 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 2.428 91.628 5.944 0.0
Arizona 0.0 5.944 93.972 0.084
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.084 99.916

Generated: Wed Dec 11 22:10:26 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 78.992 15.408 3.41 0.244 1.946 0.0 100.0
New England 15.61 38.088 36.556 7.838 0.246 1.602 99.94
Cincinnati 4.114 41.944 49.656 3.178 0.068 0.618 99.578
Kansas City 1.242 0.564 0.14 0.0 95.598 2.432 99.976
Indianapolis 0.042 3.712 8.322 87.924 0.0 0.0 100.0
Miami 0.0 0.22 1.314 0.374 2.082 62.408 66.398
Baltimore 0.0 0.064 0.602 0.442 0.06 22.636 23.804
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.51 4.51
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.122 4.122
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.828 0.828
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.76 0.76
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.042 0.042
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.024
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.016
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 94.01 3.512 0.05 0.0 2.384 0.044 100.0
New Orleans 5.756 86.954 1.886 0.0 3.862 1.48 99.938
Philadelphia 0.008 2.348 71.062 8.564 0.332 1.892 84.206
Carolina 0.092 4.982 0.33 0.0 52.058 28.612 86.074
San Francisco 0.134 2.202 0.092 0.0 37.516 53.0 92.944
Detroit 0.0 0.0 12.352 58.504 0.002 0.18 71.038
Chicago 0.0 0.0 6.74 5.97 0.006 0.116 12.832
Dallas 0.0 0.002 5.1 12.916 0.012 0.826 18.856
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 2.388 14.046 0.0 0.216 16.65
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.828 13.634 17.462
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 11 22:10:26 EST 2013

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