2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 3

September 29th, 2011

The site is up and running for 2011. Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 31.472 33.756 30.754 4.018
Buffalo 35.894 32.714 26.522 4.87
NY Jets 31.916 30.434 31.442 6.208
Miami 0.718 3.096 11.282 84.904

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 71.536 21.458 5.444 1.562
Pittsburgh 20.872 48.964 20.742 9.422
Cincinnati 3.97 15.366 37.874 42.79
Cleveland 3.622 14.212 35.94 46.226

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 51.426 36.22 10.698 1.656
Tennessee 42.792 42.026 12.43 2.752
Jacksonville 4.854 16.078 50.65 28.418
Indianapolis 0.928 5.676 26.222 67.174

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 73.668 19.95 5.356 1.026
San Diego 18.09 43.73 29.23 8.95
Denver 6.818 28.326 41.278 23.578
Kansas City 1.424 7.994 24.136 66.446

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 55.724 26.716 13.304 4.256
Washington 27.53 38.56 23.726 10.184
NY Giants 13.452 25.692 41.004 19.852
Philadelphia 3.294 9.032 21.966 65.708

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 57.436 36.93 5.034 0.6
Detroit 40.314 49.508 9.184 0.994
Chicago 1.912 10.772 59.156 28.16
Minnesota 0.338 2.79 26.626 70.246

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 87.8 9.884 1.954 0.362
Tampa Bay 7.22 46.23 32.98 13.57
Carolina 4.084 32.364 38.14 25.412
Atlanta 0.896 11.522 26.926 60.656

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 42.298 29.448 18.892 9.362
Arizona 34.124 30.386 22.01 13.48
St Louis 16.412 23.844 29.734 30.01
Seattle 7.166 16.322 29.364 47.148

Generated: Wed Sep 28 23:59:03 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 25.816 19.912 16.178 9.63 7.43 5.738 84.704
Houston 14.34 13.724 14.412 8.95 10.25 9.436 71.112
Buffalo 12.838 11.252 8.096 3.708 15.318 12.908 64.12
Tennessee 11.71 11.92 11.686 7.476 11.978 10.512 65.282
New England 9.794 9.948 7.502 4.228 14.864 13.862 60.198
Oakland 9.074 12.536 18.304 33.754 1.384 2.522 77.574
NY Jets 8.37 9.69 8.316 5.54 12.65 13.204 57.77
Pittsburgh 5.916 5.886 5.532 3.538 15.77 12.57 49.212
San Diego 0.748 1.758 3.764 11.82 1.676 3.144 22.91
Cleveland 0.45 0.872 1.234 1.066 2.78 4.484 10.886
Cincinnati 0.446 0.884 1.288 1.352 2.592 4.212 10.774
Jacksonville 0.292 0.88 1.608 2.074 1.716 3.414 9.984
Denver 0.152 0.526 1.332 4.808 0.92 2.088 9.826
Miami 0.026 0.106 0.312 0.274 0.318 0.972 2.008
Indianapolis 0.024 0.074 0.268 0.562 0.266 0.678 1.872
Kansas City 0.0040 0.032 0.168 1.22 0.088 0.256 1.768

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 30.41 17.452 8.528 1.046 20.75 10.26 88.446
New Orleans 20.834 26.882 33.118 6.966 1.342 2.31 91.452
Dallas 19.15 20.374 14.15 2.05 13.142 12.546 81.412
Detroit 17.524 13.014 8.564 1.212 26.28 14.088 80.682
Washington 7.226 10.664 8.432 1.208 17.158 18.298 62.986
NY Giants 2.894 4.572 4.952 1.034 10.342 15.312 39.106
San Francisco 0.46 1.57 5.686 34.582 0.272 1.026 43.596
Tampa Bay 0.474 1.466 3.644 1.636 2.55 6.012 15.782
Arizona 0.292 1.374 5.314 27.144 0.302 1.336 35.762
Philadelphia 0.252 0.992 1.694 0.356 2.384 5.778 11.456
Chicago 0.242 0.55 0.94 0.18 3.252 6.592 11.756
Carolina 0.122 0.498 2.13 1.334 1.142 2.976 8.202
St Louis 0.066 0.286 1.64 14.42 0.094 0.518 17.024
Minnesota 0.042 0.094 0.148 0.054 0.58 1.504 2.422
Seattle 0.0020 0.13 0.548 6.486 0.092 0.454 7.712
Atlanta 0.01 0.082 0.512 0.292 0.318 0.99 2.204

Generated: Wed Sep 28 23:59:03 EDT 2011

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

2010 NFC Wildcard Round Match Up Probabilities

December 29th, 2010

After the Viking’s upset of the Eagles, the NFC Wildcard Round had cleared up considerably. The Eagles are locked in as the third seed and will host one of the follwing teams with the indicated probabilities:

Green Bay 78.5%

Giants 19%

Tampa 2.5%

In the other game, the winner of the St. Louis – Seattle game will host either New Orleans or Atlanta. The odds of those match ups are:

Seattle – New Orleans 56%

Seattle – Atlanta 10%

St. Louis – New Orleans 29%

St. Louis – Atlanta 5%

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

2010 AFC Wildcard Round Match Up Probabilities

December 28th, 2010

It is now possible to project the various match ups for the Wild Card round in the AFC, using my software and the Team Efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats. Here are the projections in the AFC, with the home teams listed in the first column and their probability of facing various opponents listed in each row. The most likely match ups are NY Jets @ Kansas City and Baltimore @ Indianapolis, but there are still many other match ups in play. I’ll break down the NFC match ups after the Tuesday Night Football game.

Team NY Jets Pittsburgh Baltimore Total
Kansas City 71 17 12 100
Indianapolis 27 10 54 91
Jacksonville 2 1 7 9
Total 100 27 73

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

San Francisco’s interesting situation

December 23rd, 2010

The 49ers are still in the thick of the NFC West playoff race, with a 35% chance of winning the division. At the same time, they are still mathematically alive to hold the #2 overall pick in the 2011 draft.

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 15

December 22nd, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.09 2.91 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 2.91 97.09 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 80.58 19.42 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 19.42 80.58 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 98.942 1.058
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 1.058 98.942

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 79.038 16.818 4.144 0.0
Jacksonville 18.818 75.582 5.6 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 55.03 44.97
Tennessee 2.144 7.6 35.226 55.03

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 46.496 51.324 2.18 0.0
Kansas City 52.454 43.112 4.434 0.0
Oakland 1.05 5.564 93.386 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 98.322 1.678 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 1.678 98.322 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 57.054 42.946
Dallas 0.0 0.0 42.946 57.054

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 62.464 37.536
Detroit 0.0 0.0 37.536 62.464

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 93.13 6.87 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 6.87 80.296 12.834 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 12.834 87.166 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 45.302 29.072 25.626 0.0
St Louis 19.234 44.252 34.916 1.598
San Francisco 35.464 26.676 35.766 2.094
Arizona 0.0 0.0 3.692 96.308

Generated: Wed Dec 22 13:58:50 EST 2010AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 97.09 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.91 0.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 80.52 0.06 0.0 3.272 16.148 100.0
NY Jets 2.41 0.5 0.0 0.0 34.596 61.888 99.394
Baltimore 0.5 18.92 0.0 0.0 59.154 18.542 97.116
Kansas City 0.0 0.06 48.272 4.122 0.0 0.0 52.454
San Diego 0.0 0.0 45.4 1.096 0.0 2.594 49.09
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 5.114 73.924 0.0 0.0 79.038
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.404 18.414 0.068 0.828 19.714
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.75 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.05
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.144 0.0 0.0 2.144
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 90.89 1.944 0.296 0.0 6.87 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 2.0 59.026 37.296 0.0 0.0 1.294 99.616
New Orleans 6.87 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.444 4.696 88.01
Chicago 0.24 37.588 62.172 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 1.442 0.236 0.0 7.95 46.378 56.006
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.302 0.0 0.0 45.302
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.464 0.0 0.0 35.464
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.234 0.0 0.0 19.234
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.892 38.87 46.762
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.844 8.762 9.606
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 22 13:58:50 EST 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 14

December 16th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 97.838 2.162 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 2.162 92.39 5.448 0.0
Miami 0.0 5.448 94.552 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 92.88 7.12 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 7.12 92.88 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 99.44 0.56
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.56 99.44

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Jacksonville 31.488 56.842 11.67 0.0
Indianapolis 66.174 25.012 7.578 1.236
Houston 1.306 12.73 62.73 23.234
Tennessee 1.032 5.416 18.022 75.53

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 53.264 44.394 2.342 0.0
Kansas City 45.36 48.812 5.828 0.0
Oakland 1.376 6.794 91.83 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 53.13 46.87 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 46.87 53.13 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 71.906 28.094
Dallas 0.0 0.0 28.094 71.906

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 57.696 42.304 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 42.304 57.696 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 93.88 6.12
Detroit 0.0 0.0 6.12 93.88

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 89.422 10.578 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 10.578 78.378 11.044 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 11.044 88.956 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 48.296 30.276 21.26 0.168
St Louis 27.944 36.18 33.342 2.534
San Francisco 23.76 32.642 38.808 4.79
Arizona 0.0 0.902 6.59 92.508

Generated: Thu Dec 16 01:13:17 EST 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 85.03 12.76 0.048 0.0 1.74 0.422 100.0
Pittsburgh 13.858 78.902 0.114 0.0060 3.328 3.792 100.0
Baltimore 0.304 6.808 0.0080 0.0 73.88 14.752 95.752
NY Jets 0.808 1.334 0.02 0.0 18.428 60.466 81.056
San Diego 0.0 0.0 49.532 3.732 2.202 11.244 66.71
Kansas City 0.0 0.06 39.108 6.192 0.078 3.342 48.78
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 7.678 58.496 0.0 0.078 66.252
Jacksonville 0.0 0.136 2.684 28.668 0.232 1.6 33.32
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.808 0.568 0.0 0.094 1.47
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.306 0.0 0.0 1.306
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.032 0.0 0.0 1.032
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.112 4.21 4.322
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 79.57 9.138 0.714 0.0 9.17 1.378 99.97
New Orleans 10.386 0.192 0.0 0.0 75.52 7.738 93.836
NY Giants 4.66 38.352 10.118 0.0 3.252 25.072 81.454
Philadelphia 4.61 26.288 15.972 0.0 3.078 24.5 74.448
Chicago 0.756 13.152 43.788 0.0 0.0 2.962 60.658
Green Bay 0.018 12.878 29.036 0.372 0.922 11.41 54.636
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.372 47.924 0.0 0.0 48.296
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.944 0.0 0.0 27.944
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.76 0.0 0.0 23.76
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.058 26.94 34.998
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 16 01:13:17 EST 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 13

December 7th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 82.818 16.506 0.676 0.0
NY Jets 16.958 79.664 3.378 0.0
Miami 0.224 3.83 95.868 0.078
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.078 99.922

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 91.482 8.51 0.0080 0.0
Baltimore 8.518 90.13 1.352 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 1.36 97.754 0.886
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.886 99.114

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Jacksonville 34.686 35.27 24.974 5.07
Indianapolis 44.762 25.746 17.724 11.768
Houston 11.936 24.802 36.394 26.868
Tennessee 8.616 14.182 20.908 56.294

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Kansas City 63.57 31.214 5.216 0.0
San Diego 33.468 55.428 10.996 0.108
Oakland 2.962 13.31 83.122 0.606
Denver 0.0 0.048 0.666 99.286

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 54.12 43.43 2.374 0.076
Philadelphia 45.744 51.76 2.356 0.14
Washington 0.136 3.036 62.012 34.816
Dallas 0.0 1.774 33.258 64.968

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 61.72 38.228 0.052 0.0
Chicago 38.28 61.72 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.052 99.478 0.47
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.47 99.53

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 76.776 23.142 0.082 0.0
New Orleans 23.216 70.858 5.926 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0080 6.0 93.992 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 60.46 26.964 12.556 0.02
St Louis 25.506 42.33 31.5 0.664
San Francisco 14.034 30.268 50.592 5.106
Arizona 0.0 0.438 5.352 94.21

Generated: Tue Dec 07 17:22:51 EST 2010


Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 63.258 18.65 0.904 0.0060 14.654 1.93 99.402
Pittsburgh 28.838 61.386 1.17 0.088 3.39 4.882 99.754
NY Jets 6.754 9.334 0.808 0.062 35.838 38.064 90.86
Baltimore 0.988 6.798 0.656 0.076 42.818 32.194 83.53
Kansas City 0.156 3.044 56.264 4.106 0.138 3.654 67.362
San Diego 0.0 0.396 31.582 1.49 2.552 13.034 49.054
Indianapolis 0.0 0.042 4.264 40.456 0.0020 0.398 45.162
Jacksonville 0.0060 0.31 1.616 32.754 0.176 1.19 36.052
Oakland 0.0 0.0020 2.08 0.88 0.024 0.444 3.43
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.258 11.678 0.02 0.308 12.264
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.26 8.356 0.0 0.0060 8.622
Miami 0.0 0.038 0.138 0.048 0.372 3.606 4.202
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.29 0.306
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 68.28 6.64 1.852 0.0040 19.298 3.136 99.21
New Orleans 21.132 1.888 0.196 0.0 64.258 8.05 95.524
Green Bay 1.962 42.228 17.144 0.386 3.624 20.49 85.834
NY Giants 3.352 19.808 30.868 0.092 2.352 16.136 72.608
Chicago 2.542 21.426 14.178 0.134 5.0 30.314 73.594
Philadelphia 2.73 7.906 34.572 0.536 2.128 9.068 56.94
Seattle 0.0 0.098 1.036 59.326 0.0 0.03 60.49
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.048 25.458 0.0 0.0 25.506
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.034 0.0 0.0 14.034
Tampa Bay 0.0020 0.0060 0.0 0.0 3.34 12.464 15.812
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.106 0.03 0.0 0.264 0.4
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.046 0.046
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0020
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 07 17:22:51 EST 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 12

November 30th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 51.736 40.908 7.356 0.0
NY Jets 46.184 46.966 6.85 0.0
Miami 2.08 12.126 85.71 0.084
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.084 99.916

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 63.862 36.114 0.024 0.0
Baltimore 36.138 63.654 0.208 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.232 87.014 12.754
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 12.754 87.246

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 53.72 24.61 14.91 6.76
Tennessee 25.748 29.248 23.8 21.204
Houston 11.462 26.62 33.738 28.18
Jacksonville 9.07 19.522 27.552 43.856

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 72.16 27.11 0.722 0.0080
Kansas City 27.58 69.76 2.616 0.044
Oakland 0.258 3.004 86.25 10.488
Denver 0.0020 0.126 10.412 89.46

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 48.706 47.626 3.328 0.34
NY Giants 50.052 43.144 6.632 0.172
Washington 1.238 8.092 70.634 20.036
Dallas 0.0040 1.138 19.406 79.452

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 65.422 34.522 0.056 0.0
Chicago 34.574 63.862 1.564 0.0
Minnesota 0.0040 1.616 96.126 2.254
Detroit 0.0 0.0 2.254 97.746

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 69.32 24.392 6.288 0.0
New Orleans 25.836 55.298 18.866 0.0
Tampa Bay 4.844 20.31 74.846 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 51.148 30.124 17.878 0.85
San Francisco 23.684 35.008 33.376 7.932
St Louis 24.66 30.886 32.46 11.994
Arizona 0.508 3.982 16.286 79.224

Generated: Tue Nov 30 19:22:27 EST 2010


Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 39.384 11.916 0.424 0.012 32.406 9.14 93.282
Pittsburgh 28.834 30.77 3.944 0.314 17.336 15.514 96.712
NY Jets 18.972 24.002 3.156 0.054 21.796 22.974 90.954
Baltimore 12.072 16.922 6.53 0.614 23.13 25.256 84.524
San Diego 0.564 12.792 56.342 2.462 0.714 6.77 79.644
Kansas City 0.16 2.052 20.75 4.618 1.512 8.97 38.062
Indianapolis 0.0 0.658 6.34 46.722 0.014 0.352 54.086
Miami 0.01 0.834 1.128 0.108 3.056 10.362 15.498
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.814 24.934 0.0 0.028 25.776
Houston 0.0020 0.014 0.262 11.184 0.014 0.356 11.832
Jacksonville 0.0020 0.036 0.188 8.844 0.022 0.224 9.316
Oakland 0.0 0.0040 0.122 0.132 0.0 0.032 0.29
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0 0.0 0.0020
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.022
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 57.88 8.354 3.076 0.01 20.42 5.182 94.922
New Orleans 21.004 4.336 0.494 0.0020 47.346 14.924 88.106
Green Bay 5.842 41.658 17.598 0.324 4.314 13.556 83.292
NY Giants 5.132 17.338 27.512 0.07 3.606 13.276 66.934
Chicago 4.294 18.074 12.06 0.146 7.294 20.42 62.288
Philadelphia 3.588 8.14 36.386 0.592 2.828 7.898 59.432
Tampa Bay 2.254 1.894 0.68 0.016 14.124 23.61 42.578
Seattle 0.0060 0.126 1.054 49.962 0.0020 0.014 51.164
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.096 24.564 0.0 0.0 24.66
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.02 23.664 0.0 0.0 23.684
Washington 0.0 0.08 1.018 0.14 0.05 0.826 2.114
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.508 0.0 0.0 0.508
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.0 0.016 0.292 0.312
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0020 0.0 0.0020 0.0060
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 30 19:22:27 EST 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 11

November 24th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 47.732 41.792 10.468 0.0080
New England 48.324 40.264 11.408 0.0040
Miami 3.944 17.94 77.784 0.332
Buffalo 0.0 0.0040 0.34 99.656

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 70.066 29.882 0.052 0.0
Baltimore 29.932 69.41 0.656 0.0020
Cleveland 0.0020 0.692 80.91 18.396
Cincinnati 0.0 0.016 18.382 81.602

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 43.178 32.154 18.89 5.778
Tennessee 42.526 31.418 16.454 9.602
Jacksonville 10.618 24.994 37.724 26.664
Houston 3.678 11.434 26.932 57.956

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 68.088 29.444 2.32 0.148
Kansas City 30.826 62.644 5.912 0.618
Oakland 0.948 6.328 72.03 20.694
Denver 0.138 1.584 19.738 78.54

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 70.874 26.466 2.354 0.306
NY Giants 26.872 56.476 15.242 1.41
Washington 2.108 15.714 63.674 18.504
Dallas 0.146 1.344 18.73 79.78

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 80.676 19.31 0.014 0.0
Chicago 19.324 78.44 2.236 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 2.242 87.784 9.974
Detroit 0.0 0.0080 9.966 90.026

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 68.174 22.998 8.828 0.0
New Orleans 20.914 44.718 34.368 0.0
Tampa Bay 10.912 32.284 56.804 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 66.414 22.834 9.634 1.118
San Francisco 16.918 36.726 27.74 18.616
St Louis 14.238 24.3 32.374 29.088
Arizona 2.43 16.14 30.252 51.178

Generated: Wed Nov 24 01:14:22 EST 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 37.39 26.858 5.324 0.494 16.21 10.146 96.422
New England 31.648 15.218 1.346 0.112 29.7 11.418 89.442
NY Jets 17.022 24.332 5.834 0.544 17.96 20.466 86.158
Baltimore 11.424 12.32 5.474 0.714 26.54 24.256 80.728
San Diego 1.534 13.446 40.388 12.72 1.896 7.44 77.424
Indianapolis 0.488 2.66 14.596 25.434 0.266 2.192 45.636
Kansas City 0.364 2.694 17.4 10.368 2.03 8.344 41.2
Miami 0.082 1.83 1.756 0.276 5.044 13.286 22.274
Tennessee 0.02 0.33 6.328 35.848 0.018 0.338 42.882
Jacksonville 0.026 0.274 1.098 9.22 0.254 1.334 12.206
Houston 0.0 0.026 0.17 3.482 0.052 0.396 4.126
Oakland 0.0020 0.012 0.262 0.672 0.03 0.296 1.274
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.114 0.0 0.0080 0.146
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0 0.08 0.082
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 38.778 24.264 17.178 0.456 7.808 5.07 93.554
Atlanta 26.63 22.612 18.556 0.376 12.416 9.294 89.884
Philadelphia 16.356 24.076 29.936 0.506 6.896 7.516 85.286
New Orleans 6.62 9.14 5.134 0.02 29.742 20.674 71.33
NY Giants 5.19 8.37 13.248 0.064 12.974 17.956 57.802
Tampa Bay 3.406 4.348 3.114 0.044 20.278 21.37 52.56
Chicago 2.952 6.726 9.388 0.258 8.544 14.32 42.188
Seattle 0.03 0.23 1.54 64.614 0.0 0.0040 66.418
Washington 0.038 0.234 1.736 0.1 1.32 3.468 6.896
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.012 16.906 0.0 0.0 16.918
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.034 14.204 0.0 0.0040 14.242
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.43 0.0 0.0020 2.432
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.124 0.022 0.012 0.134 0.292
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.188 0.198
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 24 01:14:22 EST 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 10

November 17th, 2010

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 47.432 33.78 18.784 0.0040
New England 40.096 37.126 22.774 0.0040
Miami 12.472 29.094 58.406 0.028
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.036 99.964

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 66.838 32.584 0.57 0.0080
Baltimore 33.066 63.938 2.864 0.132
Cleveland 0.088 3.134 72.738 24.04
Cincinnati 0.0080 0.344 23.828 75.82

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 51.796 34.648 10.08 3.476
Indianapolis 42.884 41.81 12.04 3.266
Houston 2.986 12.066 40.648 44.3
Jacksonville 2.334 11.476 37.232 48.958

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 56.924 33.43 8.304 1.342
Kansas City 38.052 48.946 11.378 1.624
Oakland 4.256 14.494 63.152 18.098
Denver 0.768 3.13 17.166 78.936

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 54.456 40.948 4.362 0.234
Philadelphia 44.758 51.246 3.568 0.428
Washington 0.722 6.082 65.648 27.548
Dallas 0.064 1.724 26.422 71.79

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 79.986 18.408 1.594 0.012
Chicago 18.764 67.376 13.73 0.13
Minnesota 1.248 14.024 77.454 7.274
Detroit 0.0020 0.192 7.222 92.584

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 68.77 23.752 7.478 0.0
New Orleans 24.334 50.968 24.698 0.0
Tampa Bay 6.896 25.28 67.822 0.0020
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0020 99.998

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 46.464 33.912 17.664 1.96
San Francisco 36.312 35.332 19.616 8.74
St Louis 15.32 22.34 36.24 26.1
Arizona 1.904 8.416 26.48 63.2

Generated: Wed Nov 17 22:38:30 EST 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 34.692 23.048 7.35 1.748 16.034 9.576 92.448
New England 24.692 11.154 3.476 0.774 26.048 12.874 79.018
NY Jets 17.608 20.224 7.62 1.98 15.042 16.34 78.814
Baltimore 13.042 12.258 6.05 1.716 22.306 18.198 73.57
Indianapolis 4.76 8.516 14.868 14.74 3.122 6.658 52.664
San Diego 2.054 10.892 24.042 19.936 2.104 6.098 65.126
Miami 1.964 6.468 3.204 0.836 12.352 19.57 44.394
Tennessee 0.58 3.49 16.338 31.388 0.282 1.526 53.604
Kansas City 0.538 3.48 15.372 18.662 1.706 5.904 45.662
Oakland 0.042 0.242 0.766 3.206 0.226 0.91 5.392
Houston 0.018 0.13 0.492 2.346 0.43 1.13 4.546
Jacksonville 0.01 0.08 0.292 1.952 0.186 0.67 3.19
Cleveland 0.0 0.016 0.034 0.038 0.16 0.52 0.768
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.094 0.674 0.0 0.014 0.782
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0020 0.0020 0.0040 0.0020 0.012 0.022
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 28.07 23.364 16.766 0.57 11.198 10.704 90.672
Green Bay 25.672 24.48 27.898 1.936 4.434 4.944 89.364
NY Giants 19.884 18.856 15.604 0.112 14.498 15.066 84.02
Philadelphia 13.818 16.004 14.698 0.238 17.126 16.046 77.93
New Orleans 9.52 9.586 5.052 0.176 33.732 19.884 77.95
Tampa Bay 1.736 2.804 2.292 0.064 13.794 19.58 40.27
Chicago 1.172 4.082 12.398 1.112 3.972 9.214 31.95
Seattle 0.09 0.45 2.714 43.21 0.028 0.19 46.682
Washington 0.026 0.198 0.448 0.05 0.67 2.244 3.636
San Francisco 0.0 0.0080 0.718 35.586 0.0060 0.026 36.344
Minnesota 0.012 0.142 0.966 0.128 0.478 1.806 3.532
St Louis 0.0 0.026 0.392 14.902 0.0060 0.066 15.392
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0040 1.9 0.0 0.0040 1.908
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.014 0.058 0.226 0.348
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0 0.0 0.0020
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 17 22:38:30 EST 2010

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »