Here are this weeks predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Houston | 80.06 | 12.238 | 3.716 | 0.798 | 2.854 | 0.28 | 99.946 |
Denver | 12.844 | 57.746 | 20.18 | 8.42 | 0.3 | 0.26 | 99.75 |
New England | 3.628 | 9.768 | 20.84 | 49.054 | 1.982 | 3.464 | 88.736 |
Baltimore | 2.036 | 14.054 | 30.908 | 11.13 | 19.88 | 11.754 | 89.762 |
Pittsburgh | 0.546 | 4.728 | 20.182 | 14.5 | 20.198 | 17.49 | 77.644 |
Indianapolis | 0.876 | 1.066 | 0.752 | 0.434 | 32.772 | 24.01 | 59.91 |
Miami | 0.0 | 0.146 | 2.088 | 10.524 | 2.332 | 6.384 | 21.474 |
San Diego | 0.006 | 0.2 | 0.292 | 0.238 | 8.704 | 11.448 | 20.888 |
Cincinnati | 0.004 | 0.044 | 0.796 | 1.066 | 4.334 | 8.708 | 14.952 |
NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.138 | 2.55 | 1.584 | 4.644 | 8.92 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.076 | 1.184 | 1.288 | 3.152 | 5.7 |
Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.018 | 0.036 | 2.994 | 6.102 | 9.156 |
Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.06 | 0.746 | 2.114 | 2.934 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.032 | 0.18 | 0.218 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Atlanta | 48.508 | 24.262 | 15.724 | 5.47 | 1.428 | 1.728 | 97.12 |
San Francisco | 22.872 | 27.972 | 19.114 | 4.746 | 11.51 | 6.634 | 92.848 |
Chicago | 13.132 | 14.292 | 12.788 | 4.18 | 19.656 | 12.872 | 76.92 |
Green Bay | 7.106 | 11.366 | 15.602 | 6.008 | 14.214 | 14.288 | 68.584 |
Seattle | 3.78 | 9.486 | 7.472 | 2.92 | 28.912 | 17.358 | 69.928 |
NY Giants | 3.516 | 8.128 | 15.046 | 28.994 | 5.94 | 8.142 | 69.766 |
Minnesota | 0.386 | 1.408 | 4.428 | 4.88 | 4.19 | 9.294 | 24.586 |
Tampa Bay | 0.314 | 0.992 | 1.956 | 2.122 | 3.824 | 8.192 | 17.4 |
Detroit | 0.252 | 0.904 | 2.038 | 1.23 | 5.016 | 7.308 | 16.748 |
Dallas | 0.088 | 0.858 | 4.346 | 30.358 | 1.77 | 5.058 | 42.478 |
New Orleans | 0.032 | 0.09 | 0.222 | 0.21 | 1.124 | 2.576 | 4.254 |
St Louis | 0.008 | 0.138 | 0.666 | 0.452 | 1.472 | 3.34 | 6.076 |
Washington | 0.0 | 0.048 | 0.392 | 4.844 | 0.246 | 1.114 | 6.644 |
Arizona | 0.006 | 0.056 | 0.138 | 0.174 | 0.67 | 1.616 | 2.66 |
Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.054 | 3.328 | 0.004 | 0.14 | 3.526 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.084 | 0.024 | 0.34 | 0.462 |
Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New England | 83.29 | 12.918 | 3.412 | 0.38 |
Miami | 12.758 | 41.202 | 28.528 | 17.512 |
NY Jets | 2.692 | 27.094 | 40.114 | 30.1 |
Buffalo | 1.26 | 18.786 | 27.946 | 52.008 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Baltimore | 58.128 | 36.598 | 5.254 | 0.02 |
Pittsburgh | 39.956 | 47.978 | 11.004 | 1.062 |
Cincinnati | 1.91 | 14.724 | 72.93 | 10.436 |
Cleveland | 0.006 | 0.7 | 10.812 | 88.482 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Houston | 96.812 | 3.13 | 0.058 | 0.0 |
Indianapolis | 3.128 | 80.604 | 16.228 | 0.04 |
Tennessee | 0.06 | 16.194 | 78.42 | 5.326 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.072 | 5.294 | 94.634 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Denver | 99.19 | 0.794 | 0.016 | 0.0 |
San Diego | 0.736 | 75.108 | 23.932 | 0.224 |
Oakland | 0.074 | 23.99 | 70.858 | 5.078 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.108 | 5.194 | 94.698 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
NY Giants | 55.684 | 34.276 | 8.554 | 1.486 |
Dallas | 35.65 | 43.098 | 16.566 | 4.686 |
Washington | 5.284 | 13.644 | 36.762 | 44.31 |
Philadelphia | 3.382 | 8.982 | 38.118 | 49.518 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Chicago | 44.392 | 34.436 | 14.376 | 6.796 |
Green Bay | 40.082 | 32.022 | 17.172 | 10.724 |
Minnesota | 11.102 | 22.004 | 41.038 | 25.856 |
Detroit | 4.424 | 11.538 | 27.414 | 56.624 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Atlanta | 93.964 | 5.63 | 0.382 | 0.024 |
Tampa Bay | 5.384 | 53.638 | 27.304 | 13.674 |
New Orleans | 0.554 | 22.198 | 35.292 | 41.956 |
Carolina | 0.098 | 18.534 | 37.022 | 44.346 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Francisco | 74.704 | 22.366 | 2.674 | 0.256 |
Seattle | 23.658 | 63.422 | 10.76 | 2.16 |
St Louis | 1.264 | 8.484 | 52.126 | 38.126 |
Arizona | 0.374 | 5.728 | 34.44 | 59.458 |
Generated: Sat Nov 17 00:44:56 EST 2012
I think you may have incorrectly recorded Denver as having lost to Carolina last week. The “Predicted Wins” section of your program currently has Denver as winning at most 12 games, even though they’ve only lost 3 so far. Also, it shows that Carolina could win 10 games, even though they’ve already lost 7.
Thanks, I’ve updated the tables and software to fix this error. Sorry about that.