Edit: I had an error in the week 11 NO Oakland game. It is now corrected. Sorry for the error.
Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 95.064 | 4.826 | 0.11 | 0.0 |
| Miami | 4.838 | 40.784 | 31.606 | 22.772 |
| NY Jets | 0.032 | 29.804 | 40.84 | 29.324 |
| Buffalo | 0.066 | 24.586 | 27.444 | 47.904 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 91.848 | 7.538 | 0.614 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 3.704 | 46.152 | 48.864 | 1.28 |
| Pittsburgh | 4.448 | 46.028 | 46.218 | 3.306 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.282 | 4.304 | 95.414 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Houston | 98.15 | 1.85 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Indianapolis | 1.85 | 91.584 | 6.56 | 0.006 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 6.548 | 82.25 | 11.202 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.018 | 11.19 | 88.792 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 78.884 | 21.018 | 0.098 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 21.048 | 73.606 | 5.346 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.068 | 5.376 | 94.556 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 72.054 | 21.504 | 6.292 | 0.15 |
| Washington | 18.78 | 45.492 | 31.838 | 3.89 |
| Dallas | 9.064 | 31.908 | 53.58 | 5.448 |
| Philadelphia | 0.102 | 1.096 | 8.29 | 90.512 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 48.018 | 42.642 | 8.296 | 1.044 |
| Green Bay | 46.428 | 37.44 | 14.462 | 1.67 |
| Minnesota | 5.554 | 18.616 | 60.484 | 15.346 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 1.302 | 16.758 | 81.94 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Atlanta | 99.276 | 0.72 | 0.004 | 0.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.692 | 68.936 | 26.212 | 4.16 |
| New Orleans | 0.032 | 25.854 | 35.326 | 38.788 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 4.49 | 38.458 | 57.052 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Francisco | 96.234 | 3.68 | 0.086 | 0.0 |
| Seattle | 3.652 | 84.432 | 9.798 | 2.118 |
| St Louis | 0.114 | 9.494 | 69.736 | 20.656 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 2.394 | 20.38 | 77.226 |
Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Houston | 82.098 | 10.934 | 4.35 | 0.768 | 1.836 | 0.014 | 100.0 |
| Denver | 7.232 | 50.29 | 26.254 | 16.224 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| New England | 7.036 | 14.374 | 25.63 | 48.024 | 1.742 | 1.736 | 98.542 |
| Baltimore | 3.446 | 23.85 | 40.902 | 23.65 | 5.93 | 1.99 | 99.768 |
| Indianapolis | 0.188 | 0.512 | 0.642 | 0.508 | 46.138 | 26.678 | 74.666 |
| Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.016 | 1.112 | 2.576 | 20.176 | 24.474 | 48.354 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.024 | 0.97 | 3.454 | 17.538 | 23.784 | 45.77 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.14 | 4.698 | 1.92 | 6.81 | 13.568 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.032 | 1.522 | 4.448 | 6.002 |
| San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.818 | 4.492 | 6.31 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.066 | 0.596 | 2.76 | 3.422 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.74 | 2.508 | 3.248 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.028 | 0.166 | 0.194 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.016 | 0.138 | 0.154 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Atlanta | 66.04 | 21.01 | 9.062 | 3.164 | 0.342 | 0.292 | 99.91 |
| San Francisco | 25.342 | 49.92 | 17.066 | 3.906 | 2.31 | 1.002 | 99.546 |
| Chicago | 4.814 | 12.2 | 21.79 | 9.214 | 25.736 | 13.364 | 87.118 |
| NY Giants | 2.074 | 7.616 | 24.266 | 38.098 | 5.912 | 7.626 | 85.592 |
| Green Bay | 1.546 | 7.282 | 22.274 | 15.326 | 19.662 | 14.046 | 80.136 |
| Seattle | 0.166 | 1.672 | 1.23 | 0.584 | 31.02 | 22.096 | 56.768 |
| Minnesota | 0.008 | 0.176 | 1.664 | 3.706 | 3.876 | 7.364 | 16.794 |
| Washington | 0.002 | 0.062 | 2.114 | 16.602 | 3.156 | 9.88 | 31.816 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.008 | 0.06 | 0.266 | 0.358 | 4.908 | 11.986 | 17.586 |
| Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.212 | 8.852 | 0.954 | 4.61 | 14.628 |
| New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.022 | 0.008 | 0.936 | 2.958 | 3.926 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.034 | 0.08 | 0.684 | 2.568 | 3.366 |
| Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.102 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.102 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.482 | 2.06 | 2.542 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.022 | 0.128 | 0.15 |
| Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012