Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 45.06 | 30.882 | 17.008 | 7.05 |
| Miami | 35.278 | 30.14 | 21.346 | 13.236 |
| NY Jets | 13.6 | 24.782 | 33.97 | 27.648 |
| Buffalo | 6.062 | 14.196 | 27.676 | 52.066 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Cleveland | 44.95 | 28.874 | 17.562 | 8.614 |
| Cincinnati | 25.136 | 29.95 | 28.39 | 16.524 |
| Baltimore | 22.05 | 26.444 | 28.664 | 22.842 |
| Pittsburgh | 7.864 | 14.732 | 25.384 | 52.02 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Indianapolis | 42.114 | 31.358 | 26.168 | 0.36 |
| Tennessee | 34.764 | 35.52 | 28.936 | 0.78 |
| Houston | 23.1 | 32.884 | 42.516 | 1.5 |
| Jacksonville | 0.022 | 0.238 | 2.38 | 97.36 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 72.976 | 21.852 | 4.988 | 0.184 |
| Kansas City | 21.354 | 52.348 | 23.87 | 2.428 |
| San Diego | 5.568 | 24.144 | 58.968 | 11.32 |
| Oakland | 0.102 | 1.656 | 12.174 | 86.068 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Philadelphia | 59.168 | 24.928 | 11.596 | 4.308 |
| Dallas | 24.908 | 35.094 | 25.352 | 14.646 |
| NY Giants | 8.546 | 19.598 | 32.512 | 39.344 |
| Washington | 7.378 | 20.38 | 30.54 | 41.702 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Detroit | 75.978 | 17.332 | 5.394 | 1.296 |
| Chicago | 11.19 | 37.838 | 32.858 | 18.114 |
| Green Bay | 10.304 | 29.788 | 31.978 | 27.93 |
| Minnesota | 2.528 | 15.042 | 29.77 | 52.66 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New Orleans | 93.406 | 5.89 | 0.662 | 0.042 |
| Carolina | 4.322 | 45.066 | 35.146 | 15.466 |
| Atlanta | 2.052 | 39.248 | 40.1 | 18.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.22 | 9.796 | 24.092 | 65.892 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Seattle | 89.992 | 8.488 | 1.424 | 0.096 |
| San Francisco | 4.692 | 47.348 | 40.426 | 7.534 |
| Arizona | 5.192 | 41.174 | 43.366 | 10.268 |
| St Louis | 0.124 | 2.99 | 14.784 | 82.102 |
Generated: Wed Oct 02 23:41:29 EDT 2013
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Denver | 49.894 | 15.346 | 6.818 | 0.918 | 14.162 | 5.432 | 92.57 |
| Kansas City | 11.738 | 5.8 | 3.214 | 0.602 | 27.39 | 14.13 | 62.874 |
| New England | 8.388 | 14.886 | 15.098 | 6.688 | 6.232 | 8.812 | 60.104 |
| Indianapolis | 7.664 | 13.724 | 15.728 | 4.998 | 6.974 | 9.096 | 58.184 |
| Tennessee | 7.39 | 13.898 | 11.342 | 2.134 | 12.398 | 13.264 | 60.426 |
| Miami | 7.012 | 13.846 | 11.022 | 3.398 | 8.422 | 10.692 | 54.392 |
| Houston | 3.52 | 8.084 | 8.528 | 2.968 | 7.522 | 10.836 | 41.458 |
| San Diego | 1.71 | 1.86 | 1.564 | 0.434 | 8.622 | 10.254 | 24.444 |
| Cleveland | 0.822 | 3.398 | 8.496 | 32.234 | 0.54 | 1.458 | 46.948 |
| NY Jets | 0.822 | 3.86 | 6.252 | 2.666 | 3.828 | 7.352 | 24.78 |
| Cincinnati | 0.442 | 1.962 | 4.706 | 18.026 | 0.636 | 1.666 | 27.438 |
| Buffalo | 0.422 | 1.712 | 2.764 | 1.164 | 2.538 | 4.774 | 13.374 |
| Baltimore | 0.15 | 1.364 | 3.608 | 16.928 | 0.36 | 1.08 | 23.49 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.01 | 0.228 | 0.812 | 6.814 | 0.096 | 0.442 | 8.402 |
| Oakland | 0.016 | 0.03 | 0.042 | 0.014 | 0.274 | 0.686 | 1.062 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.006 | 0.014 | 0.006 | 0.026 | 0.054 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| New Orleans | 46.114 | 28.382 | 14.71 | 4.2 | 3.314 | 1.492 | 98.212 |
| Seattle | 37.24 | 29.226 | 17.764 | 5.762 | 4.53 | 2.196 | 96.718 |
| Detroit | 10.812 | 22.934 | 29.324 | 12.908 | 6.376 | 5.66 | 88.014 |
| Philadelphia | 2.058 | 6.972 | 14.112 | 36.026 | 3.42 | 4.486 | 67.074 |
| Chicago | 0.796 | 2.492 | 4.838 | 3.064 | 10.93 | 11.606 | 33.726 |
| San Francisco | 0.656 | 1.42 | 1.728 | 0.888 | 15.358 | 12.576 | 32.626 |
| Dallas | 0.498 | 1.84 | 5.132 | 17.438 | 3.906 | 5.844 | 34.658 |
| Green Bay | 0.414 | 2.02 | 4.632 | 3.238 | 7.672 | 9.594 | 27.57 |
| Carolina | 0.482 | 1.404 | 1.638 | 0.798 | 13.262 | 11.826 | 29.41 |
| Arizona | 0.436 | 1.722 | 1.968 | 1.066 | 12.636 | 12.112 | 29.94 |
| Atlanta | 0.338 | 0.6 | 0.694 | 0.42 | 11.314 | 10.394 | 23.76 |
| Minnesota | 0.084 | 0.456 | 1.174 | 0.814 | 3.706 | 5.338 | 11.572 |
| NY Giants | 0.034 | 0.292 | 1.346 | 6.874 | 1.084 | 2.47 | 12.1 |
| Washington | 0.014 | 0.184 | 0.812 | 6.368 | 1.118 | 2.216 | 10.712 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.024 | 0.048 | 0.08 | 0.068 | 1.154 | 1.748 | 3.122 |
| St Louis | 0.0 | 0.008 | 0.048 | 0.068 | 0.22 | 0.442 | 0.786 |
Generated: Wed Oct 02 23:41:29 EDT 2013