2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 10

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 80.06 12.238 3.716 0.798 2.854 0.28 99.946
Denver 12.844 57.746 20.18 8.42 0.3 0.26 99.75
New England 3.628 9.768 20.84 49.054 1.982 3.464 88.736
Baltimore 2.036 14.054 30.908 11.13 19.88 11.754 89.762
Pittsburgh 0.546 4.728 20.182 14.5 20.198 17.49 77.644
Indianapolis 0.876 1.066 0.752 0.434 32.772 24.01 59.91
Miami 0.0 0.146 2.088 10.524 2.332 6.384 21.474
San Diego 0.006 0.2 0.292 0.238 8.704 11.448 20.888
Cincinnati 0.004 0.044 0.796 1.066 4.334 8.708 14.952
NY Jets 0.0 0.004 0.138 2.55 1.584 4.644 8.92
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.076 1.184 1.288 3.152 5.7
Tennessee 0.0 0.006 0.018 0.036 2.994 6.102 9.156
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.06 0.746 2.114 2.934
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.032 0.18 0.218
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.008 0.008
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 48.508 24.262 15.724 5.47 1.428 1.728 97.12
San Francisco 22.872 27.972 19.114 4.746 11.51 6.634 92.848
Chicago 13.132 14.292 12.788 4.18 19.656 12.872 76.92
Green Bay 7.106 11.366 15.602 6.008 14.214 14.288 68.584
Seattle 3.78 9.486 7.472 2.92 28.912 17.358 69.928
NY Giants 3.516 8.128 15.046 28.994 5.94 8.142 69.766
Minnesota 0.386 1.408 4.428 4.88 4.19 9.294 24.586
Tampa Bay 0.314 0.992 1.956 2.122 3.824 8.192 17.4
Detroit 0.252 0.904 2.038 1.23 5.016 7.308 16.748
Dallas 0.088 0.858 4.346 30.358 1.77 5.058 42.478
New Orleans 0.032 0.09 0.222 0.21 1.124 2.576 4.254
St Louis 0.008 0.138 0.666 0.452 1.472 3.34 6.076
Washington 0.0 0.048 0.392 4.844 0.246 1.114 6.644
Arizona 0.006 0.056 0.138 0.174 0.67 1.616 2.66
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.054 3.328 0.004 0.14 3.526
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.084 0.024 0.34 0.462

Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 83.29 12.918 3.412 0.38
Miami 12.758 41.202 28.528 17.512
NY Jets 2.692 27.094 40.114 30.1
Buffalo 1.26 18.786 27.946 52.008

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 58.128 36.598 5.254 0.02
Pittsburgh 39.956 47.978 11.004 1.062
Cincinnati 1.91 14.724 72.93 10.436
Cleveland 0.006 0.7 10.812 88.482

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 96.812 3.13 0.058 0.0
Indianapolis 3.128 80.604 16.228 0.04
Tennessee 0.06 16.194 78.42 5.326
Jacksonville 0.0 0.072 5.294 94.634

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 99.19 0.794 0.016 0.0
San Diego 0.736 75.108 23.932 0.224
Oakland 0.074 23.99 70.858 5.078
Kansas City 0.0 0.108 5.194 94.698

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 55.684 34.276 8.554 1.486
Dallas 35.65 43.098 16.566 4.686
Washington 5.284 13.644 36.762 44.31
Philadelphia 3.382 8.982 38.118 49.518

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 44.392 34.436 14.376 6.796
Green Bay 40.082 32.022 17.172 10.724
Minnesota 11.102 22.004 41.038 25.856
Detroit 4.424 11.538 27.414 56.624

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 93.964 5.63 0.382 0.024
Tampa Bay 5.384 53.638 27.304 13.674
New Orleans 0.554 22.198 35.292 41.956
Carolina 0.098 18.534 37.022 44.346

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 74.704 22.366 2.674 0.256
Seattle 23.658 63.422 10.76 2.16
St Louis 1.264 8.484 52.126 38.126
Arizona 0.374 5.728 34.44 59.458

Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012

2 Responses to “2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 10”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I think you may have incorrectly recorded Denver as having lost to Carolina last week. The “Predicted Wins” section of your program currently has Denver as winning at most 12 games, even though they’ve only lost 3 so far. Also, it shows that Carolina could win 10 games, even though they’ve already lost 7.

  2. admin says:

    Thanks, I’ve updated the tables and software to fix this error. Sorry about that.

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