2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 12

Edit: I had an error in the week 11 NO Oakland game. It is now corrected. Sorry for the error.

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 95.064 4.826 0.11 0.0
Miami 4.838 40.784 31.606 22.772
NY Jets 0.032 29.804 40.84 29.324
Buffalo 0.066 24.586 27.444 47.904

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 91.848 7.538 0.614 0.0
Cincinnati 3.704 46.152 48.864 1.28
Pittsburgh 4.448 46.028 46.218 3.306
Cleveland 0.0 0.282 4.304 95.414

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 98.15 1.85 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 1.85 91.584 6.56 0.006
Tennessee 0.0 6.548 82.25 11.202
Jacksonville 0.0 0.018 11.19 88.792

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0 78.884 21.018 0.098
Oakland 0.0 21.048 73.606 5.346
Kansas City 0.0 0.068 5.376 94.556

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 72.054 21.504 6.292 0.15
Washington 18.78 45.492 31.838 3.89
Dallas 9.064 31.908 53.58 5.448
Philadelphia 0.102 1.096 8.29 90.512

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 48.018 42.642 8.296 1.044
Green Bay 46.428 37.44 14.462 1.67
Minnesota 5.554 18.616 60.484 15.346
Detroit 0.0 1.302 16.758 81.94

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 99.276 0.72 0.004 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.692 68.936 26.212 4.16
New Orleans 0.032 25.854 35.326 38.788
Carolina 0.0 4.49 38.458 57.052

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 96.234 3.68 0.086 0.0
Seattle 3.652 84.432 9.798 2.118
St Louis 0.114 9.494 69.736 20.656
Arizona 0.0 2.394 20.38 77.226

Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 82.098 10.934 4.35 0.768 1.836 0.014 100.0
Denver 7.232 50.29 26.254 16.224 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 7.036 14.374 25.63 48.024 1.742 1.736 98.542
Baltimore 3.446 23.85 40.902 23.65 5.93 1.99 99.768
Indianapolis 0.188 0.512 0.642 0.508 46.138 26.678 74.666
Cincinnati 0.0 0.016 1.112 2.576 20.176 24.474 48.354
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.024 0.97 3.454 17.538 23.784 45.77
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.14 4.698 1.92 6.81 13.568
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.032 1.522 4.448 6.002
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.818 4.492 6.31
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.066 0.596 2.76 3.422
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.74 2.508 3.248
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.166 0.194
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.138 0.154
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 66.04 21.01 9.062 3.164 0.342 0.292 99.91
San Francisco 25.342 49.92 17.066 3.906 2.31 1.002 99.546
Chicago 4.814 12.2 21.79 9.214 25.736 13.364 87.118
NY Giants 2.074 7.616 24.266 38.098 5.912 7.626 85.592
Green Bay 1.546 7.282 22.274 15.326 19.662 14.046 80.136
Seattle 0.166 1.672 1.23 0.584 31.02 22.096 56.768
Minnesota 0.008 0.176 1.664 3.706 3.876 7.364 16.794
Washington 0.002 0.062 2.114 16.602 3.156 9.88 31.816
Tampa Bay 0.008 0.06 0.266 0.358 4.908 11.986 17.586
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.212 8.852 0.954 4.61 14.628
New Orleans 0.0 0.002 0.022 0.008 0.936 2.958 3.926
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.08 0.684 2.568 3.366
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.102 0.0 0.0 0.102
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.482 2.06 2.542
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.128 0.15
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02

Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012

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