NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	80.06	12.238	3.716	0.798	2.854	0.28	99.946
Denver	12.844	57.746	20.18	8.42	0.3	0.26	99.75
New England	3.628	9.768	20.84	49.054	1.982	3.464	88.736
Baltimore	2.036	14.054	30.908	11.13	19.88	11.754	89.762
Pittsburgh	0.546	4.728	20.182	14.5	20.198	17.49	77.644
Indianapolis	0.876	1.066	0.752	0.434	32.772	24.01	59.91
Miami	0.0	0.146	2.088	10.524	2.332	6.384	21.474
San Diego	0.006	0.2	0.292	0.238	8.704	11.448	20.888
Cincinnati	0.004	0.044	0.796	1.066	4.334	8.708	14.952
NY Jets	0.0	0.004	0.138	2.55	1.584	4.644	8.92
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.076	1.184	1.288	3.152	5.7
Tennessee	0.0	0.006	0.018	0.036	2.994	6.102	9.156
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.014	0.06	0.746	2.114	2.934
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.006	0.032	0.18	0.218
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.008	0.008
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.002	0.002

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	48.508	24.262	15.724	5.47	1.428	1.728	97.12
San Francisco	22.872	27.972	19.114	4.746	11.51	6.634	92.848
Chicago	13.132	14.292	12.788	4.18	19.656	12.872	76.92
Green Bay	7.106	11.366	15.602	6.008	14.214	14.288	68.584
Seattle	3.78	9.486	7.472	2.92	28.912	17.358	69.928
NY Giants	3.516	8.128	15.046	28.994	5.94	8.142	69.766
Minnesota	0.386	1.408	4.428	4.88	4.19	9.294	24.586
Tampa Bay	0.314	0.992	1.956	2.122	3.824	8.192	17.4
Detroit	0.252	0.904	2.038	1.23	5.016	7.308	16.748
Dallas	0.088	0.858	4.346	30.358	1.77	5.058	42.478
New Orleans	0.032	0.09	0.222	0.21	1.124	2.576	4.254
St Louis	0.008	0.138	0.666	0.452	1.472	3.34	6.076
Washington	0.0	0.048	0.392	4.844	0.246	1.114	6.644
Arizona	0.006	0.056	0.138	0.174	0.67	1.616	2.66
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.054	3.328	0.004	0.14	3.526
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.014	0.084	0.024	0.34	0.462

Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	83.29	12.918	3.412	0.38
Miami	12.758	41.202	28.528	17.512
NY Jets	2.692	27.094	40.114	30.1
Buffalo	1.26	18.786	27.946	52.008

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	58.128	36.598	5.254	0.02
Pittsburgh	39.956	47.978	11.004	1.062
Cincinnati	1.91	14.724	72.93	10.436
Cleveland	0.006	0.7	10.812	88.482

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	96.812	3.13	0.058	0.0
Indianapolis	3.128	80.604	16.228	0.04
Tennessee	0.06	16.194	78.42	5.326
Jacksonville	0.0	0.072	5.294	94.634

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	99.19	0.794	0.016	0.0
San Diego	0.736	75.108	23.932	0.224
Oakland	0.074	23.99	70.858	5.078
Kansas City	0.0	0.108	5.194	94.698

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	55.684	34.276	8.554	1.486
Dallas	35.65	43.098	16.566	4.686
Washington	5.284	13.644	36.762	44.31
Philadelphia	3.382	8.982	38.118	49.518

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	44.392	34.436	14.376	6.796
Green Bay	40.082	32.022	17.172	10.724
Minnesota	11.102	22.004	41.038	25.856
Detroit	4.424	11.538	27.414	56.624

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	93.964	5.63	0.382	0.024
Tampa Bay	5.384	53.638	27.304	13.674
New Orleans	0.554	22.198	35.292	41.956
Carolina	0.098	18.534	37.022	44.346

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	74.704	22.366	2.674	0.256
Seattle	23.658	63.422	10.76	2.16
St Louis	1.264	8.484	52.126	38.126
Arizona	0.374	5.728	34.44	59.458

Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 13th, 2012 at 9:07 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.