2013 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 6

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 57.308 27.09 12.722 2.88
NY Jets 20.08 35.228 31.758 12.934
Miami 20.194 28.612 31.906 19.288
Buffalo 2.418 9.07 23.614 64.898

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 77.728 16.688 4.436 1.148
Cleveland 13.084 40.998 29.652 16.266
Pittsburgh 4.926 24.11 32.706 38.258
Baltimore 4.262 18.204 33.206 44.328

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 89.004 9.244 1.744 0.008
Tennessee 7.534 54.848 35.982 1.636
Houston 3.456 35.292 57.442 3.81
Jacksonville 0.006 0.616 4.832 94.546

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 68.046 29.644 2.266 0.044
Kansas City 30.882 61.34 7.54 0.238
San Diego 1.064 8.776 77.344 12.816
Oakland 0.008 0.24 12.85 86.902

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 84.908 14.128 0.906 0.058
Dallas 14.512 69.45 13.724 2.314
NY Giants 0.298 9.818 48.494 41.39
Washington 0.282 6.604 36.876 56.238

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 45.082 30.484 23.226 1.208
Detroit 33.712 38.244 27.184 0.86
Chicago 21.148 30.772 45.92 2.16
Minnesota 0.058 0.5 3.67 95.772

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 87.676 12.106 0.218 0.0
Carolina 12.118 77.724 9.422 0.736
Atlanta 0.202 9.01 69.522 21.266
Tampa Bay 0.004 1.16 20.838 77.998

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 83.994 15.166 0.828 0.012
San Francisco 15.39 77.15 7.25 0.21
Arizona 0.612 7.484 80.15 11.754
St Louis 0.004 0.2 11.772 88.024

Generated: Wed Oct 16 19:16:04 EDT 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 55.662 9.834 2.178 0.372 27.872 2.78 98.698
Kansas City 23.996 5.242 1.348 0.296 55.414 7.556 93.852
Indianapolis 10.384 32.384 27.014 19.222 0.452 2.15 91.606
Cincinnati 6.378 28.338 24.964 18.048 1.248 5.682 84.658
New England 2.106 10.19 18.718 26.294 1.29 7.212 65.81
Miami 0.412 4.296 6.974 8.512 1.36 8.87 30.424
San Diego 0.584 0.308 0.118 0.054 6.214 16.376 23.654
Cleveland 0.184 2.614 3.986 6.3 1.804 10.14 25.028
NY Jets 0.124 2.808 6.614 10.534 1.076 9.082 30.238
Tennessee 0.104 1.922 3.226 2.282 1.454 13.4 22.388
Houston 0.038 0.66 1.246 1.512 0.656 5.294 9.406
Pittsburgh 0.016 0.734 1.66 2.516 0.524 5.086 10.536
Baltimore 0.01 0.578 1.406 2.268 0.322 3.798 8.382
Buffalo 0.0 0.09 0.544 1.784 0.182 1.44 4.04
Oakland 0.002 0.002 0.004 0.0 0.132 1.124 1.264
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.006 0.0 0.01 0.016

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Seattle 56.588 18.436 7.082 1.888 12.506 2.144 98.644
New Orleans 24.64 34.014 20.644 8.378 3.88 4.108 95.664
San Francisco 7.522 4.932 2.34 0.596 50.408 16.112 81.91
Philadelphia 5.776 17.77 21.862 39.5 1.352 2.702 88.962
Green Bay 2.766 9.508 18.036 14.772 4.582 13.446 63.11
Detroit 1.344 6.734 13.638 11.996 6.806 16.034 56.552
Carolina 0.598 3.442 4.636 3.442 10.172 16.59 38.88
Chicago 0.506 3.536 8.482 8.624 4.498 13.554 39.2
Dallas 0.184 1.374 2.986 9.968 2.36 6.822 23.694
Arizona 0.074 0.222 0.198 0.118 3.106 7.1 10.818
Atlanta 0.002 0.028 0.054 0.118 0.242 0.892 1.336
Washington 0.0 0.002 0.01 0.27 0.022 0.138 0.442
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.284 0.042 0.168 0.508
Minnesota 0.0 0.002 0.016 0.04 0.008 0.092 0.158
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002 0.014 0.084 0.102
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.002 0.014 0.02

Generated: Wed Oct 16 19:16:04 EDT 2013

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