November 30th, 2010
Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
51.736 |
40.908 |
7.356 |
0.0 |
| NY Jets |
46.184 |
46.966 |
6.85 |
0.0 |
| Miami |
2.08 |
12.126 |
85.71 |
0.084 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.084 |
99.916 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
63.862 |
36.114 |
0.024 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
36.138 |
63.654 |
0.208 |
0.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.232 |
87.014 |
12.754 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
12.754 |
87.246 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
53.72 |
24.61 |
14.91 |
6.76 |
| Tennessee |
25.748 |
29.248 |
23.8 |
21.204 |
| Houston |
11.462 |
26.62 |
33.738 |
28.18 |
| Jacksonville |
9.07 |
19.522 |
27.552 |
43.856 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
72.16 |
27.11 |
0.722 |
0.0080 |
| Kansas City |
27.58 |
69.76 |
2.616 |
0.044 |
| Oakland |
0.258 |
3.004 |
86.25 |
10.488 |
| Denver |
0.0020 |
0.126 |
10.412 |
89.46 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Philadelphia |
48.706 |
47.626 |
3.328 |
0.34 |
| NY Giants |
50.052 |
43.144 |
6.632 |
0.172 |
| Washington |
1.238 |
8.092 |
70.634 |
20.036 |
| Dallas |
0.0040 |
1.138 |
19.406 |
79.452 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
65.422 |
34.522 |
0.056 |
0.0 |
| Chicago |
34.574 |
63.862 |
1.564 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0040 |
1.616 |
96.126 |
2.254 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.254 |
97.746 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Atlanta |
69.32 |
24.392 |
6.288 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
25.836 |
55.298 |
18.866 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
4.844 |
20.31 |
74.846 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
51.148 |
30.124 |
17.878 |
0.85 |
| San Francisco |
23.684 |
35.008 |
33.376 |
7.932 |
| St Louis |
24.66 |
30.886 |
32.46 |
11.994 |
| Arizona |
0.508 |
3.982 |
16.286 |
79.224 |
Generated: Tue Nov 30 19:22:27 EST 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| New England |
39.384 |
11.916 |
0.424 |
0.012 |
32.406 |
9.14 |
93.282 |
| Pittsburgh |
28.834 |
30.77 |
3.944 |
0.314 |
17.336 |
15.514 |
96.712 |
| NY Jets |
18.972 |
24.002 |
3.156 |
0.054 |
21.796 |
22.974 |
90.954 |
| Baltimore |
12.072 |
16.922 |
6.53 |
0.614 |
23.13 |
25.256 |
84.524 |
| San Diego |
0.564 |
12.792 |
56.342 |
2.462 |
0.714 |
6.77 |
79.644 |
| Kansas City |
0.16 |
2.052 |
20.75 |
4.618 |
1.512 |
8.97 |
38.062 |
| Indianapolis |
0.0 |
0.658 |
6.34 |
46.722 |
0.014 |
0.352 |
54.086 |
| Miami |
0.01 |
0.834 |
1.128 |
0.108 |
3.056 |
10.362 |
15.498 |
| Tennessee |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.814 |
24.934 |
0.0 |
0.028 |
25.776 |
| Houston |
0.0020 |
0.014 |
0.262 |
11.184 |
0.014 |
0.356 |
11.832 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0020 |
0.036 |
0.188 |
8.844 |
0.022 |
0.224 |
9.316 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.122 |
0.132 |
0.0 |
0.032 |
0.29 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.022 |
0.022 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Atlanta |
57.88 |
8.354 |
3.076 |
0.01 |
20.42 |
5.182 |
94.922 |
| New Orleans |
21.004 |
4.336 |
0.494 |
0.0020 |
47.346 |
14.924 |
88.106 |
| Green Bay |
5.842 |
41.658 |
17.598 |
0.324 |
4.314 |
13.556 |
83.292 |
| NY Giants |
5.132 |
17.338 |
27.512 |
0.07 |
3.606 |
13.276 |
66.934 |
| Chicago |
4.294 |
18.074 |
12.06 |
0.146 |
7.294 |
20.42 |
62.288 |
| Philadelphia |
3.588 |
8.14 |
36.386 |
0.592 |
2.828 |
7.898 |
59.432 |
| Tampa Bay |
2.254 |
1.894 |
0.68 |
0.016 |
14.124 |
23.61 |
42.578 |
| Seattle |
0.0060 |
0.126 |
1.054 |
49.962 |
0.0020 |
0.014 |
51.164 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.096 |
24.564 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
24.66 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
23.664 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
23.684 |
| Washington |
0.0 |
0.08 |
1.018 |
0.14 |
0.05 |
0.826 |
2.114 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.508 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.508 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.0 |
0.016 |
0.292 |
0.312 |
| Dallas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.0020 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.0060 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Tue Nov 30 19:22:27 EST 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
November 24th, 2010
Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Jets |
47.732 |
41.792 |
10.468 |
0.0080 |
| New England |
48.324 |
40.264 |
11.408 |
0.0040 |
| Miami |
3.944 |
17.94 |
77.784 |
0.332 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.34 |
99.656 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
70.066 |
29.882 |
0.052 |
0.0 |
| Baltimore |
29.932 |
69.41 |
0.656 |
0.0020 |
| Cleveland |
0.0020 |
0.692 |
80.91 |
18.396 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.016 |
18.382 |
81.602 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
43.178 |
32.154 |
18.89 |
5.778 |
| Tennessee |
42.526 |
31.418 |
16.454 |
9.602 |
| Jacksonville |
10.618 |
24.994 |
37.724 |
26.664 |
| Houston |
3.678 |
11.434 |
26.932 |
57.956 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
68.088 |
29.444 |
2.32 |
0.148 |
| Kansas City |
30.826 |
62.644 |
5.912 |
0.618 |
| Oakland |
0.948 |
6.328 |
72.03 |
20.694 |
| Denver |
0.138 |
1.584 |
19.738 |
78.54 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Philadelphia |
70.874 |
26.466 |
2.354 |
0.306 |
| NY Giants |
26.872 |
56.476 |
15.242 |
1.41 |
| Washington |
2.108 |
15.714 |
63.674 |
18.504 |
| Dallas |
0.146 |
1.344 |
18.73 |
79.78 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
80.676 |
19.31 |
0.014 |
0.0 |
| Chicago |
19.324 |
78.44 |
2.236 |
0.0 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
2.242 |
87.784 |
9.974 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0080 |
9.966 |
90.026 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Atlanta |
68.174 |
22.998 |
8.828 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
20.914 |
44.718 |
34.368 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
10.912 |
32.284 |
56.804 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
100.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
66.414 |
22.834 |
9.634 |
1.118 |
| San Francisco |
16.918 |
36.726 |
27.74 |
18.616 |
| St Louis |
14.238 |
24.3 |
32.374 |
29.088 |
| Arizona |
2.43 |
16.14 |
30.252 |
51.178 |
Generated: Wed Nov 24 01:14:22 EST 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Pittsburgh |
37.39 |
26.858 |
5.324 |
0.494 |
16.21 |
10.146 |
96.422 |
| New England |
31.648 |
15.218 |
1.346 |
0.112 |
29.7 |
11.418 |
89.442 |
| NY Jets |
17.022 |
24.332 |
5.834 |
0.544 |
17.96 |
20.466 |
86.158 |
| Baltimore |
11.424 |
12.32 |
5.474 |
0.714 |
26.54 |
24.256 |
80.728 |
| San Diego |
1.534 |
13.446 |
40.388 |
12.72 |
1.896 |
7.44 |
77.424 |
| Indianapolis |
0.488 |
2.66 |
14.596 |
25.434 |
0.266 |
2.192 |
45.636 |
| Kansas City |
0.364 |
2.694 |
17.4 |
10.368 |
2.03 |
8.344 |
41.2 |
| Miami |
0.082 |
1.83 |
1.756 |
0.276 |
5.044 |
13.286 |
22.274 |
| Tennessee |
0.02 |
0.33 |
6.328 |
35.848 |
0.018 |
0.338 |
42.882 |
| Jacksonville |
0.026 |
0.274 |
1.098 |
9.22 |
0.254 |
1.334 |
12.206 |
| Houston |
0.0 |
0.026 |
0.17 |
3.482 |
0.052 |
0.396 |
4.126 |
| Oakland |
0.0020 |
0.012 |
0.262 |
0.672 |
0.03 |
0.296 |
1.274 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.024 |
0.114 |
0.0 |
0.0080 |
0.146 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.0 |
0.08 |
0.082 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Green Bay |
38.778 |
24.264 |
17.178 |
0.456 |
7.808 |
5.07 |
93.554 |
| Atlanta |
26.63 |
22.612 |
18.556 |
0.376 |
12.416 |
9.294 |
89.884 |
| Philadelphia |
16.356 |
24.076 |
29.936 |
0.506 |
6.896 |
7.516 |
85.286 |
| New Orleans |
6.62 |
9.14 |
5.134 |
0.02 |
29.742 |
20.674 |
71.33 |
| NY Giants |
5.19 |
8.37 |
13.248 |
0.064 |
12.974 |
17.956 |
57.802 |
| Tampa Bay |
3.406 |
4.348 |
3.114 |
0.044 |
20.278 |
21.37 |
52.56 |
| Chicago |
2.952 |
6.726 |
9.388 |
0.258 |
8.544 |
14.32 |
42.188 |
| Seattle |
0.03 |
0.23 |
1.54 |
64.614 |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
66.418 |
| Washington |
0.038 |
0.234 |
1.736 |
0.1 |
1.32 |
3.468 |
6.896 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.012 |
16.906 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
16.918 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.034 |
14.204 |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
14.242 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.43 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
2.432 |
| Dallas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.124 |
0.022 |
0.012 |
0.134 |
0.292 |
| Minnesota |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.01 |
0.188 |
0.198 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Wed Nov 24 01:14:22 EST 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
November 17th, 2010
Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Jets |
47.432 |
33.78 |
18.784 |
0.0040 |
| New England |
40.096 |
37.126 |
22.774 |
0.0040 |
| Miami |
12.472 |
29.094 |
58.406 |
0.028 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.036 |
99.964 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
66.838 |
32.584 |
0.57 |
0.0080 |
| Baltimore |
33.066 |
63.938 |
2.864 |
0.132 |
| Cleveland |
0.088 |
3.134 |
72.738 |
24.04 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0080 |
0.344 |
23.828 |
75.82 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tennessee |
51.796 |
34.648 |
10.08 |
3.476 |
| Indianapolis |
42.884 |
41.81 |
12.04 |
3.266 |
| Houston |
2.986 |
12.066 |
40.648 |
44.3 |
| Jacksonville |
2.334 |
11.476 |
37.232 |
48.958 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| San Diego |
56.924 |
33.43 |
8.304 |
1.342 |
| Kansas City |
38.052 |
48.946 |
11.378 |
1.624 |
| Oakland |
4.256 |
14.494 |
63.152 |
18.098 |
| Denver |
0.768 |
3.13 |
17.166 |
78.936 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
54.456 |
40.948 |
4.362 |
0.234 |
| Philadelphia |
44.758 |
51.246 |
3.568 |
0.428 |
| Washington |
0.722 |
6.082 |
65.648 |
27.548 |
| Dallas |
0.064 |
1.724 |
26.422 |
71.79 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
79.986 |
18.408 |
1.594 |
0.012 |
| Chicago |
18.764 |
67.376 |
13.73 |
0.13 |
| Minnesota |
1.248 |
14.024 |
77.454 |
7.274 |
| Detroit |
0.0020 |
0.192 |
7.222 |
92.584 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Atlanta |
68.77 |
23.752 |
7.478 |
0.0 |
| New Orleans |
24.334 |
50.968 |
24.698 |
0.0 |
| Tampa Bay |
6.896 |
25.28 |
67.822 |
0.0020 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
99.998 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
46.464 |
33.912 |
17.664 |
1.96 |
| San Francisco |
36.312 |
35.332 |
19.616 |
8.74 |
| St Louis |
15.32 |
22.34 |
36.24 |
26.1 |
| Arizona |
1.904 |
8.416 |
26.48 |
63.2 |
Generated: Wed Nov 17 22:38:30 EST 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Pittsburgh |
34.692 |
23.048 |
7.35 |
1.748 |
16.034 |
9.576 |
92.448 |
| New England |
24.692 |
11.154 |
3.476 |
0.774 |
26.048 |
12.874 |
79.018 |
| NY Jets |
17.608 |
20.224 |
7.62 |
1.98 |
15.042 |
16.34 |
78.814 |
| Baltimore |
13.042 |
12.258 |
6.05 |
1.716 |
22.306 |
18.198 |
73.57 |
| Indianapolis |
4.76 |
8.516 |
14.868 |
14.74 |
3.122 |
6.658 |
52.664 |
| San Diego |
2.054 |
10.892 |
24.042 |
19.936 |
2.104 |
6.098 |
65.126 |
| Miami |
1.964 |
6.468 |
3.204 |
0.836 |
12.352 |
19.57 |
44.394 |
| Tennessee |
0.58 |
3.49 |
16.338 |
31.388 |
0.282 |
1.526 |
53.604 |
| Kansas City |
0.538 |
3.48 |
15.372 |
18.662 |
1.706 |
5.904 |
45.662 |
| Oakland |
0.042 |
0.242 |
0.766 |
3.206 |
0.226 |
0.91 |
5.392 |
| Houston |
0.018 |
0.13 |
0.492 |
2.346 |
0.43 |
1.13 |
4.546 |
| Jacksonville |
0.01 |
0.08 |
0.292 |
1.952 |
0.186 |
0.67 |
3.19 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.016 |
0.034 |
0.038 |
0.16 |
0.52 |
0.768 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.094 |
0.674 |
0.0 |
0.014 |
0.782 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.0020 |
0.0040 |
0.0020 |
0.012 |
0.022 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Atlanta |
28.07 |
23.364 |
16.766 |
0.57 |
11.198 |
10.704 |
90.672 |
| Green Bay |
25.672 |
24.48 |
27.898 |
1.936 |
4.434 |
4.944 |
89.364 |
| NY Giants |
19.884 |
18.856 |
15.604 |
0.112 |
14.498 |
15.066 |
84.02 |
| Philadelphia |
13.818 |
16.004 |
14.698 |
0.238 |
17.126 |
16.046 |
77.93 |
| New Orleans |
9.52 |
9.586 |
5.052 |
0.176 |
33.732 |
19.884 |
77.95 |
| Tampa Bay |
1.736 |
2.804 |
2.292 |
0.064 |
13.794 |
19.58 |
40.27 |
| Chicago |
1.172 |
4.082 |
12.398 |
1.112 |
3.972 |
9.214 |
31.95 |
| Seattle |
0.09 |
0.45 |
2.714 |
43.21 |
0.028 |
0.19 |
46.682 |
| Washington |
0.026 |
0.198 |
0.448 |
0.05 |
0.67 |
2.244 |
3.636 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0080 |
0.718 |
35.586 |
0.0060 |
0.026 |
36.344 |
| Minnesota |
0.012 |
0.142 |
0.966 |
0.128 |
0.478 |
1.806 |
3.532 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.026 |
0.392 |
14.902 |
0.0060 |
0.066 |
15.392 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
1.908 |
| Dallas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.05 |
0.014 |
0.058 |
0.226 |
0.348 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Generated: Wed Nov 17 22:38:30 EST 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »
November 10th, 2010
Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Jets |
57.802 |
28.818 |
13.378 |
0.0020 |
| New England |
28.528 |
40.496 |
30.95 |
0.026 |
| Miami |
13.67 |
30.682 |
55.536 |
0.112 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.136 |
99.86 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
90.2 |
9.6 |
0.194 |
0.0060 |
| Baltimore |
9.646 |
80.206 |
9.58 |
0.568 |
| Cleveland |
0.154 |
9.326 |
72.942 |
17.578 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.868 |
17.284 |
81.848 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tennessee |
64.538 |
23.626 |
11.124 |
0.712 |
| Indianapolis |
27.09 |
46.59 |
23.672 |
2.648 |
| Houston |
8.122 |
26.926 |
53.138 |
11.814 |
| Jacksonville |
0.25 |
2.858 |
12.066 |
84.826 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Kansas City |
51.438 |
40.618 |
7.564 |
0.38 |
| San Diego |
45.21 |
45.848 |
8.632 |
0.31 |
| Oakland |
3.262 |
12.926 |
78.422 |
5.39 |
| Denver |
0.09 |
0.608 |
5.382 |
93.92 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
87.818 |
11.17 |
1.008 |
0.0040 |
| Philadelphia |
11.03 |
70.32 |
17.606 |
1.044 |
| Washington |
1.15 |
17.98 |
75.882 |
4.988 |
| Dallas |
0.0020 |
0.53 |
5.504 |
93.964 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
80.624 |
17.196 |
2.156 |
0.024 |
| Chicago |
16.098 |
56.566 |
25.622 |
1.714 |
| Minnesota |
3.26 |
25.296 |
61.08 |
10.364 |
| Detroit |
0.018 |
0.942 |
11.142 |
87.898 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New Orleans |
43.084 |
42.774 |
14.142 |
0.0 |
| Atlanta |
49.604 |
36.022 |
14.242 |
0.132 |
| Tampa Bay |
7.312 |
21.178 |
70.764 |
0.746 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.026 |
0.852 |
99.122 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| St Louis |
39.416 |
25.38 |
20.052 |
15.152 |
| Seattle |
26.05 |
29.71 |
25.912 |
18.328 |
| San Francisco |
20.658 |
24.42 |
27.196 |
27.726 |
| Arizona |
13.876 |
20.49 |
26.84 |
38.794 |
Generated: Wed Nov 10 09:15:34 EST 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Pittsburgh |
77.258 |
9.394 |
2.81 |
0.738 |
7.814 |
1.192 |
99.206 |
| NY Jets |
6.848 |
20.462 |
17.162 |
13.33 |
6.038 |
8.362 |
72.202 |
| Baltimore |
5.77 |
2.22 |
1.18 |
0.476 |
33.5 |
18.304 |
61.45 |
| New England |
3.108 |
10.706 |
8.72 |
5.994 |
11.784 |
11.862 |
52.174 |
| Tennessee |
2.036 |
16.5 |
19.23 |
26.772 |
2.184 |
4.87 |
71.592 |
| Kansas City |
1.722 |
14.738 |
17.44 |
17.538 |
6.582 |
10.418 |
68.438 |
| Indianapolis |
1.834 |
8.31 |
8.768 |
8.178 |
9.574 |
12.002 |
48.666 |
| San Diego |
0.932 |
12.32 |
16.844 |
15.114 |
10.762 |
12.394 |
68.366 |
| Miami |
0.186 |
3.464 |
4.866 |
5.154 |
4.71 |
8.898 |
27.278 |
| Houston |
0.226 |
1.568 |
2.142 |
4.186 |
4.542 |
6.714 |
19.378 |
| Oakland |
0.038 |
0.274 |
0.768 |
2.182 |
0.74 |
1.986 |
5.988 |
| Cleveland |
0.038 |
0.038 |
0.032 |
0.046 |
1.682 |
2.654 |
4.49 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0040 |
0.0060 |
0.032 |
0.208 |
0.07 |
0.248 |
0.568 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0060 |
0.084 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.092 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.018 |
0.094 |
0.112 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| NY Giants |
58.458 |
20.086 |
9.236 |
0.038 |
6.924 |
3.314 |
98.056 |
| Green Bay |
18.412 |
25.524 |
34.944 |
1.744 |
4.948 |
4.864 |
90.436 |
| New Orleans |
8.98 |
21.19 |
12.444 |
0.47 |
27.448 |
15.994 |
86.526 |
| Atlanta |
8.822 |
21.916 |
17.98 |
0.886 |
14.246 |
16.224 |
80.074 |
| Philadelphia |
3.778 |
3.992 |
3.2 |
0.06 |
26.394 |
21.13 |
58.554 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.796 |
3.282 |
3.158 |
0.076 |
10.694 |
17.038 |
35.044 |
| Chicago |
0.454 |
2.718 |
11.9 |
1.026 |
4.54 |
9.902 |
30.54 |
| Washington |
0.174 |
0.434 |
0.504 |
0.038 |
3.156 |
6.83 |
11.136 |
| Minnesota |
0.078 |
0.328 |
2.664 |
0.19 |
1.532 |
4.062 |
8.854 |
| St Louis |
0.028 |
0.36 |
2.328 |
36.7 |
0.042 |
0.198 |
39.656 |
| Seattle |
0.02 |
0.166 |
1.234 |
24.63 |
0.052 |
0.278 |
26.38 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.248 |
20.41 |
0.0 |
0.016 |
20.674 |
| Arizona |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.144 |
13.73 |
0.0 |
0.022 |
13.898 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.016 |
0.0 |
0.018 |
0.086 |
0.122 |
| Dallas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.0060 |
0.036 |
0.044 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0060 |
0.0060 |
Generated: Wed Nov 10 09:15:34 EST 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
November 3rd, 2010
Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
49.162 |
30.842 |
19.974 |
0.022 |
| NY Jets |
28.576 |
35.402 |
35.968 |
0.054 |
| Miami |
22.262 |
33.752 |
43.868 |
0.118 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.19 |
99.806 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
87.896 |
12.002 |
0.098 |
0.0040 |
| Baltimore |
12.05 |
82.76 |
4.656 |
0.534 |
| Cleveland |
0.036 |
3.412 |
57.418 |
39.134 |
| Cincinnati |
0.018 |
1.826 |
37.828 |
60.328 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
51.572 |
33.3 |
14.11 |
1.018 |
| Tennessee |
35.746 |
36.126 |
26.156 |
1.972 |
| Houston |
12.436 |
28.798 |
49.41 |
9.356 |
| Jacksonville |
0.246 |
1.776 |
10.324 |
87.654 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Kansas City |
83.318 |
15.454 |
1.192 |
0.036 |
| San Diego |
15.834 |
76.066 |
7.514 |
0.586 |
| Oakland |
0.814 |
7.582 |
77.328 |
14.276 |
| Denver |
0.034 |
0.898 |
13.966 |
85.102 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
92.78 |
6.432 |
0.766 |
0.022 |
| Philadelphia |
5.576 |
56.968 |
30.864 |
6.592 |
| Washington |
1.63 |
33.662 |
56.688 |
8.02 |
| Dallas |
0.014 |
2.938 |
11.682 |
85.366 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
70.282 |
25.352 |
4.06 |
0.306 |
| Chicago |
25.268 |
51.242 |
20.046 |
3.444 |
| Minnesota |
4.148 |
20.176 |
54.228 |
21.448 |
| Detroit |
0.302 |
3.23 |
21.666 |
74.802 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Atlanta |
56.152 |
27.562 |
15.58 |
0.706 |
| New Orleans |
30.008 |
45.512 |
23.792 |
0.688 |
| Tampa Bay |
13.8 |
26.548 |
57.222 |
2.43 |
| Carolina |
0.04 |
0.378 |
3.406 |
96.176 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
27.764 |
28.66 |
25.188 |
18.388 |
| St Louis |
33.736 |
25.138 |
22.164 |
18.962 |
| San Francisco |
20.546 |
23.924 |
26.032 |
29.498 |
| Arizona |
17.954 |
22.278 |
26.616 |
33.152 |
Generated: Wed Nov 03 09:35:59 EDT 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Pittsburgh |
61.424 |
16.45 |
7.178 |
2.844 |
7.942 |
2.162 |
98.0 |
| Kansas City |
10.23 |
23.588 |
25.52 |
23.98 |
2.22 |
3.49 |
89.028 |
| New England |
9.058 |
14.848 |
13.69 |
11.566 |
12.234 |
10.792 |
72.188 |
| Indianapolis |
8.198 |
16.992 |
14.722 |
11.66 |
11.014 |
9.926 |
72.512 |
| Baltimore |
3.986 |
3.516 |
2.718 |
1.83 |
22.092 |
16.244 |
50.386 |
| NY Jets |
3.106 |
6.932 |
8.922 |
9.616 |
8.82 |
11.504 |
48.9 |
| Tennessee |
1.252 |
7.058 |
10.604 |
16.832 |
5.064 |
8.534 |
49.344 |
| Miami |
1.304 |
5.01 |
7.444 |
8.504 |
9.54 |
11.346 |
43.148 |
| Houston |
1.134 |
2.984 |
3.866 |
4.452 |
8.62 |
9.96 |
31.016 |
| San Diego |
0.298 |
2.566 |
5.192 |
7.778 |
12.032 |
14.884 |
42.75 |
| Oakland |
0.0080 |
0.046 |
0.108 |
0.652 |
0.168 |
0.418 |
1.4 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0020 |
0.0020 |
0.0040 |
0.01 |
0.028 |
0.088 |
0.134 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0060 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.154 |
0.372 |
0.562 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.022 |
0.222 |
0.072 |
0.278 |
0.596 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.034 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.036 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| NY Giants |
69.692 |
17.112 |
5.808 |
0.168 |
4.214 |
1.786 |
98.78 |
| Green Bay |
11.256 |
21.904 |
33.02 |
4.102 |
6.87 |
6.486 |
83.638 |
| Atlanta |
9.358 |
28.4 |
16.954 |
1.44 |
12.722 |
11.728 |
80.602 |
| New Orleans |
4.712 |
15.95 |
8.646 |
0.7 |
26.804 |
18.144 |
74.956 |
| Tampa Bay |
1.59 |
7.138 |
4.768 |
0.304 |
13.63 |
16.54 |
43.97 |
| Philadelphia |
2.094 |
2.006 |
1.404 |
0.072 |
20.618 |
17.788 |
43.982 |
| Chicago |
0.616 |
4.992 |
17.078 |
2.582 |
6.08 |
10.146 |
41.494 |
| Washington |
0.46 |
0.596 |
0.512 |
0.062 |
6.9 |
10.95 |
19.48 |
| Seattle |
0.094 |
0.732 |
3.24 |
23.698 |
0.232 |
0.848 |
28.844 |
| St Louis |
0.036 |
0.654 |
3.75 |
29.296 |
0.18 |
0.546 |
34.462 |
| Minnesota |
0.088 |
0.406 |
3.04 |
0.614 |
1.356 |
3.626 |
9.13 |
| Arizona |
0.0020 |
0.064 |
0.872 |
17.016 |
0.022 |
0.182 |
18.158 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.016 |
0.64 |
19.89 |
0.0020 |
0.064 |
20.612 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.024 |
0.23 |
0.048 |
0.13 |
0.544 |
0.976 |
| Dallas |
0.0020 |
0.0020 |
0.01 |
0.0 |
0.218 |
0.516 |
0.748 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.028 |
0.0080 |
0.022 |
0.106 |
0.168 |
Generated: Wed Nov 03 09:35:59 EDT 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
October 27th, 2010
Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New England |
47.7 |
31.854 |
20.404 |
0.042 |
| NY Jets |
33.2 |
36.298 |
30.456 |
0.046 |
| Miami |
19.1 |
31.842 |
48.842 |
0.216 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0060 |
0.298 |
99.696 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
94.84 |
5.1 |
0.054 |
0.0060 |
| Baltimore |
5.084 |
83.366 |
9.744 |
1.806 |
| Cleveland |
0.048 |
6.32 |
50.814 |
42.818 |
| Cincinnati |
0.028 |
5.214 |
39.388 |
55.37 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
49.818 |
31.954 |
17.9 |
0.328 |
| Tennessee |
30.086 |
34.798 |
34.376 |
0.74 |
| Houston |
20.066 |
32.994 |
44.752 |
2.188 |
| Jacksonville |
0.03 |
0.254 |
2.972 |
96.744 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Kansas City |
85.33 |
14.03 |
0.598 |
0.042 |
| San Diego |
14.286 |
79.672 |
5.416 |
0.626 |
| Denver |
0.268 |
4.412 |
47.914 |
47.406 |
| Oakland |
0.116 |
1.886 |
46.072 |
51.926 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
82.51 |
13.61 |
3.646 |
0.234 |
| Washington |
9.384 |
44.824 |
39.038 |
6.754 |
| Philadelphia |
7.95 |
37.24 |
41.758 |
13.052 |
| Dallas |
0.156 |
4.326 |
15.558 |
79.96 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Green Bay |
64.016 |
29.804 |
5.728 |
0.452 |
| Chicago |
30.41 |
49.01 |
18.352 |
2.228 |
| Minnesota |
5.294 |
18.944 |
57.696 |
18.066 |
| Detroit |
0.28 |
2.242 |
18.224 |
79.254 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Atlanta |
72.678 |
19.56 |
6.99 |
0.772 |
| New Orleans |
11.328 |
41.586 |
40.892 |
6.194 |
| Tampa Bay |
15.662 |
36.534 |
41.426 |
6.378 |
| Carolina |
0.332 |
2.32 |
10.692 |
86.656 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
73.798 |
17.744 |
6.52 |
1.938 |
| Arizona |
11.076 |
31.722 |
31.518 |
25.684 |
| San Francisco |
7.062 |
27.846 |
30.842 |
34.25 |
| St Louis |
8.064 |
22.688 |
31.12 |
38.128 |
Generated: Wed Oct 27 17:27:19 EDT 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Pittsburgh |
77.34 |
12.328 |
4.024 |
1.148 |
3.946 |
0.746 |
99.532 |
| Kansas City |
6.644 |
26.112 |
27.364 |
25.21 |
2.0 |
3.132 |
90.462 |
| Indianapolis |
5.642 |
19.982 |
14.812 |
9.382 |
12.542 |
10.672 |
73.032 |
| New England |
4.118 |
13.728 |
15.194 |
14.66 |
10.14 |
10.326 |
68.166 |
| NY Jets |
1.676 |
7.302 |
10.768 |
13.454 |
6.972 |
10.006 |
50.178 |
| Baltimore |
2.218 |
1.492 |
0.904 |
0.47 |
26.998 |
17.976 |
50.058 |
| Houston |
1.3 |
6.322 |
6.26 |
6.184 |
11.348 |
11.808 |
43.222 |
| Tennessee |
0.666 |
7.252 |
9.674 |
12.494 |
6.34 |
9.586 |
46.012 |
| Miami |
0.304 |
3.194 |
6.41 |
9.192 |
7.112 |
9.602 |
35.814 |
| San Diego |
0.086 |
2.266 |
4.532 |
7.402 |
11.64 |
14.042 |
39.968 |
| Cleveland |
0.0040 |
0.014 |
0.016 |
0.014 |
0.568 |
1.178 |
1.794 |
| Cincinnati |
0.0020 |
0.0060 |
0.0060 |
0.014 |
0.354 |
0.766 |
1.148 |
| Denver |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.248 |
0.024 |
0.06 |
0.352 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.012 |
0.102 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
0.176 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.026 |
0.0060 |
0.05 |
0.086 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| NY Giants |
58.704 |
17.232 |
5.498 |
1.076 |
10.502 |
3.81 |
96.822 |
| Atlanta |
15.716 |
31.782 |
18.438 |
6.742 |
5.866 |
7.004 |
85.548 |
| Green Bay |
10.12 |
17.308 |
25.18 |
11.408 |
6.39 |
7.248 |
77.654 |
| Seattle |
3.43 |
9.14 |
19.152 |
42.076 |
0.39 |
1.028 |
75.216 |
| Washington |
3.896 |
3.506 |
1.618 |
0.364 |
23.192 |
17.818 |
50.394 |
| Philadelphia |
3.332 |
2.808 |
1.5 |
0.31 |
20.946 |
17.41 |
46.306 |
| Tampa Bay |
2.066 |
6.694 |
5.028 |
1.874 |
10.78 |
12.95 |
39.392 |
| New Orleans |
1.414 |
4.71 |
3.696 |
1.508 |
12.986 |
15.532 |
39.846 |
| Chicago |
1.098 |
5.708 |
14.214 |
9.39 |
5.368 |
9.252 |
45.03 |
| Minnesota |
0.154 |
0.628 |
2.584 |
1.928 |
1.562 |
3.042 |
9.898 |
| Arizona |
0.024 |
0.188 |
1.332 |
9.532 |
0.346 |
1.058 |
12.48 |
| St Louis |
0.022 |
0.166 |
0.96 |
6.916 |
0.2 |
0.642 |
8.906 |
| Dallas |
0.024 |
0.046 |
0.07 |
0.016 |
1.196 |
2.146 |
3.498 |
| San Francisco |
0.0 |
0.02 |
0.462 |
6.58 |
0.054 |
0.194 |
7.31 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.048 |
0.166 |
0.118 |
0.126 |
0.53 |
0.988 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.016 |
0.102 |
0.162 |
0.096 |
0.336 |
0.712 |
Generated: Wed Oct 27 17:27:19 EDT 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
October 20th, 2010
Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Jets |
41.536 |
33.576 |
24.802 |
0.086 |
| Miami |
35.916 |
34.216 |
29.652 |
0.216 |
| New England |
22.544 |
32.172 |
44.96 |
0.324 |
| Buffalo |
0.0040 |
0.036 |
0.586 |
99.374 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
77.586 |
21.406 |
0.984 |
0.024 |
| Baltimore |
21.858 |
70.614 |
6.934 |
0.594 |
| Cincinnati |
0.508 |
6.468 |
62.024 |
31.0 |
| Cleveland |
0.048 |
1.512 |
30.058 |
68.382 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Indianapolis |
54.466 |
31.476 |
13.164 |
0.894 |
| Houston |
31.28 |
40.358 |
25.252 |
3.11 |
| Tennessee |
14.056 |
26.778 |
52.592 |
6.574 |
| Jacksonville |
0.198 |
1.388 |
8.992 |
89.422 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Kansas City |
71.628 |
24.464 |
3.818 |
0.09 |
| San Diego |
25.364 |
62.414 |
11.936 |
0.286 |
| Denver |
2.982 |
12.828 |
74.148 |
10.042 |
| Oakland |
0.026 |
0.294 |
10.098 |
89.582 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Giants |
69.718 |
19.35 |
8.114 |
2.818 |
| Philadelphia |
14.046 |
34.158 |
29.142 |
22.654 |
| Washington |
11.224 |
29.996 |
35.41 |
23.37 |
| Dallas |
5.012 |
16.496 |
27.334 |
51.158 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
56.53 |
33.906 |
9.04 |
0.524 |
| Green Bay |
36.812 |
47.734 |
14.226 |
1.228 |
| Minnesota |
6.55 |
17.194 |
62.086 |
14.17 |
| Detroit |
0.108 |
1.166 |
14.648 |
84.078 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| New Orleans |
52.286 |
34.876 |
11.736 |
1.102 |
| Atlanta |
36.416 |
37.298 |
22.35 |
3.936 |
| Tampa Bay |
10.758 |
25.15 |
53.228 |
10.864 |
| Carolina |
0.54 |
2.676 |
12.686 |
84.098 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
86.254 |
10.694 |
2.506 |
0.546 |
| St Louis |
6.964 |
36.912 |
32.178 |
23.946 |
| San Francisco |
4.27 |
34.086 |
32.744 |
28.9 |
| Arizona |
2.512 |
18.308 |
32.572 |
46.608 |
Generated: Wed Oct 20 17:45:21 EDT 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Pittsburgh |
45.416 |
17.666 |
9.454 |
5.05 |
11.118 |
5.076 |
93.78 |
| Indianapolis |
13.53 |
18.064 |
13.76 |
9.112 |
11.686 |
9.856 |
76.008 |
| Kansas City |
11.906 |
19.67 |
22.036 |
18.016 |
4.898 |
6.616 |
83.142 |
| Baltimore |
7.398 |
6.176 |
4.738 |
3.546 |
22.206 |
16.95 |
61.014 |
| Houston |
6.248 |
9.436 |
8.484 |
7.112 |
12.25 |
12.298 |
55.828 |
| Miami |
4.774 |
6.864 |
10.288 |
13.99 |
6.526 |
8.716 |
51.158 |
| NY Jets |
4.378 |
7.758 |
12.094 |
17.306 |
5.04 |
8.238 |
54.814 |
| San Diego |
3.55 |
7.574 |
7.854 |
6.386 |
17.51 |
15.352 |
58.226 |
| New England |
2.062 |
3.814 |
6.266 |
10.402 |
4.764 |
7.568 |
34.876 |
| Tennessee |
0.686 |
2.732 |
4.218 |
6.42 |
3.004 |
6.284 |
23.344 |
| Cincinnati |
0.04 |
0.094 |
0.126 |
0.248 |
0.568 |
1.198 |
2.274 |
| Denver |
0.012 |
0.132 |
0.622 |
2.216 |
0.308 |
1.344 |
4.634 |
| Jacksonville |
0.0 |
0.016 |
0.046 |
0.136 |
0.066 |
0.284 |
0.548 |
| Cleveland |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.012 |
0.032 |
0.054 |
0.202 |
0.304 |
| Oakland |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0020 |
0.024 |
0.0020 |
0.014 |
0.042 |
| Buffalo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.0 |
0.0040 |
0.0080 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| NY Giants |
37.614 |
18.538 |
9.836 |
3.73 |
11.512 |
7.186 |
88.416 |
| Seattle |
18.874 |
20.652 |
21.14 |
25.588 |
1.106 |
1.608 |
88.968 |
| Chicago |
12.876 |
16.896 |
16.692 |
10.066 |
12.706 |
9.754 |
78.99 |
| Green Bay |
10.374 |
10.952 |
9.94 |
5.546 |
20.414 |
12.404 |
69.63 |
| New Orleans |
7.624 |
13.014 |
15.14 |
16.508 |
7.23 |
9.128 |
68.644 |
| Philadelphia |
4.296 |
4.404 |
3.712 |
1.634 |
16.014 |
14.81 |
44.87 |
| Atlanta |
3.052 |
6.766 |
10.52 |
16.078 |
4.412 |
7.532 |
48.36 |
| Washington |
2.96 |
3.266 |
3.126 |
1.872 |
12.36 |
13.118 |
36.702 |
| Minnesota |
0.744 |
1.346 |
2.136 |
2.324 |
3.8 |
5.942 |
16.292 |
| Tampa Bay |
0.646 |
1.822 |
3.308 |
4.982 |
2.846 |
4.912 |
18.516 |
| Dallas |
0.692 |
1.324 |
1.758 |
1.238 |
5.058 |
7.66 |
17.73 |
| St Louis |
0.218 |
0.76 |
1.68 |
4.306 |
1.862 |
3.698 |
12.524 |
| San Francisco |
0.018 |
0.108 |
0.492 |
3.652 |
0.31 |
0.942 |
5.522 |
| Arizona |
0.012 |
0.128 |
0.37 |
2.002 |
0.194 |
0.716 |
3.422 |
| Carolina |
0.0 |
0.016 |
0.108 |
0.416 |
0.046 |
0.198 |
0.784 |
| Detroit |
0.0 |
0.0080 |
0.042 |
0.058 |
0.13 |
0.392 |
0.63 |
Generated: Wed Oct 20 17:45:21 EDT 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
October 13th, 2010
It is still a few weeks before I would would start reading too much into these predictions, nevertheless, I’m going to start posting them on a weekly basis. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| NY Jets |
39.894 |
32.052 |
21.192 |
6.862 |
| Miami |
31.496 |
31.534 |
29.106 |
7.864 |
| New England |
26.662 |
30.39 |
33.296 |
9.652 |
| Buffalo |
1.948 |
6.024 |
16.406 |
75.622 |
AFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Pittsburgh |
67.422 |
21.146 |
8.43 |
3.002 |
| Baltimore |
20.362 |
40.012 |
26.328 |
13.298 |
| Cincinnati |
7.23 |
21.602 |
33.668 |
37.5 |
| Cleveland |
4.986 |
17.24 |
31.574 |
46.2 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Houston |
48.444 |
34.876 |
13.792 |
2.888 |
| Indianapolis |
40.838 |
39.642 |
16.058 |
3.462 |
| Tennessee |
9.386 |
19.938 |
48.448 |
22.228 |
| Jacksonville |
1.332 |
5.544 |
21.702 |
71.422 |
AFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Kansas City |
59.828 |
31.82 |
8.218 |
0.134 |
| San Diego |
33.966 |
49.864 |
15.828 |
0.342 |
| Denver |
6.176 |
18.048 |
70.228 |
5.548 |
| Oakland |
0.03 |
0.268 |
5.726 |
93.976 |
NFC EAST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Dallas |
51.148 |
27.588 |
14.734 |
6.53 |
| Philadelphia |
22.66 |
28.942 |
28.116 |
20.282 |
| Washington |
18.266 |
27.472 |
30.16 |
24.102 |
| NY Giants |
7.926 |
15.998 |
26.99 |
49.086 |
NFC NORTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Chicago |
82.218 |
16.986 |
0.754 |
0.042 |
| Green Bay |
17.2 |
72.908 |
8.292 |
1.6 |
| Minnesota |
0.454 |
6.056 |
51.922 |
41.568 |
| Detroit |
0.128 |
4.05 |
39.032 |
56.79 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Tampa Bay |
46.856 |
28.402 |
19.174 |
5.568 |
| New Orleans |
25.134 |
30.744 |
29.866 |
14.256 |
| Atlanta |
24.916 |
30.994 |
29.376 |
14.714 |
| Carolina |
3.094 |
9.86 |
21.584 |
65.462 |
NFC WEST
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
| Seattle |
93.592 |
5.666 |
0.656 |
0.086 |
| San Francisco |
4.62 |
60.062 |
25.976 |
9.342 |
| Arizona |
1.506 |
26.772 |
50.164 |
21.558 |
| St Louis |
0.282 |
7.5 |
23.204 |
69.014 |
Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Kansas City |
31.52 |
16.644 |
8.71 |
2.954 |
19.208 |
8.654 |
87.69 |
| Pittsburgh |
22.256 |
23.064 |
14.978 |
7.124 |
6.2 |
7.782 |
81.404 |
| San Diego |
15.854 |
10.34 |
5.856 |
1.916 |
28.73 |
13.218 |
75.914 |
| Houston |
9.74 |
12.696 |
15.774 |
10.234 |
7.464 |
8.824 |
64.732 |
| Indianapolis |
8.442 |
10.844 |
13.074 |
8.478 |
9.834 |
10.36 |
61.032 |
| Baltimore |
3.708 |
6.834 |
6.24 |
3.58 |
8.522 |
12.636 |
41.52 |
| NY Jets |
2.194 |
5.096 |
9.932 |
22.672 |
1.884 |
3.918 |
45.696 |
| Miami |
1.932 |
4.556 |
8.082 |
16.926 |
2.284 |
4.938 |
38.718 |
| New England |
1.384 |
3.388 |
6.798 |
15.092 |
1.98 |
4.666 |
33.308 |
| Denver |
1.382 |
1.84 |
1.948 |
1.006 |
6.434 |
9.084 |
21.694 |
| Cincinnati |
0.728 |
1.898 |
2.386 |
2.218 |
3.07 |
5.706 |
16.006 |
| Tennessee |
0.498 |
1.254 |
3.446 |
4.188 |
1.758 |
3.798 |
14.942 |
| Cleveland |
0.324 |
1.3 |
1.96 |
1.402 |
2.144 |
4.976 |
12.106 |
| Jacksonville |
0.018 |
0.154 |
0.458 |
0.702 |
0.316 |
0.82 |
2.468 |
| Buffalo |
0.018 |
0.086 |
0.344 |
1.5 |
0.138 |
0.524 |
2.61 |
| Oakland |
0.0020 |
0.0060 |
0.014 |
0.0080 |
0.034 |
0.096 |
0.16 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| Chicago |
57.918 |
16.882 |
5.644 |
1.774 |
13.228 |
2.518 |
97.964 |
| Seattle |
22.224 |
35.874 |
21.344 |
14.15 |
0.91 |
1.412 |
95.914 |
| Green Bay |
8.746 |
5.506 |
2.204 |
0.744 |
47.742 |
13.26 |
78.202 |
| Dallas |
4.052 |
14.948 |
21.332 |
10.816 |
7.96 |
12.4 |
71.508 |
| Tampa Bay |
2.112 |
7.508 |
12.806 |
24.43 |
2.456 |
5.95 |
55.262 |
| Philadelphia |
1.674 |
5.28 |
9.74 |
5.966 |
5.694 |
13.824 |
42.178 |
| Washington |
1.14 |
4.204 |
7.894 |
5.028 |
6.164 |
11.886 |
36.316 |
| New Orleans |
0.814 |
3.624 |
6.906 |
13.79 |
2.802 |
7.816 |
35.752 |
| Atlanta |
0.566 |
2.81 |
6.196 |
15.344 |
2.246 |
5.93 |
33.092 |
| NY Giants |
0.474 |
1.788 |
3.326 |
2.338 |
3.368 |
7.684 |
18.978 |
| San Francisco |
0.166 |
1.044 |
1.434 |
1.976 |
3.676 |
8.028 |
16.324 |
| Minnesota |
0.066 |
0.152 |
0.15 |
0.086 |
1.67 |
3.25 |
5.374 |
| Arizona |
0.018 |
0.204 |
0.426 |
0.858 |
0.656 |
2.142 |
4.304 |
| Carolina |
0.018 |
0.106 |
0.504 |
2.466 |
0.266 |
1.152 |
4.512 |
| Detroit |
0.012 |
0.044 |
0.034 |
0.038 |
1.032 |
2.224 |
3.384 |
| St Louis |
0.0 |
0.026 |
0.06 |
0.196 |
0.13 |
0.524 |
0.936 |
Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010
Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »
September 18th, 2010
The Fifth Down had an interesting article this week on the importance of winning in week 1: 52% of the teams who win in week 1 make the playoffs, compared to 23% of the teams who lose in week 1.
We can break this down further by using my software. According to my software, teams that won have a 44 to 51% chance of making the playoffs and teams that lost as having a 25 to 30% chance. The reason that for the differences between the prediction of my program and the historical records is that all the teams currently have identical power ratings in my software. For my predictions, variation in each category comes from two sources. First teams that won on the road on week 1 will tend to be ranked higher than teams that won at home because they have a 8 home games remaining (each with a 58% chance of victory) and 7 road games remaining (each with a 42% chance of victory). The second source of variation is how your division foes did. Kansas City benefits because they won while all their division foes lost.
Advanced NFL Stats pointed out that the success of teams that win in week 1 can be attributed to two factors: 1) the benefit of actually winning the game and 2) the fact that winning in week 1 indicates the likelihood of winning in future weeks due to being a strong team. We can quantify these two effects as follows. Consider that at the beginning of the season, assuming all teams were equally rated, each had a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs. So based on the historical record the improvement in playoff odds during week 1 is 52-37.5 = 14.5%. Now if we take the software predictions as averaging a 47.5% chance of making the playoffs for week-1-winning teams, we can conclude that the effect of actually winning the game accounts for (47.5-37.5)/14.5 = 69% of the success of week-1-winning teams in making the playoffs. The remaining 31% of the benefit of winning in week 1 comes from the fact that you might actually be a good team.
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
September 12th, 2010
Just a note for those of you receiving the RSS feed. The software has been updated with data for the 2010 season, but it will still be a few weeks before Brian Burke starts posting his efficiency ratings and a few weeks after that before the predictions mean much. For now, all of the teams have essentially the same power rating. Have fun.
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »