2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 8

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 75.988 18.872 4.524 0.616
NY Jets 15.612 47.114 24.782 12.492
Buffalo 5.806 21.912 44.728 27.554
Miami 2.594 12.102 25.966 59.338

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 99.056 0.902 0.038 0.004
Cleveland 0.752 58.488 28.388 12.372
Pittsburgh 0.104 27.626 39.016 33.254
Baltimore 0.088 12.984 32.558 54.37

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 91.034 7.496 1.464 0.006
Tennessee 4.638 46.032 47.278 2.052
Houston 4.326 45.914 47.122 2.638
Jacksonville 0.002 0.558 4.136 95.304

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 70.278 28.132 1.584 0.006
Kansas City 28.972 65.114 5.836 0.078
San Diego 0.748 6.644 80.918 11.69
Oakland 0.002 0.11 11.662 88.226

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 65.81 23.486 9.354 1.35
Philadelphia 26.758 47.164 21.258 4.82
NY Giants 5.456 21.548 45.334 27.662
Washington 1.976 7.802 24.054 66.168

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 65.564 28.524 5.908 0.004
Detroit 30.728 57.916 11.334 0.022
Chicago 3.708 13.55 81.45 1.292
Minnesota 0.0 0.01 1.308 98.682

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 84.148 15.776 0.076 0.0
Carolina 15.82 81.318 2.842 0.02
Atlanta 0.032 2.896 89.94 7.132
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.01 7.142 92.848

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 74.874 24.89 0.236 0.0
San Francisco 25.066 72.716 2.198 0.02
Arizona 0.06 2.322 85.79 11.828
St Louis 0.0 0.072 11.776 88.152

Generated: Thu Oct 31 00:26:12 EDT 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 41.302 24.1 4.272 0.604 27.548 1.766 99.592
Cincinnati 36.568 47.356 12.992 2.14 0.096 0.518 99.67
Kansas City 17.114 9.934 1.73 0.194 63.514 5.506 97.992
Indianapolis 3.884 13.68 44.478 28.992 0.174 1.814 93.022
New England 0.868 4.048 26.522 44.55 0.524 6.246 82.758
San Diego 0.248 0.264 0.188 0.048 5.602 21.55 27.9
NY Jets 0.002 0.122 3.91 11.578 0.73 14.664 31.006
Tennessee 0.006 0.116 1.958 2.558 0.29 9.266 14.194
Cleveland 0.0 0.212 0.302 0.238 0.492 15.392 16.636
Houston 0.002 0.04 1.482 2.802 0.124 5.632 10.082
Miami 0.006 0.07 0.692 1.826 0.192 3.73 6.516
Buffalo 0.0 0.028 1.376 4.402 0.394 5.374 11.574
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.018 0.052 0.034 0.176 4.622 4.902
Baltimore 0.0 0.012 0.044 0.032 0.048 2.24 2.376
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.096 1.674 1.772
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.006 0.008

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 56.684 14.01 4.096 0.084 22.074 2.464 99.412
New Orleans 18.896 38.296 23.318 3.638 2.63 6.512 93.29
San Francisco 17.748 5.948 1.332 0.038 58.538 10.714 94.318
Green Bay 5.15 23.12 32.758 4.536 2.614 15.004 83.182
Detroit 0.916 9.852 18.264 1.696 6.948 28.014 65.69
Carolina 0.468 5.604 7.878 1.87 5.366 19.886 41.072
Dallas 0.118 2.164 6.646 56.882 0.034 0.756 66.6
Philadelphia 0.006 0.554 2.814 23.384 0.178 2.774 29.71
Chicago 0.002 0.422 2.662 0.622 0.362 5.132 9.202
Arizona 0.012 0.02 0.028 0.0 1.224 8.276 9.56
NY Giants 0.0 0.006 0.156 5.294 0.01 0.304 5.77
Washington 0.0 0.004 0.03 1.942 0.0 0.044 2.02
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.014 0.016 0.084 0.132
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.036 0.042
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Oct 31 00:26:12 EDT 2013

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