2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 9

November 10th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 57.802 28.818 13.378 0.0020
New England 28.528 40.496 30.95 0.026
Miami 13.67 30.682 55.536 0.112
Buffalo 0.0 0.0040 0.136 99.86

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 90.2 9.6 0.194 0.0060
Baltimore 9.646 80.206 9.58 0.568
Cleveland 0.154 9.326 72.942 17.578
Cincinnati 0.0 0.868 17.284 81.848

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 64.538 23.626 11.124 0.712
Indianapolis 27.09 46.59 23.672 2.648
Houston 8.122 26.926 53.138 11.814
Jacksonville 0.25 2.858 12.066 84.826

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 51.438 40.618 7.564 0.38
San Diego 45.21 45.848 8.632 0.31
Oakland 3.262 12.926 78.422 5.39
Denver 0.09 0.608 5.382 93.92

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 87.818 11.17 1.008 0.0040
Philadelphia 11.03 70.32 17.606 1.044
Washington 1.15 17.98 75.882 4.988
Dallas 0.0020 0.53 5.504 93.964

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 80.624 17.196 2.156 0.024
Chicago 16.098 56.566 25.622 1.714
Minnesota 3.26 25.296 61.08 10.364
Detroit 0.018 0.942 11.142 87.898

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 43.084 42.774 14.142 0.0
Atlanta 49.604 36.022 14.242 0.132
Tampa Bay 7.312 21.178 70.764 0.746
Carolina 0.0 0.026 0.852 99.122

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
St Louis 39.416 25.38 20.052 15.152
Seattle 26.05 29.71 25.912 18.328
San Francisco 20.658 24.42 27.196 27.726
Arizona 13.876 20.49 26.84 38.794

Generated: Wed Nov 10 09:15:34 EST 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 77.258 9.394 2.81 0.738 7.814 1.192 99.206
NY Jets 6.848 20.462 17.162 13.33 6.038 8.362 72.202
Baltimore 5.77 2.22 1.18 0.476 33.5 18.304 61.45
New England 3.108 10.706 8.72 5.994 11.784 11.862 52.174
Tennessee 2.036 16.5 19.23 26.772 2.184 4.87 71.592
Kansas City 1.722 14.738 17.44 17.538 6.582 10.418 68.438
Indianapolis 1.834 8.31 8.768 8.178 9.574 12.002 48.666
San Diego 0.932 12.32 16.844 15.114 10.762 12.394 68.366
Miami 0.186 3.464 4.866 5.154 4.71 8.898 27.278
Houston 0.226 1.568 2.142 4.186 4.542 6.714 19.378
Oakland 0.038 0.274 0.768 2.182 0.74 1.986 5.988
Cleveland 0.038 0.038 0.032 0.046 1.682 2.654 4.49
Jacksonville 0.0040 0.0060 0.032 0.208 0.07 0.248 0.568
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.084 0.0 0.0020 0.092
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.094 0.112
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 58.458 20.086 9.236 0.038 6.924 3.314 98.056
Green Bay 18.412 25.524 34.944 1.744 4.948 4.864 90.436
New Orleans 8.98 21.19 12.444 0.47 27.448 15.994 86.526
Atlanta 8.822 21.916 17.98 0.886 14.246 16.224 80.074
Philadelphia 3.778 3.992 3.2 0.06 26.394 21.13 58.554
Tampa Bay 0.796 3.282 3.158 0.076 10.694 17.038 35.044
Chicago 0.454 2.718 11.9 1.026 4.54 9.902 30.54
Washington 0.174 0.434 0.504 0.038 3.156 6.83 11.136
Minnesota 0.078 0.328 2.664 0.19 1.532 4.062 8.854
St Louis 0.028 0.36 2.328 36.7 0.042 0.198 39.656
Seattle 0.02 0.166 1.234 24.63 0.052 0.278 26.38
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.248 20.41 0.0 0.016 20.674
Arizona 0.0 0.0020 0.144 13.73 0.0 0.022 13.898
Detroit 0.0 0.0020 0.016 0.0 0.018 0.086 0.122
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0060 0.036 0.044
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0060

Generated: Wed Nov 10 09:15:34 EST 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 8

November 3rd, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 49.162 30.842 19.974 0.022
NY Jets 28.576 35.402 35.968 0.054
Miami 22.262 33.752 43.868 0.118
Buffalo 0.0 0.0040 0.19 99.806

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 87.896 12.002 0.098 0.0040
Baltimore 12.05 82.76 4.656 0.534
Cleveland 0.036 3.412 57.418 39.134
Cincinnati 0.018 1.826 37.828 60.328

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 51.572 33.3 14.11 1.018
Tennessee 35.746 36.126 26.156 1.972
Houston 12.436 28.798 49.41 9.356
Jacksonville 0.246 1.776 10.324 87.654

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 83.318 15.454 1.192 0.036
San Diego 15.834 76.066 7.514 0.586
Oakland 0.814 7.582 77.328 14.276
Denver 0.034 0.898 13.966 85.102

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 92.78 6.432 0.766 0.022
Philadelphia 5.576 56.968 30.864 6.592
Washington 1.63 33.662 56.688 8.02
Dallas 0.014 2.938 11.682 85.366

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 70.282 25.352 4.06 0.306
Chicago 25.268 51.242 20.046 3.444
Minnesota 4.148 20.176 54.228 21.448
Detroit 0.302 3.23 21.666 74.802

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 56.152 27.562 15.58 0.706
New Orleans 30.008 45.512 23.792 0.688
Tampa Bay 13.8 26.548 57.222 2.43
Carolina 0.04 0.378 3.406 96.176

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 27.764 28.66 25.188 18.388
St Louis 33.736 25.138 22.164 18.962
San Francisco 20.546 23.924 26.032 29.498
Arizona 17.954 22.278 26.616 33.152

Generated: Wed Nov 03 09:35:59 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 61.424 16.45 7.178 2.844 7.942 2.162 98.0
Kansas City 10.23 23.588 25.52 23.98 2.22 3.49 89.028
New England 9.058 14.848 13.69 11.566 12.234 10.792 72.188
Indianapolis 8.198 16.992 14.722 11.66 11.014 9.926 72.512
Baltimore 3.986 3.516 2.718 1.83 22.092 16.244 50.386
NY Jets 3.106 6.932 8.922 9.616 8.82 11.504 48.9
Tennessee 1.252 7.058 10.604 16.832 5.064 8.534 49.344
Miami 1.304 5.01 7.444 8.504 9.54 11.346 43.148
Houston 1.134 2.984 3.866 4.452 8.62 9.96 31.016
San Diego 0.298 2.566 5.192 7.778 12.032 14.884 42.75
Oakland 0.0080 0.046 0.108 0.652 0.168 0.418 1.4
Cincinnati 0.0020 0.0020 0.0040 0.01 0.028 0.088 0.134
Cleveland 0.0 0.0060 0.01 0.02 0.154 0.372 0.562
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0020 0.022 0.222 0.072 0.278 0.596
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.0 0.0020 0.036
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 69.692 17.112 5.808 0.168 4.214 1.786 98.78
Green Bay 11.256 21.904 33.02 4.102 6.87 6.486 83.638
Atlanta 9.358 28.4 16.954 1.44 12.722 11.728 80.602
New Orleans 4.712 15.95 8.646 0.7 26.804 18.144 74.956
Tampa Bay 1.59 7.138 4.768 0.304 13.63 16.54 43.97
Philadelphia 2.094 2.006 1.404 0.072 20.618 17.788 43.982
Chicago 0.616 4.992 17.078 2.582 6.08 10.146 41.494
Washington 0.46 0.596 0.512 0.062 6.9 10.95 19.48
Seattle 0.094 0.732 3.24 23.698 0.232 0.848 28.844
St Louis 0.036 0.654 3.75 29.296 0.18 0.546 34.462
Minnesota 0.088 0.406 3.04 0.614 1.356 3.626 9.13
Arizona 0.0020 0.064 0.872 17.016 0.022 0.182 18.158
San Francisco 0.0 0.016 0.64 19.89 0.0020 0.064 20.612
Detroit 0.0 0.024 0.23 0.048 0.13 0.544 0.976
Dallas 0.0020 0.0020 0.01 0.0 0.218 0.516 0.748
Carolina 0.0 0.0040 0.028 0.0080 0.022 0.106 0.168

Generated: Wed Nov 03 09:35:59 EDT 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 7

October 27th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 47.7 31.854 20.404 0.042
NY Jets 33.2 36.298 30.456 0.046
Miami 19.1 31.842 48.842 0.216
Buffalo 0.0 0.0060 0.298 99.696

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 94.84 5.1 0.054 0.0060
Baltimore 5.084 83.366 9.744 1.806
Cleveland 0.048 6.32 50.814 42.818
Cincinnati 0.028 5.214 39.388 55.37

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 49.818 31.954 17.9 0.328
Tennessee 30.086 34.798 34.376 0.74
Houston 20.066 32.994 44.752 2.188
Jacksonville 0.03 0.254 2.972 96.744

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 85.33 14.03 0.598 0.042
San Diego 14.286 79.672 5.416 0.626
Denver 0.268 4.412 47.914 47.406
Oakland 0.116 1.886 46.072 51.926

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 82.51 13.61 3.646 0.234
Washington 9.384 44.824 39.038 6.754
Philadelphia 7.95 37.24 41.758 13.052
Dallas 0.156 4.326 15.558 79.96

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 64.016 29.804 5.728 0.452
Chicago 30.41 49.01 18.352 2.228
Minnesota 5.294 18.944 57.696 18.066
Detroit 0.28 2.242 18.224 79.254

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 72.678 19.56 6.99 0.772
New Orleans 11.328 41.586 40.892 6.194
Tampa Bay 15.662 36.534 41.426 6.378
Carolina 0.332 2.32 10.692 86.656

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 73.798 17.744 6.52 1.938
Arizona 11.076 31.722 31.518 25.684
San Francisco 7.062 27.846 30.842 34.25
St Louis 8.064 22.688 31.12 38.128

Generated: Wed Oct 27 17:27:19 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 77.34 12.328 4.024 1.148 3.946 0.746 99.532
Kansas City 6.644 26.112 27.364 25.21 2.0 3.132 90.462
Indianapolis 5.642 19.982 14.812 9.382 12.542 10.672 73.032
New England 4.118 13.728 15.194 14.66 10.14 10.326 68.166
NY Jets 1.676 7.302 10.768 13.454 6.972 10.006 50.178
Baltimore 2.218 1.492 0.904 0.47 26.998 17.976 50.058
Houston 1.3 6.322 6.26 6.184 11.348 11.808 43.222
Tennessee 0.666 7.252 9.674 12.494 6.34 9.586 46.012
Miami 0.304 3.194 6.41 9.192 7.112 9.602 35.814
San Diego 0.086 2.266 4.532 7.402 11.64 14.042 39.968
Cleveland 0.0040 0.014 0.016 0.014 0.568 1.178 1.794
Cincinnati 0.0020 0.0060 0.0060 0.014 0.354 0.766 1.148
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.248 0.024 0.06 0.352
Oakland 0.0 0.0020 0.012 0.102 0.01 0.05 0.176
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.026 0.0060 0.05 0.086
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 58.704 17.232 5.498 1.076 10.502 3.81 96.822
Atlanta 15.716 31.782 18.438 6.742 5.866 7.004 85.548
Green Bay 10.12 17.308 25.18 11.408 6.39 7.248 77.654
Seattle 3.43 9.14 19.152 42.076 0.39 1.028 75.216
Washington 3.896 3.506 1.618 0.364 23.192 17.818 50.394
Philadelphia 3.332 2.808 1.5 0.31 20.946 17.41 46.306
Tampa Bay 2.066 6.694 5.028 1.874 10.78 12.95 39.392
New Orleans 1.414 4.71 3.696 1.508 12.986 15.532 39.846
Chicago 1.098 5.708 14.214 9.39 5.368 9.252 45.03
Minnesota 0.154 0.628 2.584 1.928 1.562 3.042 9.898
Arizona 0.024 0.188 1.332 9.532 0.346 1.058 12.48
St Louis 0.022 0.166 0.96 6.916 0.2 0.642 8.906
Dallas 0.024 0.046 0.07 0.016 1.196 2.146 3.498
San Francisco 0.0 0.02 0.462 6.58 0.054 0.194 7.31
Carolina 0.0 0.048 0.166 0.118 0.126 0.53 0.988
Detroit 0.0 0.016 0.102 0.162 0.096 0.336 0.712

Generated: Wed Oct 27 17:27:19 EDT 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 6

October 20th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 41.536 33.576 24.802 0.086
Miami 35.916 34.216 29.652 0.216
New England 22.544 32.172 44.96 0.324
Buffalo 0.0040 0.036 0.586 99.374

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 77.586 21.406 0.984 0.024
Baltimore 21.858 70.614 6.934 0.594
Cincinnati 0.508 6.468 62.024 31.0
Cleveland 0.048 1.512 30.058 68.382

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 54.466 31.476 13.164 0.894
Houston 31.28 40.358 25.252 3.11
Tennessee 14.056 26.778 52.592 6.574
Jacksonville 0.198 1.388 8.992 89.422

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 71.628 24.464 3.818 0.09
San Diego 25.364 62.414 11.936 0.286
Denver 2.982 12.828 74.148 10.042
Oakland 0.026 0.294 10.098 89.582

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 69.718 19.35 8.114 2.818
Philadelphia 14.046 34.158 29.142 22.654
Washington 11.224 29.996 35.41 23.37
Dallas 5.012 16.496 27.334 51.158

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 56.53 33.906 9.04 0.524
Green Bay 36.812 47.734 14.226 1.228
Minnesota 6.55 17.194 62.086 14.17
Detroit 0.108 1.166 14.648 84.078

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 52.286 34.876 11.736 1.102
Atlanta 36.416 37.298 22.35 3.936
Tampa Bay 10.758 25.15 53.228 10.864
Carolina 0.54 2.676 12.686 84.098

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 86.254 10.694 2.506 0.546
St Louis 6.964 36.912 32.178 23.946
San Francisco 4.27 34.086 32.744 28.9
Arizona 2.512 18.308 32.572 46.608

Generated: Wed Oct 20 17:45:21 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 45.416 17.666 9.454 5.05 11.118 5.076 93.78
Indianapolis 13.53 18.064 13.76 9.112 11.686 9.856 76.008
Kansas City 11.906 19.67 22.036 18.016 4.898 6.616 83.142
Baltimore 7.398 6.176 4.738 3.546 22.206 16.95 61.014
Houston 6.248 9.436 8.484 7.112 12.25 12.298 55.828
Miami 4.774 6.864 10.288 13.99 6.526 8.716 51.158
NY Jets 4.378 7.758 12.094 17.306 5.04 8.238 54.814
San Diego 3.55 7.574 7.854 6.386 17.51 15.352 58.226
New England 2.062 3.814 6.266 10.402 4.764 7.568 34.876
Tennessee 0.686 2.732 4.218 6.42 3.004 6.284 23.344
Cincinnati 0.04 0.094 0.126 0.248 0.568 1.198 2.274
Denver 0.012 0.132 0.622 2.216 0.308 1.344 4.634
Jacksonville 0.0 0.016 0.046 0.136 0.066 0.284 0.548
Cleveland 0.0 0.0040 0.012 0.032 0.054 0.202 0.304
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.024 0.0020 0.014 0.042
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.0 0.0040 0.0080

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 37.614 18.538 9.836 3.73 11.512 7.186 88.416
Seattle 18.874 20.652 21.14 25.588 1.106 1.608 88.968
Chicago 12.876 16.896 16.692 10.066 12.706 9.754 78.99
Green Bay 10.374 10.952 9.94 5.546 20.414 12.404 69.63
New Orleans 7.624 13.014 15.14 16.508 7.23 9.128 68.644
Philadelphia 4.296 4.404 3.712 1.634 16.014 14.81 44.87
Atlanta 3.052 6.766 10.52 16.078 4.412 7.532 48.36
Washington 2.96 3.266 3.126 1.872 12.36 13.118 36.702
Minnesota 0.744 1.346 2.136 2.324 3.8 5.942 16.292
Tampa Bay 0.646 1.822 3.308 4.982 2.846 4.912 18.516
Dallas 0.692 1.324 1.758 1.238 5.058 7.66 17.73
St Louis 0.218 0.76 1.68 4.306 1.862 3.698 12.524
San Francisco 0.018 0.108 0.492 3.652 0.31 0.942 5.522
Arizona 0.012 0.128 0.37 2.002 0.194 0.716 3.422
Carolina 0.0 0.016 0.108 0.416 0.046 0.198 0.784
Detroit 0.0 0.0080 0.042 0.058 0.13 0.392 0.63

Generated: Wed Oct 20 17:45:21 EDT 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 5

October 13th, 2010

It is still a few weeks before I would would start reading too much into these predictions, nevertheless, I’m going to start posting them on a weekly basis. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 39.894 32.052 21.192 6.862
Miami 31.496 31.534 29.106 7.864
New England 26.662 30.39 33.296 9.652
Buffalo 1.948 6.024 16.406 75.622

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 67.422 21.146 8.43 3.002
Baltimore 20.362 40.012 26.328 13.298
Cincinnati 7.23 21.602 33.668 37.5
Cleveland 4.986 17.24 31.574 46.2

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 48.444 34.876 13.792 2.888
Indianapolis 40.838 39.642 16.058 3.462
Tennessee 9.386 19.938 48.448 22.228
Jacksonville 1.332 5.544 21.702 71.422

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 59.828 31.82 8.218 0.134
San Diego 33.966 49.864 15.828 0.342
Denver 6.176 18.048 70.228 5.548
Oakland 0.03 0.268 5.726 93.976

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 51.148 27.588 14.734 6.53
Philadelphia 22.66 28.942 28.116 20.282
Washington 18.266 27.472 30.16 24.102
NY Giants 7.926 15.998 26.99 49.086

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 82.218 16.986 0.754 0.042
Green Bay 17.2 72.908 8.292 1.6
Minnesota 0.454 6.056 51.922 41.568
Detroit 0.128 4.05 39.032 56.79

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 46.856 28.402 19.174 5.568
New Orleans 25.134 30.744 29.866 14.256
Atlanta 24.916 30.994 29.376 14.714
Carolina 3.094 9.86 21.584 65.462

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 93.592 5.666 0.656 0.086
San Francisco 4.62 60.062 25.976 9.342
Arizona 1.506 26.772 50.164 21.558
St Louis 0.282 7.5 23.204 69.014

Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Kansas City 31.52 16.644 8.71 2.954 19.208 8.654 87.69
Pittsburgh 22.256 23.064 14.978 7.124 6.2 7.782 81.404
San Diego 15.854 10.34 5.856 1.916 28.73 13.218 75.914
Houston 9.74 12.696 15.774 10.234 7.464 8.824 64.732
Indianapolis 8.442 10.844 13.074 8.478 9.834 10.36 61.032
Baltimore 3.708 6.834 6.24 3.58 8.522 12.636 41.52
NY Jets 2.194 5.096 9.932 22.672 1.884 3.918 45.696
Miami 1.932 4.556 8.082 16.926 2.284 4.938 38.718
New England 1.384 3.388 6.798 15.092 1.98 4.666 33.308
Denver 1.382 1.84 1.948 1.006 6.434 9.084 21.694
Cincinnati 0.728 1.898 2.386 2.218 3.07 5.706 16.006
Tennessee 0.498 1.254 3.446 4.188 1.758 3.798 14.942
Cleveland 0.324 1.3 1.96 1.402 2.144 4.976 12.106
Jacksonville 0.018 0.154 0.458 0.702 0.316 0.82 2.468
Buffalo 0.018 0.086 0.344 1.5 0.138 0.524 2.61
Oakland 0.0020 0.0060 0.014 0.0080 0.034 0.096 0.16

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 57.918 16.882 5.644 1.774 13.228 2.518 97.964
Seattle 22.224 35.874 21.344 14.15 0.91 1.412 95.914
Green Bay 8.746 5.506 2.204 0.744 47.742 13.26 78.202
Dallas 4.052 14.948 21.332 10.816 7.96 12.4 71.508
Tampa Bay 2.112 7.508 12.806 24.43 2.456 5.95 55.262
Philadelphia 1.674 5.28 9.74 5.966 5.694 13.824 42.178
Washington 1.14 4.204 7.894 5.028 6.164 11.886 36.316
New Orleans 0.814 3.624 6.906 13.79 2.802 7.816 35.752
Atlanta 0.566 2.81 6.196 15.344 2.246 5.93 33.092
NY Giants 0.474 1.788 3.326 2.338 3.368 7.684 18.978
San Francisco 0.166 1.044 1.434 1.976 3.676 8.028 16.324
Minnesota 0.066 0.152 0.15 0.086 1.67 3.25 5.374
Arizona 0.018 0.204 0.426 0.858 0.656 2.142 4.304
Carolina 0.018 0.106 0.504 2.466 0.266 1.152 4.512
Detroit 0.012 0.044 0.034 0.038 1.032 2.224 3.384
St Louis 0.0 0.026 0.06 0.196 0.13 0.524 0.936

Generated: Fri Oct 01 01:42:54 EDT 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

Effect of winning in week 1

September 18th, 2010

The Fifth Down had an interesting article this week on the importance of winning in week 1: 52% of the teams who win in week 1 make the playoffs, compared to 23% of the teams who lose in week 1.

We can break this down further by using my software. According to my software, teams that won have a 44 to 51% chance of making the playoffs and teams that lost as having a 25 to 30% chance. The reason that for the differences between the prediction of my program and the historical records is that all the teams currently have identical power ratings in my software. For my predictions, variation in each category comes from two sources. First teams that won on the road on week 1 will tend to be ranked higher than teams that won at home because they have a 8 home games remaining (each with a 58% chance of victory) and 7 road games remaining (each with a 42% chance of victory). The second source of variation is how your division foes did. Kansas City benefits because they won while all their division foes lost.

Advanced NFL Stats pointed out that the success of teams that win in week 1 can be attributed to two factors: 1) the benefit of actually winning the game and 2) the fact that winning in week 1 indicates the likelihood of winning in future weeks due to being a strong team. We can quantify these two effects as follows. Consider that at the beginning of the season, assuming all teams were equally rated, each had a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs. So based on the historical record the improvement in playoff odds during week 1 is 52-37.5 = 14.5%. Now if we take the software predictions as averaging a 47.5% chance of making the playoffs for week-1-winning teams, we can conclude that the effect of actually winning the game accounts for (47.5-37.5)/14.5 = 69% of the success of week-1-winning teams in making the playoffs. The remaining 31% of the benefit of winning in week 1 comes from the fact that you might actually be a good team.

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

Up and running for 2010

September 12th, 2010

Just a note for those of you receiving the RSS feed. The software has been updated with data for the 2010 season, but it will still be a few weeks before Brian Burke starts posting his efficiency ratings and a few weeks after that before the predictions mean much. For now, all of the teams have essentially the same power rating. Have fun.

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

The 2009 NFL Seasons That Weren’t

January 7th, 2010

The phrase, “on any given Sunday,” embodies the idea that the outcome of any NFL game depends not only on the intrinsic strength of each team, but also on how well each team plays on that particular day and which team benefits more from the breaks. This random component is so pervasive that, according to a fascinating study published a few years ago by Doug Drinen, the strongest team in any particular NFL season is likely to win the Super Bowl only about 24% of the time.

We can consider the role of stochasticity in the just-completed regular season by assuming that the team efficiency ratings at the end of the season represent the “true” strength of each team. In order to avoid the effect of some teams giving less than a full effort in the final week of the season, I’ll use the week-17 team efficiency ratings, as recommended by Brian Burke. These ratings should be reasonable estimates of the “true” team strength because they are calculated from the statistics that are most highly correlated with winning and they are based on a large enough data set to have reasonable significance.

From the efficiency ratings, we can estimate the “true” odds of each game of the season, and then use these odds to simulate the entire NFL season 5,000 times. The results are given below:

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 68.96 27.66 3.06 0.32
NY Jets 28.98 58.08 10.72 2.22
Buffalo 1.3 8.78 50.28 39.64
Miami 0.76 5.48 35.94 57.82

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 54.94 30.0 14.94 0.12
Baltimore 29.72 39.74 30.1 0.44
Cincinnati 15.34 30.16 53.82 0.68
Cleveland 0.0 0.1 1.14 98.76

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 78.46 17.02 3.94 0.58
Houston 15.62 48.02 24.2 12.16
Tennessee 4.02 20.66 39.32 36.0
Jacksonville 1.9 14.3 32.54 51.26

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 78.88 21.08 0.04 0.0
Denver 21.08 77.58 1.24 0.1
Kansas City 0.02 1.0 62.74 36.24
Oakland 0.02 0.34 35.98 63.66

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 47.86 31.6 16.52 4.02
Dallas 35.68 36.9 21.82 5.6
NY Giants 15.02 25.08 41.34 18.56
Washington 1.44 6.42 20.32 71.82

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 66.86 30.2 2.92 0.02
Minnesota 31.46 59.6 8.72 0.22
Chicago 1.66 10.04 81.82 6.48
Detroit 0.02 0.16 6.54 93.28

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 94.9 4.32 0.74 0.04
Carolina 2.74 45.64 38.52 13.1
Atlanta 2.22 42.04 40.3 15.44
Tampa Bay 0.14 8.0 20.44 71.42

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 65.38 28.28 5.76 0.58
San Francisco 29.96 50.6 16.94 2.5
Seattle 4.48 18.34 57.46 19.72
St Louis 0.18 2.78 19.84 77.2

Generated: Wed Jan 06 22:42:25 EST 2010


Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 34.56 21.82 14.4 7.68 8.62 5.18 92.26
San Diego 29.32 23.68 15.58 10.3 8.82 4.92 92.62
New England 10.92 14.56 20.0 23.48 5.76 5.88 80.6
Pittsburgh 9.64 13.62 16.2 15.48 7.96 8.72 71.62
Denver 4.06 6.02 5.74 5.26 17.56 15.32 53.96
Houston 3.76 5.0 4.08 2.78 18.3 15.06 48.98
Baltimore 3.32 5.56 9.0 11.84 8.56 11.0 49.28
NY Jets 2.72 5.38 8.62 12.26 9.52 10.62 49.12
Cincinnati 1.0 2.74 4.28 7.32 6.12 9.14 30.6
Tennessee 0.58 1.24 1.06 1.14 4.68 7.54 16.24
Jacksonville 0.1 0.32 0.72 0.76 3.46 5.08 10.44
Buffalo 0.02 0.06 0.2 1.02 0.48 0.92 2.7
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.12 0.64 0.16 0.54 1.46
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.08 0.1
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 33.96 26.3 26.9 7.74 0.74 0.76 96.4
Green Bay 20.46 21.58 19.52 5.3 11.12 9.9 87.88
Philadelphia 19.3 15.52 11.0 2.04 21.6 14.02 83.48
Dallas 12.32 13.08 8.72 1.56 24.46 17.6 77.74
Minnesota 7.04 10.18 10.82 3.42 18.2 16.92 66.58
NY Giants 4.2 5.6 4.6 0.62 15.54 19.64 50.2
Arizona 1.88 4.94 11.12 47.44 0.62 1.46 67.46
San Francisco 0.22 1.3 3.42 25.02 0.72 2.66 33.34
Carolina 0.18 0.48 1.2 0.88 1.7 4.16 8.6
Washington 0.18 0.38 0.64 0.24 2.98 6.08 10.5
Atlanta 0.14 0.28 0.94 0.86 1.44 3.18 6.84
Chicago 0.12 0.34 0.8 0.4 0.78 2.92 5.36
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.22 4.26 0.06 0.36 4.9
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.02 0.1 0.02 0.04 0.28 0.46
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.18 0.0 0.02 0.2
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.04 0.06

Generated: Wed Jan 06 22:42:25 EST 2010

As NFL seasons go, this one had relatively few rare outcomes. The favored team won 5 of the 8 divisions. Of the three favorites that did not win their division, only Pittsburgh failed to qualify as a wild card. With an intrinsic 70% chance of making the playoffs, this disappointing follow up to their championship season of a year ago was a bitter pill for Steelers fans to swallow. Cincinnati’s intrinsic chances of winning their division were only 15%. They should consider themselves fortunate. Likewise, Minnesota not only managed to win their division over favored Green Bay, but also captured the 2 seed in the NFC. Their season ranked in the top 15% outcomes available to them. Miami, with only a 1% chance of making the playoffs, was competing for a playoff spot in the final week of the season. Another interesting observation is that once every 100 years or so, some truly bottom dwelling team like the Chiefs, Raiders, Browns. Bucs, Rams, or Lions would actually qualify for the playoffs. Any given Sunday, indeed.

One final curiosity. After week 6, I promoted in some circles the fact that the Broncos had essentially won the AFC West, since my software projected that they had a 99.6% chance of winning their division. These odds were based on the team efficiencies at the time. Today, I re-simulated weeks 7 through 17 again using the “true” end-of-season efficiency ratings. Their actual odds were only about 96%. So in reality their odds of missing the playoffs were about 10 times larger than I was estimating at the time. It might be worthwhile for me to incorporate some kind of uncertainty estimate in the early-season efficiency ratings in order for me to avoid similar future embarrassments. On the other hand, Denver’s improbable collapse provided a great deal of comic relief to my fellow Chief fans and I was credited with unique powers of “reverse mojo”.

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

2009 NFL Playoff Tournament Odds

January 6th, 2010

Here are the tournament odds for the upcoming NFL playoffs.Single game probabilities are from Advanced NFL Stats: http://www.advancednflstats.com/AFC Percent Probability of Team:

Team Advancing to Div Round Advancing to Conf Round Winning Conf Winning Super Bowl
Indianapolis 100.0 77.74 47.62 27.46
San Diego 100.00 69.08 34.36 17.76
New England 70.5 24.52 10.48 5.24
Cincinnati 50.98 9.7 2.38 0.76
NY Jets 49.02 12.04 3.34 1.12
Baltimore 29.5 6.92 1.92 0.76

NFC Percent Probability of Team:

Team Advancing to Div Round Advancing to Conf Round Winning Conf Winning Super Bowl
New Orleans 100.0 69.36 48.5 25.18
Minnesota 100.0 46.44 13.52 4.12
Dallas 57.04 35.34 17.06 9.1
Arizona 43.22 10.26 2.24 0.5
Green Bay 56.78 20.78 7.54 2.56
Philadelphia 42.96 17.82 11.14 5.44

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 16

December 30th, 2009

Some interesting scenarios for week 17:

The Jets are guaranteed the 5th seed if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.They cannot qualify for the 6th seed.

Likewise the Ravens are guaranteed a playoff spot if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.

Denver is the only one of the teams still in contention that can qualify for a playoff spot with a loss. However,  a win does not qualify them for a playoff spot.  In addition to a win, they need either a loss or tie from the Jets or Ravens.

A lot is at stake in the Cowboys-Eagles game. The winner could finish as high as the 2nd seed and the loser as low as the 6th seed.

Complete scenarios are available  from: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/12/nfl-playoff-scenarios.html

Single game probabilities are from Advanced NFL Stats:  http://www.advancednflstats.com/

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 88.8 11.2 0.0
Miami 0.0 11.2 88.8 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.0 88.38 11.62 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 11.62 88.38 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 41.94 41.98 16.08
Houston 0.0 49.6 20.62 29.78
Tennessee 0.0 8.46 37.4 54.14

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 57.46 42.54 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 42.54 57.46 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 87.14 12.86 0.0
Carolina 0.0 12.86 87.14 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Diego 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 0.0 82.6 17.4 0.0 0.0 100.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 17.4 82.6 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.54 0.0 66.54
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 55.02 82.42
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.62 25.46 29.08
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.08 13.8 15.88
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.96 4.26
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 1.44 1.5
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 0.32
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 42.54 0.0 0.0 24.74 32.72 100.0
Minnesota 0.0 26.44 50.02 23.54 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 17.96 27.82 11.68 0.0 42.54 100.0
Arizona 0.0 13.06 22.16 64.78 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.26 24.74 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »