2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 13

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 96.62 3.38 0.0 0.0
Miami 3.362 76.408 14.92 5.31
NY Jets 0.018 10.7 45.678 43.604
Buffalo 0.0 9.512 39.402 51.086

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 98.238 1.568 0.19 0.004
Baltimore 1.474 45.62 46.2 6.706
Pittsburgh 0.284 39.122 31.892 28.702
Cleveland 0.004 13.69 21.718 64.588

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.932 0.068 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.068 87.758 10.39 1.784
Jacksonville 0.0 7.478 45.34 47.182
Houston 0.0 4.696 44.27 51.034

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 98.178 1.822 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 1.822 97.392 0.786 0.0
San Diego 0.0 0.786 84.476 14.738
Oakland 0.0 0.0 14.738 85.262

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 65.516 31.67 2.814 0.0
Dallas 34.29 61.988 3.722 0.0
NY Giants 0.194 6.342 88.32 5.144
Washington 0.0 0.0 5.144 94.856

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 84.684 13.302 1.996 0.018
Green Bay 9.994 41.53 48.214 0.262
Chicago 5.32 45.132 48.816 0.732
Minnesota 0.002 0.036 0.974 98.988

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 79.762 20.238 0.0 0.0
Carolina 20.238 79.762 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 57.446 42.554
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 42.554 57.446

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 99.134 0.866 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.866 83.316 15.818 0.0
Arizona 0.0 15.818 81.022 3.16
St Louis 0.0 0.0 3.16 96.84

Generated: Wed Dec 04 23:14:18 EST 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 76.95 15.276 5.27 0.682 1.804 0.018 100.0
New England 13.534 29.842 36.4 16.844 0.922 2.178 99.72
Cincinnati 7.106 40.348 34.914 15.87 0.218 0.91 99.366
Indianapolis 1.338 13.608 20.96 64.026 0.0 0.004 99.936
Kansas City 1.072 0.562 0.172 0.016 90.442 6.882 99.146
Miami 0.0 0.268 1.888 1.206 5.336 45.746 54.444
Baltimore 0.0 0.096 0.388 0.99 0.636 17.688 19.798
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.28 0.204 11.56 12.048
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.064 0.024 4.522 4.614
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.414 4.94 5.354
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.0 2.272 2.29
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.646 1.646
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.91 0.914
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.696 0.696
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.028
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 98.254 0.862 0.018 0.0 0.852 0.014 100.0
New Orleans 1.346 77.162 1.254 0.0 16.508 3.416 99.686
Carolina 0.334 19.388 0.512 0.004 59.658 15.484 95.38
Philadelphia 0.0 1.652 42.69 21.174 0.856 4.516 70.888
Detroit 0.0 0.108 42.27 42.306 0.016 0.382 85.082
San Francisco 0.066 0.758 0.04 0.002 16.386 60.16 77.412
Dallas 0.0 0.07 8.386 25.834 0.224 2.436 36.95
Chicago 0.0 0.0 2.872 2.448 0.008 0.272 5.6
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 1.882 8.112 0.02 0.788 10.802
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.076 0.118 0.0 0.172 0.366
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.472 12.36 17.832
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.002
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 04 23:14:18 EST 2013

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