NFL playoff races and other musings

Edit: I had an error in the week 11 NO Oakland game. It is now corrected. Sorry for the error.

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	95.064	4.826	0.11	0.0
Miami	4.838	40.784	31.606	22.772
NY Jets	0.032	29.804	40.84	29.324
Buffalo	0.066	24.586	27.444	47.904

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	91.848	7.538	0.614	0.0
Cincinnati	3.704	46.152	48.864	1.28
Pittsburgh	4.448	46.028	46.218	3.306
Cleveland	0.0	0.282	4.304	95.414

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	98.15	1.85	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	1.85	91.584	6.56	0.006
Tennessee	0.0	6.548	82.25	11.202
Jacksonville	0.0	0.018	11.19	88.792

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Diego	0.0	78.884	21.018	0.098
Oakland	0.0	21.048	73.606	5.346
Kansas City	0.0	0.068	5.376	94.556

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	72.054	21.504	6.292	0.15
Washington	18.78	45.492	31.838	3.89
Dallas	9.064	31.908	53.58	5.448
Philadelphia	0.102	1.096	8.29	90.512

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	48.018	42.642	8.296	1.044
Green Bay	46.428	37.44	14.462	1.67
Minnesota	5.554	18.616	60.484	15.346
Detroit	0.0	1.302	16.758	81.94

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	99.276	0.72	0.004	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.692	68.936	26.212	4.16
New Orleans	0.032	25.854	35.326	38.788
Carolina	0.0	4.49	38.458	57.052

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	96.234	3.68	0.086	0.0
Seattle	3.652	84.432	9.798	2.118
St Louis	0.114	9.494	69.736	20.656
Arizona	0.0	2.394	20.38	77.226

Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	82.098	10.934	4.35	0.768	1.836	0.014	100.0
Denver	7.232	50.29	26.254	16.224	0.0	0.0	100.0
New England	7.036	14.374	25.63	48.024	1.742	1.736	98.542
Baltimore	3.446	23.85	40.902	23.65	5.93	1.99	99.768
Indianapolis	0.188	0.512	0.642	0.508	46.138	26.678	74.666
Cincinnati	0.0	0.016	1.112	2.576	20.176	24.474	48.354
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.024	0.97	3.454	17.538	23.784	45.77
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.14	4.698	1.92	6.81	13.568
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.032	1.522	4.448	6.002
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.818	4.492	6.31
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.066	0.596	2.76	3.422
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.74	2.508	3.248
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.028	0.166	0.194
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.016	0.138	0.154
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.002	0.002
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	66.04	21.01	9.062	3.164	0.342	0.292	99.91
San Francisco	25.342	49.92	17.066	3.906	2.31	1.002	99.546
Chicago	4.814	12.2	21.79	9.214	25.736	13.364	87.118
NY Giants	2.074	7.616	24.266	38.098	5.912	7.626	85.592
Green Bay	1.546	7.282	22.274	15.326	19.662	14.046	80.136
Seattle	0.166	1.672	1.23	0.584	31.02	22.096	56.768
Minnesota	0.008	0.176	1.664	3.706	3.876	7.364	16.794
Washington	0.002	0.062	2.114	16.602	3.156	9.88	31.816
Tampa Bay	0.008	0.06	0.266	0.358	4.908	11.986	17.586
Dallas	0.0	0.0	0.212	8.852	0.954	4.61	14.628
New Orleans	0.0	0.002	0.022	0.008	0.936	2.958	3.926
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.034	0.08	0.684	2.568	3.366
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.102	0.0	0.0	0.102
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.482	2.06	2.542
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.022	0.128	0.15
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02

Generated: Sat Dec 01 15:10:56 EST 2012

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