December 4th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Jets |
54.12 |
27.38 |
16.6 |
1.9 |
| Miami |
37.0 |
32.06 |
27.9 |
3.04 |
| New England |
8.56 |
37.52 |
46.74 |
7.18 |
| Buffalo |
0.32 |
3.04 |
8.76 |
87.88 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
88.74 |
11.26 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
11.26 |
88.74 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
97.02 |
2.98 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.98 |
97.02 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tennessee |
99.7 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.3 |
99.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
78.76 |
21.24 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
21.24 |
78.76 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Denver |
87.26 |
12.74 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Diego |
12.72 |
86.06 |
1.06 |
0.16 |
| Oakland |
0.02 |
0.94 |
80.34 |
18.7 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.26 |
18.6 |
81.14 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
99.92 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
50.1 |
32.3 |
17.6 |
| Dallas |
0.08 |
31.62 |
41.16 |
27.14 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
18.2 |
26.54 |
55.26 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Minnesota |
53.92 |
38.7 |
7.38 |
0.0 |
| Chicago |
28.46 |
36.48 |
35.06 |
0.0 |
| Green Bay |
17.62 |
24.82 |
57.56 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
33.9 |
28.42 |
37.22 |
0.46 |
| Carolina |
35.2 |
33.74 |
28.54 |
2.52 |
| Atlanta |
30.9 |
36.52 |
26.38 |
6.2 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
1.32 |
7.86 |
90.82 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
78.14 |
20.3 |
1.56 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
15.62 |
64.7 |
19.68 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
6.24 |
15.0 |
78.76 |
Generated: Thu Dec 04 14:02:59 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Tennessee |
85.08 |
13.46 |
1.16 |
0.0 |
0.26 |
0.04 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
14.6 |
67.86 |
6.2 |
0.08 |
1.94 |
8.48 |
99.16 |
| NY Jets |
0.12 |
7.0 |
42.56 |
4.44 |
1.78 |
9.52 |
65.42 |
| Baltimore |
0.06 |
10.08 |
1.1 |
0.02 |
9.9 |
54.5 |
75.66 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
1.12 |
35.54 |
0.34 |
0.26 |
6.88 |
44.14 |
| Indianapolis |
0.14 |
0.16 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
84.8 |
11.4 |
96.5 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.1 |
5.02 |
82.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
87.26 |
| New England |
0.0 |
0.22 |
8.12 |
0.22 |
1.04 |
8.56 |
18.16 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
12.72 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
12.76 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.56 |
0.9 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| NY Giants |
84.46 |
15.4 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
99.96 |
| Carolina |
11.9 |
23.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
27.04 |
17.82 |
80.06 |
| Tampa Bay |
2.56 |
29.84 |
1.48 |
0.02 |
17.78 |
20.86 |
72.54 |
| Atlanta |
1.04 |
28.32 |
1.54 |
0.0 |
27.22 |
16.16 |
74.28 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
2.74 |
76.26 |
21.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.56 |
16.82 |
36.54 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
53.96 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.4 |
25.06 |
0.0 |
0.18 |
28.64 |
| Dallas |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
11.22 |
15.26 |
26.56 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
17.38 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
17.62 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
15.34 |
21.4 |
36.74 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.22 |
7.0 |
8.22 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.14 |
1.28 |
1.42 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Thu Dec 04 14:02:59 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 25th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats. Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Jets |
64.86 |
22.26 |
11.48 |
1.4 |
| Miami |
24.22 |
37.3 |
32.04 |
6.44 |
| New England |
9.46 |
35.64 |
42.94 |
11.96 |
| Buffalo |
1.46 |
4.8 |
13.54 |
80.2 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
91.82 |
8.18 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
8.18 |
91.78 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.04 |
93.8 |
6.16 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
6.16 |
93.84 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tennessee |
99.5 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.5 |
99.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.02 |
58.5 |
41.48 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.08 |
41.4 |
58.52 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
56.36 |
42.18 |
1.46 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
43.4 |
55.5 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.22 |
2.28 |
92.7 |
4.8 |
| Kansas City |
0.02 |
0.04 |
4.74 |
95.2 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
92.62 |
6.2 |
1.18 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
6.6 |
70.68 |
17.86 |
4.86 |
| Dallas |
0.74 |
15.68 |
55.94 |
27.64 |
| Philadelphia |
0.04 |
7.44 |
25.02 |
67.5 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
66.98 |
21.2 |
11.82 |
0.0 |
| Green Bay |
15.6 |
42.54 |
41.86 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
17.42 |
36.26 |
46.32 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
45.38 |
28.82 |
19.62 |
6.18 |
| Atlanta |
20.48 |
33.86 |
32.48 |
13.18 |
| Tampa Bay |
26.62 |
25.56 |
26.68 |
21.14 |
| New Orleans |
7.52 |
11.76 |
21.22 |
59.5 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
52.76 |
41.3 |
5.94 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
39.2 |
47.54 |
13.26 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
8.04 |
11.16 |
80.8 |
Generated: Tue Nov 25 18:30:41 EST 2008 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Tennessee |
81.32 |
13.8 |
4.38 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
0.16 |
99.9 |
| Pittsburgh |
13.58 |
49.6 |
28.52 |
0.12 |
1.08 |
3.04 |
95.94 |
| NY Jets |
4.64 |
25.48 |
33.9 |
0.84 |
4.68 |
13.34 |
82.88 |
| New England |
0.08 |
4.6 |
4.76 |
0.02 |
5.34 |
18.54 |
33.34 |
| Baltimore |
0.08 |
3.96 |
4.12 |
0.02 |
8.54 |
31.62 |
48.34 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
2.24 |
21.92 |
0.06 |
3.0 |
18.08 |
45.3 |
| Indianapolis |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
76.74 |
12.66 |
89.9 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
56.34 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
56.42 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.02 |
1.06 |
42.32 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
43.44 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.32 |
0.04 |
0.38 |
2.44 |
4.28 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| NY Giants |
72.78 |
18.46 |
1.16 |
0.22 |
3.78 |
2.18 |
98.58 |
| Carolina |
17.18 |
25.66 |
2.42 |
0.12 |
13.24 |
16.08 |
74.7 |
| Tampa Bay |
3.48 |
17.74 |
5.18 |
0.22 |
8.2 |
14.72 |
49.54 |
| Washington |
4.22 |
2.08 |
0.28 |
0.02 |
48.08 |
20.36 |
75.04 |
| Arizona |
0.96 |
16.72 |
58.9 |
23.42 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Atlanta |
0.98 |
14.02 |
5.3 |
0.18 |
15.36 |
19.72 |
55.56 |
| Chicago |
0.02 |
2.06 |
18.1 |
46.8 |
0.02 |
0.28 |
67.28 |
| New Orleans |
0.04 |
2.66 |
3.92 |
0.9 |
1.12 |
7.3 |
15.94 |
| Dallas |
0.28 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.02 |
8.34 |
15.06 |
24.14 |
| Minnesota |
0.06 |
0.36 |
3.46 |
13.54 |
0.1 |
0.44 |
17.96 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.04 |
14.56 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
15.6 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
1.76 |
3.86 |
5.66 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Nov 25 18:30:41 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
November 18th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.comSingle game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Miami |
60.92 |
30.42 |
7.56 |
1.1 |
| NY Jets |
34.18 |
46.5 |
16.5 |
2.82 |
| New England |
3.82 |
15.66 |
52.0 |
28.52 |
| Buffalo |
1.08 |
7.42 |
23.94 |
67.56 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
94.02 |
5.84 |
0.14 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
5.98 |
92.18 |
1.84 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
1.96 |
94.84 |
3.2 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.02 |
3.18 |
96.8 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tennessee |
99.78 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.22 |
96.66 |
3.1 |
0.02 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
2.94 |
63.04 |
34.02 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.18 |
33.86 |
65.96 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Denver |
63.36 |
36.52 |
0.12 |
0.0 |
| San Diego |
36.56 |
62.96 |
0.44 |
0.04 |
| Oakland |
0.06 |
0.42 |
72.62 |
26.9 |
| Kansas City |
0.02 |
0.1 |
26.82 |
73.06 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
80.46 |
14.36 |
4.06 |
1.12 |
| Washington |
11.52 |
48.3 |
27.1 |
13.08 |
| Philadelphia |
5.54 |
23.24 |
33.52 |
37.7 |
| Dallas |
2.48 |
14.1 |
35.32 |
48.1 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
52.02 |
28.94 |
19.04 |
0.0 |
| Green Bay |
33.72 |
43.7 |
22.58 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
14.26 |
27.36 |
58.38 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
51.4 |
29.44 |
15.64 |
3.52 |
| Tampa Bay |
32.72 |
35.9 |
22.48 |
8.9 |
| Atlanta |
13.14 |
26.5 |
41.72 |
18.64 |
| New Orleans |
2.74 |
8.16 |
20.16 |
68.94 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Arizona |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
50.52 |
39.82 |
9.66 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
37.7 |
46.1 |
16.2 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
11.78 |
14.08 |
74.14 |
Generated: Tue Nov 18 21:18:05 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Tennessee |
93.44 |
5.22 |
1.1 |
0.02 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
99.98 |
| Pittsburgh |
5.3 |
57.32 |
27.82 |
3.58 |
1.22 |
1.76 |
97.0 |
| Miami |
0.28 |
21.46 |
37.24 |
1.94 |
12.04 |
14.72 |
87.68 |
| NY Jets |
0.88 |
9.92 |
18.1 |
5.28 |
14.0 |
21.6 |
69.78 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
1.94 |
8.46 |
52.96 |
0.56 |
2.48 |
66.4 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
1.98 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
9.36 |
17.44 |
32.78 |
| New England |
0.02 |
1.82 |
1.66 |
0.32 |
4.44 |
10.68 |
18.94 |
| Indianapolis |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
54.76 |
20.9 |
75.88 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.08 |
1.76 |
34.72 |
1.38 |
4.7 |
42.64 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.14 |
0.84 |
0.1 |
1.92 |
5.12 |
8.12 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.42 |
0.5 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.12 |
0.14 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.06 |
0.08 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| NY Giants |
48.32 |
21.88 |
9.12 |
1.14 |
9.12 |
4.78 |
94.36 |
| Carolina |
21.9 |
20.9 |
7.94 |
0.66 |
12.38 |
12.38 |
76.16 |
| Arizona |
14.14 |
22.5 |
47.0 |
16.36 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
7.24 |
17.06 |
8.1 |
0.32 |
12.46 |
16.0 |
61.18 |
| Washington |
5.18 |
4.68 |
1.48 |
0.18 |
35.18 |
18.8 |
65.5 |
| Philadelphia |
1.64 |
2.74 |
0.98 |
0.18 |
13.72 |
16.3 |
35.56 |
| Atlanta |
1.02 |
6.82 |
5.08 |
0.22 |
7.68 |
12.86 |
33.68 |
| Dallas |
0.5 |
0.92 |
1.02 |
0.04 |
8.54 |
14.34 |
25.36 |
| Chicago |
0.02 |
1.08 |
11.16 |
39.76 |
0.1 |
0.68 |
52.8 |
| Green Bay |
0.02 |
0.4 |
3.52 |
29.78 |
0.04 |
0.38 |
34.14 |
| Minnesota |
0.02 |
0.4 |
2.84 |
11.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
14.86 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.62 |
1.76 |
0.36 |
0.68 |
2.98 |
6.4 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Nov 18 21:18:05 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 12th, 2008
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com
Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Miami |
53.2 |
27.82 |
13.16 |
5.82 |
| NY Jets |
25.6 |
27.6 |
26.68 |
20.12 |
| New England |
12.14 |
24.26 |
31.76 |
31.84 |
| Buffalo |
9.06 |
20.32 |
28.4 |
42.22 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
82.36 |
17.6 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
17.6 |
81.96 |
0.44 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.04 |
0.42 |
92.58 |
6.96 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.02 |
6.94 |
93.04 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tennessee |
98.94 |
1.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Indianapolis |
1.04 |
87.22 |
10.56 |
1.18 |
| Jacksonville |
0.02 |
9.64 |
64.9 |
25.44 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
2.08 |
24.54 |
73.38 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
68.0 |
31.36 |
0.62 |
0.02 |
| Denver |
31.9 |
65.56 |
2.46 |
0.08 |
| Oakland |
0.1 |
2.7 |
74.0 |
23.2 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.38 |
22.92 |
76.7 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
58.96 |
30.12 |
9.72 |
1.2 |
| Washington |
34.2 |
44.56 |
17.94 |
3.3 |
| Philadelphia |
6.46 |
21.58 |
54.36 |
17.6 |
| Dallas |
0.38 |
3.74 |
17.98 |
77.9 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
75.96 |
16.3 |
7.74 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
14.22 |
51.88 |
33.9 |
0.0 |
| Green Bay |
9.82 |
31.82 |
58.34 |
0.02 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
99.98 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
51.94 |
29.02 |
16.08 |
2.96 |
| Atlanta |
26.24 |
33.8 |
30.68 |
9.28 |
| Tampa Bay |
20.14 |
30.48 |
35.0 |
14.38 |
| New Orleans |
1.68 |
6.7 |
18.24 |
73.38 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Arizona |
99.74 |
0.26 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Seattle |
0.2 |
40.56 |
42.9 |
16.34 |
| San Francisco |
0.04 |
43.58 |
37.66 |
18.72 |
| St Louis |
0.02 |
15.6 |
19.44 |
64.94 |
Generated: Tue Nov 11 23:27:04 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Tennessee |
90.76 |
6.16 |
1.74 |
0.28 |
0.84 |
0.16 |
99.94 |
| Pittsburgh |
5.56 |
41.34 |
25.78 |
9.68 |
3.08 |
4.78 |
90.22 |
| Miami |
1.1 |
21.28 |
28.68 |
2.14 |
9.6 |
13.58 |
76.38 |
| NY Jets |
1.18 |
8.82 |
12.24 |
3.36 |
9.26 |
13.98 |
48.84 |
| Baltimore |
0.18 |
7.86 |
6.9 |
2.66 |
14.02 |
18.56 |
50.18 |
| New England |
0.2 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
1.14 |
7.62 |
12.5 |
32.26 |
| San Diego |
0.14 |
4.32 |
11.9 |
51.64 |
1.1 |
2.02 |
71.12 |
| Indianapolis |
0.7 |
0.24 |
0.06 |
0.04 |
43.96 |
18.12 |
63.12 |
| Buffalo |
0.18 |
3.84 |
4.6 |
0.44 |
9.08 |
12.14 |
30.28 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.64 |
2.74 |
28.52 |
0.58 |
2.02 |
34.5 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.08 |
0.16 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
1.66 |
2.38 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.12 |
0.4 |
0.52 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| NY Giants |
37.86 |
14.76 |
5.16 |
1.18 |
20.74 |
9.94 |
89.64 |
| Washington |
21.98 |
9.32 |
2.42 |
0.48 |
34.74 |
13.4 |
82.34 |
| Carolina |
20.2 |
25.46 |
5.7 |
0.58 |
11.64 |
12.82 |
76.4 |
| Arizona |
6.46 |
13.24 |
37.3 |
42.74 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
99.74 |
| Atlanta |
5.0 |
13.96 |
6.02 |
1.26 |
7.96 |
15.58 |
49.78 |
| Tampa Bay |
3.62 |
11.44 |
4.2 |
0.88 |
7.78 |
16.58 |
44.5 |
| Chicago |
2.0 |
6.44 |
30.64 |
36.88 |
0.18 |
0.7 |
76.84 |
| Philadelphia |
2.28 |
3.06 |
0.92 |
0.2 |
13.72 |
20.78 |
40.96 |
| Minnesota |
0.54 |
1.32 |
5.04 |
7.32 |
0.94 |
2.82 |
17.98 |
| Dallas |
0.06 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.04 |
2.02 |
4.4 |
6.8 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.74 |
0.34 |
0.28 |
2.78 |
4.74 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.26 |
1.72 |
7.84 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
10.02 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Nov 11 23:27:04 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 8th, 2008
I’ll be more regular updating the weekly predictions through out the remainder of the season.
To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com
Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Miami |
46.44 |
32.34 |
19.0 |
2.22 |
| Buffalo |
30.16 |
34.1 |
29.2 |
6.54 |
| NY Jets |
22.32 |
29.04 |
37.62 |
11.02 |
| New England |
1.08 |
4.52 |
14.18 |
80.22 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
93.86 |
6.12 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
6.14 |
90.98 |
2.84 |
0.04 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
2.88 |
92.02 |
5.1 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.02 |
5.12 |
94.86 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tennessee |
98.32 |
1.66 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
| Indianapolis |
1.62 |
77.56 |
16.8 |
4.02 |
| Jacksonville |
0.02 |
11.76 |
42.08 |
46.14 |
| Houston |
0.04 |
9.02 |
41.1 |
49.84 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
82.94 |
16.48 |
0.54 |
0.04 |
| Denver |
16.76 |
75.7 |
7.22 |
0.32 |
| Oakland |
0.3 |
7.18 |
79.46 |
13.06 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.64 |
12.78 |
86.58 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Washington |
41.34 |
35.32 |
20.32 |
3.02 |
| NY Giants |
32.26 |
28.62 |
31.62 |
7.5 |
| Philadelphia |
25.58 |
32.78 |
33.62 |
8.02 |
| Dallas |
0.82 |
3.28 |
14.44 |
81.46 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
77.96 |
16.66 |
5.38 |
0.0 |
| Green Bay |
14.04 |
44.32 |
41.62 |
0.02 |
| Minnesota |
8.0 |
39.02 |
52.92 |
0.06 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
99.92 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
68.46 |
21.74 |
8.08 |
1.72 |
| Tampa Bay |
13.56 |
31.54 |
35.4 |
19.5 |
| Atlanta |
13.94 |
31.44 |
31.64 |
22.98 |
| New Orleans |
4.04 |
15.28 |
24.88 |
55.8 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Arizona |
99.06 |
0.8 |
0.14 |
0.0 |
| Seattle |
0.48 |
32.02 |
38.54 |
28.96 |
| St Louis |
0.24 |
38.08 |
27.32 |
34.36 |
| San Francisco |
0.22 |
29.1 |
34.0 |
36.68 |
Generated: Sat Nov 08 21:54:09 EST 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Tennessee |
68.88 |
21.78 |
6.66 |
1.0 |
1.16 |
0.3 |
99.78 |
| Pittsburgh |
26.24 |
42.98 |
17.18 |
7.46 |
2.42 |
1.66 |
97.94 |
| Buffalo |
2.22 |
10.58 |
16.6 |
0.76 |
21.96 |
17.7 |
69.82 |
| Miami |
0.82 |
12.28 |
31.2 |
2.14 |
16.72 |
16.14 |
79.3 |
| NY Jets |
0.96 |
5.32 |
12.34 |
3.7 |
13.56 |
16.64 |
52.52 |
| San Diego |
0.24 |
3.9 |
11.88 |
66.92 |
0.58 |
1.44 |
84.96 |
| Baltimore |
0.22 |
2.44 |
2.36 |
1.12 |
17.94 |
17.94 |
42.02 |
| Indianapolis |
0.42 |
0.5 |
0.42 |
0.28 |
22.12 |
19.56 |
43.3 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.78 |
15.9 |
0.66 |
1.96 |
19.38 |
| New England |
0.0 |
0.12 |
0.54 |
0.42 |
1.26 |
2.44 |
4.78 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
2.32 |
3.46 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.28 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
0.7 |
0.94 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Carolina |
31.24 |
27.58 |
8.18 |
1.46 |
8.2 |
8.62 |
85.28 |
| Washington |
23.8 |
12.98 |
3.98 |
0.58 |
28.28 |
14.3 |
83.92 |
| NY Giants |
17.98 |
9.3 |
3.6 |
1.38 |
19.58 |
17.1 |
68.94 |
| Philadelphia |
11.38 |
9.12 |
3.96 |
1.12 |
23.84 |
18.5 |
67.92 |
| Arizona |
5.1 |
12.08 |
31.84 |
50.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
99.06 |
| Chicago |
4.32 |
11.66 |
32.7 |
29.28 |
0.32 |
1.02 |
79.3 |
| Tampa Bay |
3.04 |
6.48 |
3.12 |
0.92 |
7.7 |
14.36 |
35.62 |
| Atlanta |
2.36 |
7.46 |
3.26 |
0.86 |
7.2 |
12.94 |
34.08 |
| New Orleans |
0.26 |
1.68 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
1.66 |
5.26 |
10.96 |
| Minnesota |
0.28 |
0.64 |
2.8 |
4.28 |
1.5 |
3.04 |
12.54 |
| Green Bay |
0.1 |
0.7 |
4.98 |
8.26 |
0.14 |
0.72 |
14.9 |
| Dallas |
0.14 |
0.32 |
0.22 |
0.14 |
1.58 |
4.14 |
6.54 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.46 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.48 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.24 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Sat Nov 08 21:54:09 EST 2008
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
October 12th, 2008
These are the first predictions for the 2008 season. They were computed before the start of the week 6 games and are posted in order to provide documentation of the prediction accuracy for the 2008 season. I think the predictions are putting a little too much stock in Miami, Tennessee and Arizona so early in the season. We’ll see.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Miami |
55.32 |
29.22 |
13.08 |
2.38 |
| NY Jets |
22.8 |
32.16 |
31.18 |
13.86 |
| Buffalo |
20.04 |
30.88 |
33.86 |
15.22 |
| New England |
1.84 |
7.74 |
21.88 |
68.54 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
92.24 |
7.34 |
0.4 |
0.02 |
| Baltimore |
7.4 |
83.06 |
8.34 |
1.2 |
| Cincinnati |
0.34 |
6.56 |
52.1 |
41.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.02 |
3.04 |
39.16 |
57.78 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tennessee |
83.92 |
13.74 |
2.26 |
0.08 |
| Indianapolis |
12.72 |
53.48 |
27.86 |
5.94 |
| Jacksonville |
3.28 |
28.64 |
51.34 |
16.74 |
| Houston |
0.08 |
4.14 |
18.54 |
77.24 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
66.34 |
32.08 |
1.58 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
32.58 |
60.96 |
6.42 |
0.04 |
| Oakland |
1.08 |
6.96 |
88.62 |
3.34 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.38 |
96.62 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Washington |
58.48 |
36.7 |
4.3 |
0.52 |
| NY Giants |
38.52 |
45.24 |
12.5 |
3.74 |
| Dallas |
2.38 |
12.24 |
52.48 |
32.9 |
| Philadelphia |
0.62 |
5.82 |
30.72 |
62.84 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
83.98 |
13.74 |
2.28 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
12.92 |
61.12 |
25.82 |
0.14 |
| Green Bay |
3.1 |
25.14 |
71.46 |
0.3 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.44 |
99.56 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Carolina |
84.7 |
11.78 |
2.88 |
0.64 |
| Tampa Bay |
8.1 |
37.5 |
34.38 |
20.02 |
| New Orleans |
5.22 |
32.42 |
33.44 |
28.92 |
| Atlanta |
1.98 |
18.3 |
29.3 |
50.42 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Arizona |
97.7 |
2.16 |
0.14 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
1.56 |
69.7 |
22.64 |
6.1 |
| Seattle |
0.66 |
22.06 |
54.36 |
22.92 |
| St Louis |
0.08 |
6.08 |
22.86 |
70.98 |
Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Tennessee |
30.52 |
22.56 |
20.08 |
10.76 |
3.04 |
3.9 |
90.86 |
| Miami |
24.08 |
17.92 |
10.36 |
2.96 |
20.5 |
11.4 |
87.22 |
| San Diego |
14.04 |
20.78 |
22.36 |
9.16 |
10.54 |
9.64 |
86.52 |
| Pittsburgh |
9.16 |
12.54 |
17.76 |
52.78 |
0.16 |
0.36 |
92.76 |
| Buffalo |
7.5 |
6.4 |
4.62 |
1.52 |
19.38 |
18.46 |
57.88 |
| Denver |
6.38 |
9.16 |
10.16 |
6.88 |
16.68 |
15.62 |
64.88 |
| NY Jets |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.86 |
2.74 |
18.14 |
16.98 |
57.92 |
| Indianapolis |
1.38 |
2.72 |
4.96 |
3.66 |
5.48 |
9.62 |
27.82 |
| New England |
0.38 |
0.52 |
0.7 |
0.24 |
3.9 |
6.26 |
12.0 |
| Baltimore |
0.06 |
0.12 |
0.62 |
6.6 |
0.44 |
1.58 |
9.42 |
| Jacksonville |
0.04 |
0.32 |
1.08 |
1.84 |
0.88 |
3.42 |
7.58 |
| Oakland |
0.06 |
0.16 |
0.42 |
0.44 |
0.72 |
2.38 |
4.18 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.34 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.36 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.06 |
0.14 |
0.36 |
0.58 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Washington |
52.12 |
5.88 |
0.42 |
0.06 |
36.56 |
4.16 |
99.2 |
| NY Giants |
33.46 |
4.42 |
0.6 |
0.04 |
43.6 |
11.52 |
93.64 |
| Carolina |
9.18 |
46.18 |
21.08 |
8.26 |
0.56 |
4.0 |
89.26 |
| Chicago |
2.02 |
20.54 |
40.26 |
21.16 |
0.08 |
1.9 |
85.96 |
| Arizona |
1.0 |
14.02 |
24.98 |
57.7 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
97.72 |
| Dallas |
1.72 |
0.56 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
11.66 |
38.06 |
52.1 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.14 |
3.36 |
3.2 |
1.4 |
1.04 |
8.4 |
17.54 |
| Minnesota |
0.04 |
2.18 |
5.44 |
5.26 |
0.48 |
5.74 |
19.14 |
| Philadelphia |
0.28 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.02 |
5.32 |
17.52 |
23.46 |
| New Orleans |
0.04 |
1.62 |
1.74 |
1.82 |
0.36 |
5.14 |
10.72 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.86 |
0.76 |
0.36 |
0.3 |
2.96 |
5.24 |
| Green Bay |
0.0 |
0.2 |
1.18 |
1.72 |
0.02 |
0.42 |
3.54 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.08 |
1.46 |
0.02 |
0.1 |
1.68 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.66 |
0.0 |
0.06 |
0.72 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008
Posted in Weeky Predictions | No Comments »
December 31st, 2007
With the conclusion of the NFL season yesterday, it became possible to determine the NFL draft selection order. This year there was a 3-way tie in record and strength of schedule between Atlanta, Kansas City and Oakland for the 4th, 5th and 6th slots. This caused a great deal of confusion with erroneous reports of draft order or procedures coming from numerous outlets including the Atlanta Journal Constitution and several local Kansas City media outlets. The NFL itself took about 18 hours to make sure they were getting it right.
I’ve been very interested in this question for the last few weeks since I am a Chiefs fan. Using my software I was able to correctly call the draft order and the specific order of the upcoming coinflips the second the Jets winning FG sailed through the uprights. It’s all documented in the link below. I called the draft order before the NFL did.
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=177667
This was a pretty strenuous test of the NFL tiebreaking procedures that I’ve coded into my program, considering that many media outlets trying to sort through the tiebreakers by hand made mistakes. You can bank on the tiebreakers in my software to give you the right answer.
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
December 18th, 2007
I may try to put something up about predicted draft order later in the week since the playoff races are virtually decided, save for one NFC spot.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
74.94 |
25.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
25.06 |
74.94 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
98.54 |
1.46 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.46 |
98.54 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
99.82 |
0.18 |
0.0 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.18 |
99.0 |
0.82 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.82 |
99.18 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
99.88 |
0.12 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
77.98 |
22.02 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.12 |
21.9 |
77.98 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
93.96 |
6.04 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
6.04 |
57.92 |
36.04 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
36.04 |
63.96 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
98.1 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
1.9 |
95.62 |
2.48 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.48 |
97.52 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
96.34 |
3.66 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
3.66 |
96.34 |
0.0 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
99.9 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.1 |
91.58 |
8.32 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.32 |
91.68 |
Generated: Tue Dec 18 15:54:04 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
66.02 |
33.98 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
0.0 |
24.74 |
50.2 |
0.06 |
23.28 |
98.28 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.24 |
15.82 |
0.86 |
69.96 |
95.88 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
98.96 |
0.98 |
99.94 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.12 |
5.78 |
5.9 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
68.82 |
31.18 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Green Bay |
31.18 |
68.82 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Seattle |
0.0 |
0.0 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.0 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
48.46 |
40.66 |
89.12 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
38.86 |
26.62 |
65.48 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
8.1 |
21.72 |
29.82 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.58 |
10.78 |
15.36 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 18 15:54:04 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
December 11th, 2007
I’ve never seen the races so close to determined this early in the season. The improved bbnflstats.com predictions are partially responsible for the increased certainty, but more than that the way the season has played out there is just really clear stratification of the teams within the conferences.
AFC
NE
IND
PIT — could switch to the 4 seed
SD — could switch to the 3 seed
JAX
CLE — could lose out to Buffalo, Denver or Tennessee
NFC
DAL
GB
SEA
TB
NYG - could drop to 6th
MIN - could rise to 5th or drop their spot to NO, WAS, or ARZ
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
93.14 |
6.86 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
6.86 |
93.14 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
98.48 |
1.52 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.52 |
98.48 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
99.96 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.04 |
98.32 |
1.64 |
0.0 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
1.64 |
96.26 |
2.1 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
97.9 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
97.3 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
2.7 |
96.52 |
0.76 |
0.02 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.58 |
78.58 |
20.84 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.2 |
20.66 |
79.14 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
98.66 |
1.34 |
0.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
1.34 |
67.26 |
31.4 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
31.4 |
68.6 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
92.72 |
6.36 |
0.92 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
6.06 |
89.08 |
4.86 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
1.22 |
4.56 |
94.22 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
98.1 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
1.9 |
97.52 |
0.58 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.58 |
99.42 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
99.42 |
0.58 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.02 |
57.7 |
42.28 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.56 |
41.72 |
57.72 |
Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
99.98 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.02 |
99.2 |
0.72 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.0 |
0.7 |
61.44 |
31.0 |
0.24 |
6.08 |
99.46 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
34.58 |
62.72 |
0.0 |
0.56 |
97.86 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.04 |
3.22 |
3.6 |
6.04 |
58.26 |
71.16 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
92.46 |
6.66 |
99.16 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
2.66 |
0.02 |
2.36 |
5.08 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
19.88 |
20.18 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
6.2 |
7.1 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
95.52 |
4.26 |
0.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Green Bay |
4.44 |
91.88 |
3.44 |
0.24 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Seattle |
0.04 |
3.74 |
86.68 |
9.54 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.0 |
0.12 |
9.66 |
90.22 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
75.24 |
22.08 |
97.32 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
21.02 |
46.14 |
67.16 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.52 |
20.66 |
23.18 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.22 |
5.54 |
6.76 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
4.58 |
4.58 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.74 |
0.74 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
December 4th, 2007
Big winners:
San Diego
Tennessee
Buffalo
Minnesota
Big Losers:
Cleveland
Denver
Washington
Philadelphia
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
99.96 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.04 |
99.92 |
0.04 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
99.96 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
97.4 |
2.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
2.6 |
93.04 |
4.36 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
4.36 |
88.26 |
7.38 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.38 |
92.62 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
99.84 |
0.16 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jacksonville |
0.16 |
90.34 |
9.48 |
0.02 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
9.5 |
89.64 |
0.86 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.88 |
99.12 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
98.02 |
1.98 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Denver |
1.98 |
73.58 |
21.74 |
2.7 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
23.52 |
61.1 |
15.38 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.92 |
17.16 |
81.92 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
88.6 |
8.84 |
2.56 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
6.22 |
58.98 |
34.8 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
5.18 |
32.18 |
62.64 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
90.58 |
7.32 |
2.1 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
6.7 |
82.34 |
10.96 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
2.72 |
10.34 |
86.94 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
100.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
77.24 |
19.56 |
3.2 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
19.24 |
73.8 |
6.96 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
3.52 |
6.64 |
89.84 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
96.28 |
3.72 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Arizona |
3.72 |
95.62 |
0.66 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.06 |
54.82 |
45.12 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.6 |
44.52 |
54.88 |
Generated: Tue Dec 04 21:30:05 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
99.7 |
0.22 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Indianapolis |
0.26 |
94.64 |
4.84 |
0.1 |
0.14 |
0.02 |
100.0 |
| Pittsburgh |
0.04 |
4.98 |
71.38 |
21.0 |
0.34 |
1.9 |
99.64 |
| San Diego |
0.0 |
0.0 |
22.02 |
76.0 |
0.0 |
0.18 |
98.2 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.16 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
86.46 |
10.38 |
97.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.68 |
0.92 |
5.18 |
41.18 |
48.96 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.98 |
0.04 |
2.04 |
4.06 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
7.0 |
26.96 |
33.96 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.84 |
17.04 |
17.88 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
| Kansas City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
| Miami |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Dallas |
96.2 |
3.5 |
0.24 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Green Bay |
3.68 |
86.52 |
6.34 |
3.46 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| Seattle |
0.06 |
4.9 |
50.66 |
40.66 |
1.84 |
1.26 |
99.38 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.06 |
5.08 |
42.76 |
52.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
| NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
54.74 |
30.94 |
85.68 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.72 |
1.64 |
11.02 |
16.38 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
35.22 |
34.76 |
69.98 |
| New Orleans |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.1 |
8.9 |
11.0 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.3 |
5.42 |
7.72 |
| Philadelphia |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.98 |
5.38 |
7.36 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
| Chicago |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.6 |
0.68 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
| Atlanta |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 04 21:30:05 EST 2007
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »