2013 Playoff Predictions after Week 7

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 46.066 33.608 14.396 5.93
NY Jets 39.366 37.018 16.666 6.95
Buffalo 8.34 17.672 43.416 30.572
Miami 6.228 11.702 25.522 56.548

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 93.11 5.84 0.884 0.166
Cleveland 3.136 40.17 33.806 22.888
Pittsburgh 2.614 37.39 33.534 26.462
Baltimore 1.14 16.6 31.776 50.484

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 89.086 8.984 1.93 0.0
Tennessee 6.452 48.724 43.64 1.184
Houston 4.46 41.99 51.712 1.838
Jacksonville 0.002 0.302 2.718 96.978

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 56.468 36.744 6.762 0.026
Kansas City 40.082 49.41 10.478 0.03
San Diego 3.45 13.81 80.086 2.654
Oakland 0.0 0.036 2.674 97.29

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 62.52 33.914 3.354 0.212
Philadelphia 36.41 56.996 5.826 0.768
NY Giants 0.512 4.814 47.716 46.958
Washington 0.558 4.276 43.104 52.062

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 70.122 21.592 8.198 0.088
Detroit 20.008 50.364 29.276 0.352
Chicago 9.866 27.952 60.93 1.252
Minnesota 0.004 0.092 1.596 98.308

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 79.328 19.684 0.986 0.002
Carolina 19.9 68.686 11.258 0.156
Atlanta 0.772 11.56 83.674 3.994
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.07 4.082 95.848

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 86.006 13.976 0.016 0.002
San Francisco 13.992 85.042 0.934 0.032
Arizona 0.002 0.896 74.502 24.6
St Louis 0.0 0.086 24.548 75.366

Generated: Wed Oct 23 22:29:23 EDT 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 36.948 14.726 4.274 0.52 34.472 6.074 97.014
Kansas City 27.874 9.464 2.41 0.334 46.326 8.822 95.23
Cincinnati 20.704 37.162 25.47 9.774 0.484 2.078 95.672
Indianapolis 11.258 26.584 32.988 18.256 0.432 2.098 91.616
San Diego 1.744 1.094 0.5 0.112 11.21 25.36 40.02
New England 0.894 3.552 12.346 29.274 1.356 7.712 55.134
NY Jets 0.376 4.048 11.252 23.69 1.336 9.462 50.164
Tennessee 0.074 1.008 3.182 2.188 1.06 10.432 17.944
Cleveland 0.034 0.63 1.088 1.384 1.164 7.388 11.688
Miami 0.036 0.434 1.498 4.26 0.312 2.584 9.124
Pittsburgh 0.03 0.518 0.97 1.096 0.862 6.79 10.266
Houston 0.016 0.396 1.936 2.112 0.344 5.322 10.126
Buffalo 0.012 0.238 1.698 6.392 0.492 3.342 12.174
Baltimore 0.0 0.146 0.388 0.606 0.13 2.332 3.602
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.204 0.224
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.002

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 76.074 8.188 1.568 0.176 13.424 0.444 99.874
San Francisco 11.4 2.142 0.394 0.056 69.434 10.094 93.52
New Orleans 7.768 35.03 24.208 12.322 2.512 7.058 88.898
Green Bay 3.176 23.802 26.242 16.902 1.248 9.726 81.096
Dallas 0.994 12.426 16.392 32.708 1.264 7.492 71.276
Philadelphia 0.246 6.63 10.336 19.198 3.068 15.46 54.938
Carolina 0.19 5.256 7.904 6.55 4.532 16.112 40.544
Detroit 0.136 4.896 8.478 6.498 3.154 19.298 42.46
Chicago 0.016 1.548 4.182 4.12 0.814 9.726 20.406
Atlanta 0.0 0.068 0.226 0.478 0.172 1.226 2.17
Washington 0.0 0.008 0.042 0.508 0.03 0.188 0.776
NY Giants 0.0 0.004 0.028 0.48 0.022 0.264 0.798
Arizona 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.322 2.84 3.164
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.006 0.01
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.066 0.07
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Oct 23 22:29:23 EDT 2013

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