2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 13

December 6th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.29 0.672 0.038 0.0
NY Jets 0.648 95.268 3.908 0.176
Buffalo 0.062 1.818 66.352 31.768
Miami 0.0 2.242 29.702 68.056

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 48.412 51.464 0.124 0.0
Baltimore 51.58 47.538 0.882 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0080 0.998 98.982 0.012
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.012 99.988

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.876 0.124 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.124 99.07 0.806 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.806 98.562 0.632
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.632 99.368

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 54.914 39.77 4.764 0.552
Oakland 41.45 44.878 10.69 2.982
San Diego 1.688 10.212 55.892 32.208
Kansas City 1.948 5.14 28.654 64.258

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 63.88 31.464 4.644 0.012
NY Giants 34.93 51.042 11.652 2.376
Philadelphia 1.134 13.728 64.818 20.32
Washington 0.056 3.766 18.886 77.292

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 63.658 36.342 0.0
Chicago 0.0 36.342 63.658 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 97.556 2.444 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 2.444 96.282 1.232 0.042
Carolina 0.0 0.408 60.16 39.432
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.866 38.608 60.526

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 55.334 44.508 0.158
Arizona 0.0 44.666 55.312 0.022
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.18 99.82

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 35.398 36.912 26.784 0.782 0.0 0.05 99.926
Baltimore 27.662 14.524 9.276 0.118 45.456 2.416 99.452
New England 20.63 26.574 47.884 4.202 0.032 0.362 99.684
Pittsburgh 16.298 21.642 10.444 0.028 51.234 0.302 99.948
Denver 0.012 0.31 4.09 50.502 0.09 5.512 60.516
Oakland 0.0 0.024 0.902 40.524 0.226 8.892 50.568
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.476 0.172 0.578 28.356 29.582
Tennessee 0.0 0.012 0.112 0.0 1.44 20.808 22.372
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.948 0.0 0.034 1.982
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.688 0.0080 0.75 2.446
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0020 0.0060 0.0 0.936 32.3 33.244
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.026 0.036 0.0 0.206 0.268
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.012
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 97.786 2.168 0.046 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Francisco 2.15 66.23 28.742 2.878 0.0 0.0 100.0
New Orleans 0.064 30.91 63.566 3.016 1.982 0.356 99.894
Dallas 0.0 0.61 5.52 57.75 1.276 3.388 68.544
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.012 34.918 0.1 1.246 36.276
Atlanta 0.0 0.082 2.114 0.248 39.4 26.544 68.388
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.448 36.45 64.898
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.31 27.21 54.52
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.134 0.01 0.15 1.294
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.906 2.596 3.502
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.556 1.976 2.532
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.056 0.01 0.074 0.14
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.012
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 06 15:58:54 EST 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 12

November 29th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.06 0.804 0.136 0.0
NY Jets 0.408 81.432 16.726 1.434
Buffalo 0.532 15.532 71.462 12.474
Miami 0.0 2.232 11.676 86.092

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 50.95 45.048 3.972 0.03
Baltimore 47.702 47.062 5.176 0.06
Cincinnati 1.342 7.88 90.656 0.122
Cleveland 0.0060 0.01 0.196 99.788

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.916 0.084 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.084 88.478 11.438 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 11.438 88.436 0.126
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.126 99.874

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 73.906 23.404 2.486 0.204
Denver 24.922 68.418 5.968 0.692
San Diego 0.852 5.342 66.874 26.932
Kansas City 0.32 2.836 24.672 72.172

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 76.786 18.528 4.626 0.06
NY Giants 20.404 53.626 21.098 4.872
Philadelphia 2.732 23.006 58.134 16.128
Washington 0.078 4.84 16.142 78.94

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 99.946 0.05 0.0040 0.0
Chicago 0.03 54.278 45.692 0.0
Detroit 0.024 45.672 54.304 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.356 4.63 0.014 0.0
Atlanta 4.626 92.182 3.17 0.022
Tampa Bay 0.018 3.014 71.364 25.604
Carolina 0.0 0.174 25.452 74.374

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.954 0.046 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.026 45.512 52.362 2.1
Seattle 0.02 53.828 41.63 4.522
St Louis 0.0 0.614 6.008 93.378

Generated: Tue Nov 29 22:34:57 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 40.93 35.304 21.01 2.672 0.0040 0.03 99.95
New England 25.188 24.384 45.976 3.512 0.074 0.458 99.592
Baltimore 19.256 15.436 11.588 1.422 44.41 5.478 97.59
Pittsburgh 14.276 23.4 12.782 0.492 44.698 3.714 99.362
Cincinnati 0.266 0.41 0.544 0.122 6.966 36.246 44.554
Oakland 0.076 0.886 5.818 67.126 0.622 6.41 80.938
Denver 0.0080 0.154 1.648 23.112 0.608 10.102 35.632
Buffalo 0.0 0.0060 0.368 0.158 0.31 4.006 4.848
NY Jets 0.0 0.0080 0.208 0.192 1.054 23.248 24.71
Tennessee 0.0 0.012 0.056 0.016 1.242 9.84 11.166
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.85 0.0080 0.39 1.25
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 0.0 0.022 0.342
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0040 0.032 0.042
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.018
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0060
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 94.334 5.304 0.288 0.02 0.05 0.0040 100.0
San Francisco 5.328 58.448 24.324 11.854 0.0040 0.02 99.978
New Orleans 0.242 27.15 50.502 17.462 1.454 1.536 98.346
Dallas 0.086 8.642 21.5 46.558 1.16 3.322 81.268
Atlanta 0.0 0.38 2.606 1.64 18.64 31.78 55.046
NY Giants 0.0 0.04 0.75 19.614 1.026 4.926 26.356
Chicago 0.0080 0.018 0.0040 0.0 48.602 28.516 77.148
Detroit 0.0020 0.018 0.0040 0.0 28.828 27.948 56.8
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0040 2.728 0.114 0.966 3.812
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.016 0.024 0.262 0.312
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.078 0.018 0.178 0.274
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.012 0.016 0.158 0.192
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.018 0.064 0.384 0.468
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 29 22:34:57 EST 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 11

November 23rd, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 94.136 5.206 0.644 0.014
NY Jets 1.394 57.54 35.77 5.296
Buffalo 4.436 34.82 52.122 8.622
Miami 0.034 2.434 11.464 86.068

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 63.196 33.27 3.446 0.088
Baltimore 34.736 55.704 8.96 0.6
Cincinnati 1.996 10.412 80.144 7.448
Cleveland 0.072 0.614 7.45 91.864

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.878 0.12 0.0020 0.0
Tennessee 0.12 85.578 14.302 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0020 14.302 85.472 0.224
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.224 99.776

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 74.736 18.564 6.124 0.576
San Diego 12.306 40.818 41.19 5.686
Denver 12.642 38.792 40.822 7.744
Kansas City 0.316 1.826 11.864 85.994

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 69.076 21.38 9.478 0.066
NY Giants 23.788 47.586 25.834 2.792
Philadelphia 7.102 29.196 57.166 6.536
Washington 0.034 1.838 7.522 90.606

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 95.324 3.67 1.006 0.0
Chicago 1.508 51.764 46.726 0.0020
Detroit 3.168 44.566 52.26 0.0060
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0080 99.992

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 91.968 7.95 0.082 0.0
Atlanta 7.948 85.99 5.912 0.15
Tampa Bay 0.084 5.656 69.55 24.71
Carolina 0.0 0.404 24.456 75.14

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.932 0.068 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.068 75.728 20.734 3.47
Arizona 0.0 20.464 60.168 19.368
St Louis 0.0 3.74 19.098 77.162

Generated: Wed Nov 23 13:45:37 EST 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 54.238 29.066 14.43 2.144 0.014 0.056 99.948
Pittsburgh 16.442 34.546 11.308 0.9 32.37 3.346 98.912
New England 16.946 21.122 51.38 4.688 1.024 2.962 98.122
Baltimore 11.826 12.434 9.316 1.16 48.65 10.002 93.388
Oakland 0.196 1.598 7.21 65.732 0.498 3.58 78.814
Cincinnati 0.314 0.69 0.85 0.142 8.744 30.41 41.15
Buffalo 0.028 0.37 3.166 0.872 2.258 10.434 17.128
Denver 0.0060 0.102 1.168 11.366 0.504 4.618 17.764
San Diego 0.0 0.0080 0.25 12.048 0.304 2.58 15.19
NY Jets 0.0 0.032 0.81 0.552 2.3 19.736 23.43
Tennessee 0.0020 0.024 0.07 0.024 3.114 11.262 14.496
Cleveland 0.0020 0.0080 0.026 0.036 0.208 0.674 0.954
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.316 0.0 0.02 0.336
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.018 0.0020 0.108 0.144
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.212 0.224
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 73.816 20.702 0.744 0.062 3.648 0.982 99.954
San Francisco 24.424 59.682 11.846 3.98 0.0080 0.018 99.958
New Orleans 0.43 10.062 48.638 32.838 0.75 1.58 94.298
Dallas 0.184 6.174 26.348 36.37 0.88 4.208 74.164
Detroit 0.71 1.816 0.574 0.068 37.164 29.67 70.002
Chicago 0.412 0.816 0.25 0.03 49.378 35.474 86.36
NY Giants 0.022 0.53 7.65 15.586 1.524 6.404 31.716
Atlanta 0.0020 0.216 3.526 4.204 6.266 19.12 33.334
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0020 0.366 6.734 0.154 1.488 8.744
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.04 0.214 0.862 1.144
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.028 0.056 0.0080 0.1 0.192
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.032 0.0040 0.062 0.1
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.032 0.034
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 23 13:45:37 EST 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 10

November 17th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 86.794 11.3 1.904 0.0020
NY Jets 4.358 52.736 41.744 1.162
Buffalo 8.84 35.638 53.048 2.474
Miami 0.0080 0.326 3.304 96.362

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 66.866 29.91 3.198 0.026
Baltimore 29.648 51.804 17.87 0.678
Cincinnati 3.478 18.05 74.654 3.818
Cleveland 0.0080 0.236 4.278 95.478

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.276 0.712 0.012 0.0
Tennessee 0.684 84.338 14.978 0.0
Jacksonville 0.04 14.95 84.904 0.106
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.106 99.894

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 75.298 17.888 5.738 1.076
San Diego 15.924 48.826 28.742 6.508
Denver 7.832 28.874 46.28 17.014
Kansas City 0.946 4.412 19.24 75.402

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 57.586 33.814 7.848 0.752
NY Giants 39.064 48.278 10.994 1.664
Philadelphia 3.034 15.512 64.578 16.876
Washington 0.316 2.396 16.58 80.708

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 96.842 2.644 0.514 0.0
Chicago 0.94 50.536 48.482 0.042
Detroit 2.218 46.812 50.876 0.094
Minnesota 0.0 0.0080 0.128 99.864

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.594 4.344 0.062 0.0
Atlanta 4.298 83.032 11.236 1.434
Tampa Bay 0.09 9.42 56.12 34.37
Carolina 0.018 3.204 32.582 64.196

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.734 0.256 0.01 0.0
Seattle 0.068 45.9 31.434 22.598
Arizona 0.176 34.784 40.876 24.164
St Louis 0.022 19.06 27.68 53.238

Generated: Thu Nov 17 01:04:24 EST 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 52.71 28.894 15.678 1.994 0.15 0.24 99.666
Pittsburgh 18.446 34.498 13.07 0.852 27.042 4.232 98.14
New England 17.204 21.37 45.34 2.88 3.144 5.88 95.818
Baltimore 10.2 10.308 8.116 1.024 37.298 15.688 82.634
Cincinnati 0.702 1.13 1.446 0.2 12.678 18.994 35.15
Buffalo 0.436 1.588 5.828 0.988 5.072 12.912 26.824
Oakland 0.198 1.362 6.424 67.314 0.254 1.304 76.856
NY Jets 0.038 0.588 2.866 0.866 6.896 23.64 34.894
Tennessee 0.062 0.188 0.34 0.094 6.926 14.046 21.656
San Diego 0.0 0.046 0.396 15.482 0.216 1.294 17.434
Denver 0.0040 0.028 0.458 7.342 0.168 1.002 9.002
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.942 0.0 0.016 0.962
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.018 0.124 0.6 0.764
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0020 0.032 0.134 0.174
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0020 0.0 0.018 0.026
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 81.036 14.564 1.132 0.11 2.586 0.522 99.95
San Francisco 16.69 57.676 17.322 8.046 0.026 0.058 99.818
New Orleans 0.622 14.844 42.846 37.282 0.482 0.828 96.904
Dallas 0.266 8.544 22.734 26.042 2.926 9.16 69.672
NY Giants 0.368 2.804 13.518 22.374 4.75 11.092 54.906
Detroit 0.686 1.036 0.406 0.09 37.78 27.928 67.926
Chicago 0.332 0.39 0.19 0.028 45.89 33.582 80.412
Atlanta 0.0 0.122 1.562 2.614 4.98 13.824 23.102
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0060 0.192 2.836 0.22 1.416 4.67
Arizona 0.0 0.014 0.032 0.13 0.04 0.38 0.596
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.282 0.04 0.264 0.62
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.052 0.246 0.718 1.032
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.074 0.02 0.182 0.292
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.0060 0.014 0.042
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.0040 0.02 0.042
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.012 0.016

Generated: Thu Nov 17 01:04:24 EST 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9

November 10th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 56.084 29.244 14.582 0.09
NY Jets 23.06 37.584 38.632 0.724
Buffalo 20.844 33.02 45.012 1.124
Miami 0.012 0.152 1.774 98.062

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 60.692 29.398 9.334 0.576
Pittsburgh 32.142 52.652 14.48 0.726
Cincinnati 7.054 17.25 69.04 6.656
Cleveland 0.112 0.7 7.146 92.042

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 98.576 1.37 0.054 0.0
Tennessee 1.208 71.792 26.822 0.178
Jacksonville 0.216 26.758 69.938 3.088
Indianapolis 0.0 0.08 3.186 96.734

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 65.116 22.496 9.894 2.494
Oakland 20.764 30.816 30.944 17.476
Kansas City 9.822 30.298 31.974 27.906
Denver 4.298 16.39 27.188 52.124

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 54.67 28.466 13.628 3.236
Dallas 31.236 35.12 26.548 7.096
Philadelphia 12.826 31.112 42.83 13.232
Washington 1.268 5.302 16.994 76.436

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 90.46 8.742 0.798 0.0
Detroit 8.542 64.596 26.596 0.266
Chicago 0.998 26.606 71.22 1.176
Minnesota 0.0 0.056 1.386 98.558

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 80.494 17.602 1.772 0.132
Atlanta 18.194 61.578 16.67 3.558
Tampa Bay 0.988 14.038 49.33 35.644
Carolina 0.324 6.782 32.228 60.666

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.564 0.414 0.022 0.0
Seattle 0.114 38.122 31.894 29.87
Arizona 0.194 29.308 35.848 34.65
St Louis 0.128 32.156 32.236 35.48

Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 36.324 15.734 7.54 1.094 22.448 8.842 91.982
Houston 31.896 36.256 26.128 4.296 0.084 0.316 98.976
Pittsburgh 14.1 12.982 4.582 0.478 45.746 12.302 90.19
New England 10.168 18.316 25.64 1.96 6.106 16.382 78.572
Buffalo 2.366 5.6 10.76 2.118 5.774 15.372 41.99
Cincinnati 2.494 2.572 1.748 0.24 12.342 19.146 38.542
NY Jets 1.902 5.774 13.514 1.87 5.808 19.422 48.29
San Diego 0.622 2.13 6.518 55.846 0.104 0.646 65.866
Tennessee 0.076 0.236 0.646 0.25 1.188 4.87 7.266
Oakland 0.04 0.274 1.968 18.482 0.108 0.906 21.778
Kansas City 0.012 0.064 0.464 9.282 0.096 0.548 10.466
Denver 0.0 0.03 0.288 3.98 0.026 0.398 4.722
Cleveland 0.0 0.022 0.056 0.034 0.13 0.414 0.656
Jacksonville 0.0 0.01 0.146 0.06 0.04 0.426 0.682
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.022
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 77.538 11.534 1.234 0.154 8.552 0.826 99.838
San Francisco 13.604 47.414 23.176 15.37 0.0040 0.044 99.612
Detroit 4.368 3.058 0.924 0.192 53.182 18.752 80.476
NY Giants 2.672 13.13 18.438 20.43 3.316 8.65 66.636
New Orleans 1.064 15.67 32.002 31.758 2.036 3.918 86.448
Dallas 0.286 6.314 12.4 12.236 2.632 12.152 46.02
Chicago 0.424 0.386 0.172 0.016 23.266 35.246 59.51
Atlanta 0.044 2.06 7.806 8.284 5.644 12.448 36.286
Philadelphia 0.0 0.388 3.324 9.114 1.064 5.516 19.406
Washington 0.0 0.032 0.28 0.956 0.116 0.972 2.356
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.01 0.208 0.77 0.08 0.866 1.934
Arizona 0.0 0.0040 0.014 0.176 0.012 0.064 0.27
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0080 0.316 0.038 0.19 0.552
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.1 0.038 0.192 0.344
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.128 0.0 0.016 0.144
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.148 0.168

Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8

November 1st, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats. Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 50.694 38.878 10.4 0.028
Buffalo 41.62 40.338 17.842 0.2
NY Jets 7.684 20.728 70.226 1.362
Miami 0.0020 0.056 1.532 98.41

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 56.542 33.24 9.442 0.776
Baltimore 35.362 44.846 17.688 2.104
Cincinnati 7.846 20.272 62.27 9.612
Cleveland 0.25 1.642 10.6 87.508

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 92.43 7.164 0.406 0.0
Tennessee 7.006 75.268 17.322 0.404
Jacksonville 0.564 17.208 73.58 8.648
Indianapolis 0.0 0.36 8.692 90.948

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 47.098 30.292 19.658 2.952
Oakland 28.96 29.448 34.368 7.224
Kansas City 22.668 35.502 31.652 10.178
Denver 1.274 4.758 14.322 79.646

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 42.012 27.654 20.222 10.112
Philadelphia 25.348 32.674 28.088 13.89
Dallas 27.684 28.5 28.378 15.438
Washington 4.956 11.172 23.312 60.56

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 86.262 12.622 1.112 0.0040
Detroit 12.832 68.734 18.09 0.344
Chicago 0.906 18.476 75.938 4.68
Minnesota 0.0 0.168 4.86 94.972

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 85.768 11.636 2.298 0.298
Atlanta 10.368 49.264 29.484 10.884
Tampa Bay 3.268 27.464 40.112 29.156
Carolina 0.596 11.636 28.106 59.662

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 96.896 2.776 0.288 0.04
St Louis 1.674 42.89 30.744 24.692
Seattle 0.854 34.848 37.714 26.584
Arizona 0.576 19.486 31.254 48.684

Generated: Tue Nov 01 19:57:05 EDT 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 28.866 16.536 9.602 1.538 23.616 9.548 89.706
Houston 22.78 27.012 30.208 12.43 0.962 1.572 94.964
Baltimore 15.59 11.668 6.046 2.058 23.34 16.418 75.12
New England 14.018 18.666 15.234 2.776 14.396 15.696 80.786
Buffalo 12.722 13.564 11.914 3.42 14.366 15.018 71.004
Cincinnati 2.572 2.492 2.094 0.688 9.354 11.982 29.182
San Diego 1.074 3.158 8.462 34.404 0.908 2.398 50.404
NY Jets 0.676 2.296 3.488 1.224 4.218 9.584 21.486
Tennessee 0.678 1.694 2.876 1.758 6.45 10.972 24.428
Oakland 0.496 1.704 6.228 20.532 0.87 2.874 32.704
Kansas City 0.516 1.124 3.374 17.654 1.17 2.678 26.516
Cleveland 0.01 0.044 0.104 0.092 0.206 0.618 1.074
Denver 0.0020 0.018 0.1 1.154 0.04 0.156 1.47
Jacksonville 0.0 0.024 0.268 0.272 0.104 0.48 1.148
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0080
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 75.078 9.398 1.54 0.246 11.846 1.448 99.556
San Francisco 10.9 37.482 25.76 22.754 0.074 0.256 97.226
Detroit 6.944 4.008 1.498 0.382 54.08 15.928 82.84
New Orleans 3.044 23.298 30.136 29.29 1.258 2.556 89.582
NY Giants 2.906 11.108 14.022 13.976 5.428 11.742 59.182
Dallas 0.536 7.434 10.66 9.054 3.182 14.156 45.022
Philadelphia 0.17 4.056 9.25 11.872 5.74 13.9 44.988
Chicago 0.318 0.346 0.168 0.074 12.968 22.106 35.98
Atlanta 0.062 1.704 4.04 4.562 3.47 9.232 23.07
Washington 0.032 0.978 1.82 2.126 1.236 4.806 10.998
Tampa Bay 0.01 0.142 0.71 2.406 0.35 1.946 5.564
Seattle 0.0 0.03 0.126 0.698 0.172 0.804 1.83
St Louis 0.0 0.0060 0.166 1.502 0.056 0.3 2.03
Arizona 0.0 0.0080 0.058 0.51 0.026 0.162 0.764
Carolina 0.0 0.0020 0.046 0.548 0.072 0.296 0.964
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.042 0.362 0.404

Generated: Tue Nov 01 19:57:05 EDT 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 7

October 25th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 65.536 26.206 8.164 0.094
Buffalo 22.962 41.786 33.688 1.564
NY Jets 11.468 31.648 54.58 2.304
Miami 0.034 0.36 3.568 96.038

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 47.0 31.704 17.582 3.714
Pittsburgh 33.412 37.516 23.676 5.396
Cincinnati 18.328 26.552 44.54 10.58
Cleveland 1.26 4.228 14.202 80.31

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 88.17 10.118 1.684 0.028
Tennessee 8.658 62.656 26.004 2.682
Jacksonville 3.142 25.362 59.914 11.582
Indianapolis 0.03 1.864 12.398 85.708

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 58.336 27.224 11.714 2.726
Oakland 29.984 38.14 23.832 8.044
Kansas City 9.046 24.016 37.532 29.406
Denver 2.634 10.62 26.922 59.824

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 47.668 26.578 16.49 9.264
NY Giants 29.622 31.084 24.258 15.036
Washington 13.412 24.08 30.518 31.99
Philadelphia 9.298 18.258 28.734 43.71

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 89.85 9.124 1.022 0.0040
Detroit 8.784 62.88 27.644 0.692
Chicago 1.366 27.812 67.89 2.932
Minnesota 0.0 0.184 3.444 96.372

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.348 7.914 1.484 0.254
Atlanta 6.382 43.096 31.678 18.844
Tampa Bay 2.196 27.556 34.484 35.764
Carolina 1.074 21.434 32.354 45.138

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.068 7.422 1.292 0.218
Arizona 5.366 39.18 33.134 22.32
Seattle 2.446 33.864 36.462 27.228
St Louis 1.12 19.534 29.112 50.234

Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 32.852 17.784 10.898 4.002 13.296 8.266 87.098
Houston 18.784 22.97 24.738 21.678 1.416 1.902 91.488
Baltimore 15.52 15.612 10.116 5.752 14.368 11.658 73.026
Pittsburgh 10.052 10.0 8.572 4.788 18.536 13.782 65.73
Buffalo 7.212 7.008 5.37 3.372 16.368 13.912 53.242
San Diego 5.836 9.626 15.15 27.724 2.294 3.634 64.264
Cincinnati 4.622 5.638 4.902 3.166 11.04 12.228 41.596
NY Jets 2.064 3.416 3.714 2.274 9.438 12.156 33.062
Oakland 1.636 4.528 9.67 14.15 3.87 6.95 40.804
Tennessee 0.89 1.962 2.832 2.974 6.218 8.714 23.59
Kansas City 0.376 0.858 2.05 5.762 1.592 2.86 13.498
Cleveland 0.062 0.208 0.436 0.554 0.6 1.334 3.194
Denver 0.054 0.186 0.58 1.814 0.606 1.41 4.65
Jacksonville 0.04 0.204 0.966 1.932 0.356 1.172 4.67
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.028 0.0020 0.022 0.058
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.03

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 72.994 12.682 3.414 0.76 8.228 1.336 99.414
New Orleans 9.818 35.39 27.222 17.918 1.708 1.988 94.044
San Francisco 7.996 22.906 25.716 34.45 0.58 1.022 92.67
Detroit 3.8 2.854 1.572 0.558 41.548 17.5 67.832
Dallas 2.504 13.52 17.896 13.748 5.71 11.744 65.122
NY Giants 2.12 6.606 10.568 10.328 8.182 12.272 50.076
Washington 0.242 2.844 5.73 4.596 5.146 10.06 28.618
Chicago 0.368 0.528 0.328 0.142 17.274 19.16 37.8
Atlanta 0.082 1.27 2.596 2.434 5.514 9.492 21.388
Philadelphia 0.048 0.916 2.79 5.544 3.308 7.436 20.042
Tampa Bay 0.018 0.216 0.62 1.342 0.924 2.976 6.096
Arizona 0.0060 0.13 0.738 4.492 0.306 1.076 6.748
Seattle 0.0040 0.078 0.45 1.914 0.528 1.378 4.352
Carolina 0.0 0.058 0.306 0.71 0.972 2.246 4.292
St Louis 0.0 0.0020 0.054 1.064 0.014 0.114 1.248
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.058 0.2 0.258

Generated: Tue Oct 25 19:42:39 EDT 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 6

October 18th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 68.176 25.366 6.332 0.126
Buffalo 22.938 45.038 29.898 2.126
NY Jets 8.818 28.768 57.668 4.746
Miami 0.068 0.828 6.102 93.002

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 64.288 27.36 7.496 0.856
Pittsburgh 28.486 50.124 18.666 2.724
Cincinnati 6.808 20.11 60.41 12.672
Cleveland 0.418 2.406 13.428 83.748

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 52.312 40.978 6.404 0.306
Tennessee 45.67 47.324 6.468 0.538
Jacksonville 1.95 10.536 67.574 19.94
Indianapolis 0.068 1.162 19.554 79.216

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 53.532 36.814 8.164 1.49
Oakland 42.322 43.276 11.724 2.678
Denver 1.84 9.88 42.932 45.348
Kansas City 2.306 10.03 37.18 50.484

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 44.53 26.414 18.258 10.798
NY Giants 26.934 30.094 26.826 16.146
Washington 20.304 27.536 28.35 23.81
Philadelphia 8.232 15.956 26.566 49.246

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 71.188 26.568 2.168 0.076
Detroit 27.92 62.774 8.966 0.34
Chicago 0.868 10.236 78.692 10.204
Minnesota 0.024 0.422 10.174 89.38

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 83.728 12.59 3.11 0.572
Tampa Bay 9.472 47.374 28.362 14.792
Atlanta 5.584 26.262 42.152 26.002
Carolina 1.216 13.774 26.376 58.634

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.578 6.978 1.238 0.206
Seattle 3.974 43.018 32.79 20.218
St Louis 2.078 26.526 31.686 39.71
Arizona 2.37 23.478 34.286 39.866

Generated: Tue Oct 18 23:10:07 EDT 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 35.614 17.354 8.062 3.258 17.828 7.966 90.082
New England 23.042 23.868 14.222 7.044 7.954 9.098 85.228
Pittsburgh 14.636 7.706 4.244 1.9 31.316 14.692 74.494
San Diego 6.544 10.596 15.936 20.456 3.626 5.912 63.07
Tennessee 5.51 10.02 14.164 15.976 4.838 8.564 59.072
Oakland 4.292 8.608 14.85 14.572 5.558 8.962 56.842
Buffalo 4.358 7.528 6.444 4.608 10.064 13.784 46.786
Houston 3.276 9.178 15.904 23.954 3.346 6.352 62.01
Cincinnati 2.004 2.178 1.664 0.962 9.774 12.102 28.684
NY Jets 0.61 2.466 3.044 2.698 4.234 8.584 21.636
Kansas City 0.034 0.208 0.506 1.558 0.466 1.032 3.804
Cleveland 0.042 0.088 0.138 0.15 0.462 1.092 1.972
Denver 0.03 0.142 0.46 1.208 0.446 1.374 3.66
Jacksonville 0.0080 0.056 0.354 1.532 0.076 0.418 2.444
Miami 0.0 0.0040 0.0080 0.056 0.012 0.062 0.142
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.068 0.0 0.0060 0.074

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 56.274 11.126 3.064 0.724 22.574 3.888 97.65
Detroit 16.616 7.348 2.998 0.958 47.866 11.99 87.776
San Francisco 10.514 23.06 26.872 31.132 0.368 0.95 92.896
New Orleans 8.022 23.252 26.41 26.044 1.466 2.882 88.076
Dallas 3.658 16.414 15.426 9.032 4.046 15.28 63.856
NY Giants 2.718 7.94 9.144 7.132 6.564 15.092 48.59
Washington 1.612 7.308 7.064 4.32 6.06 14.92 41.284
Tampa Bay 0.178 1.116 2.576 5.602 1.56 6.374 17.406
Chicago 0.226 0.268 0.252 0.122 5.712 12.894 19.474
Philadelphia 0.094 1.196 2.886 4.056 1.786 8.106 18.124
Atlanta 0.06 0.574 1.728 3.222 1.158 3.658 10.4
Seattle 0.022 0.298 0.796 2.858 0.428 2.044 6.446
Arizona 0.0 0.046 0.31 2.014 0.062 0.362 2.794
St Louis 0.0020 0.024 0.274 1.778 0.042 0.29 2.41
Carolina 0.0 0.026 0.196 0.994 0.168 0.746 2.13
Minnesota 0.0040 0.0040 0.0040 0.012 0.14 0.524 0.688

Generated: Tue Oct 18 23:10:07 EDT 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 5

October 13th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 54.072 35.19 10.25 0.488
Buffalo 36.736 40.428 20.756 2.08
NY Jets 8.898 22.46 57.228 11.414
Miami 0.294 1.922 11.766 86.018

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 41.136 37.34 17.102 4.422
Baltimore 44.812 33.838 16.72 4.63
Cincinnati 12.172 23.082 46.924 17.822
Cleveland 1.88 5.74 19.254 73.126

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 64.264 30.53 4.948 0.258
Tennessee 33.144 55.536 10.254 1.066
Jacksonville 2.474 12.098 65.204 20.224
Indianapolis 0.118 1.836 19.594 78.452

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 60.188 31.714 6.94 1.158
Oakland 35.218 46.078 14.778 3.926
Kansas City 2.94 13.206 41.008 42.846
Denver 1.654 9.002 37.274 52.07

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 60.804 25.628 10.56 3.008
Washington 26.348 41.504 22.858 9.29
NY Giants 10.272 24.424 44.93 20.374
Philadelphia 2.576 8.444 21.652 67.328

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 58.35 39.686 1.806 0.158
Detroit 41.288 55.442 3.05 0.22
Chicago 0.262 3.398 61.262 35.078
Minnesota 0.1 1.474 33.882 64.544

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 96.356 3.186 0.402 0.056
Carolina 1.566 45.968 32.076 20.39
Tampa Bay 1.652 36.432 39.086 22.83
Atlanta 0.426 14.414 28.436 56.724

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 88.186 9.254 2.124 0.436
Seattle 5.558 43.282 32.5 18.66
Arizona 4.29 28.886 37.068 29.756
St Louis 1.966 18.578 28.308 51.148

Generated: Tue Oct 11 18:10:29 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 19.422 15.642 11.874 7.134 13.718 10.41 78.2
Baltimore 15.984 12.268 9.862 6.698 13.858 11.4 70.07
Houston 15.412 16.372 16.102 16.378 6.05 6.516 76.83
Pittsburgh 14.5 11.37 9.276 5.99 18.318 11.816 71.27
San Diego 10.318 12.402 15.252 22.216 3.874 5.204 69.266
Buffalo 9.992 10.276 9.08 7.388 12.494 11.336 60.566
Tennessee 6.216 8.53 9.506 8.892 10.9 11.464 55.508
Oakland 4.076 6.796 10.358 13.988 5.864 8.628 49.71
Cincinnati 2.71 3.262 3.53 2.67 8.114 9.974 30.26
NY Jets 0.942 2.06 2.846 3.05 3.86 6.84 19.598
Cleveland 0.188 0.382 0.604 0.706 1.164 2.322 5.366
Jacksonville 0.106 0.242 0.608 1.518 0.53 1.31 4.314
Kansas City 0.094 0.256 0.66 1.93 0.716 1.416 5.072
Denver 0.04 0.128 0.364 1.122 0.466 1.148 3.268
Miami 0.0 0.01 0.056 0.228 0.058 0.168 0.52
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0040 0.022 0.092 0.016 0.048 0.182

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 37.972 13.63 5.39 1.358 31.134 7.0 96.484
New Orleans 24.136 32.92 26.348 12.952 0.282 0.812 97.45
Detroit 23.39 12.146 4.414 1.338 44.622 8.826 94.736
Dallas 6.588 19.394 25.156 9.666 5.128 16.72 82.652
San Francisco 4.432 10.578 20.564 52.612 0.154 0.962 89.302
Washington 2.76 8.31 10.378 4.9 9.374 24.582 60.304
NY Giants 0.618 2.196 4.368 3.09 4.466 15.26 29.998
Tampa Bay 0.032 0.194 0.48 0.946 0.574 3.446 5.672
Philadelphia 0.01 0.222 0.896 1.448 0.542 5.05 8.168
Chicago 0.028 0.066 0.118 0.05 1.578 6.324 8.164
Carolina 0.014 0.144 0.564 0.844 0.99 4.26 6.816
Seattle 0.012 0.09 0.682 4.774 0.296 2.404 8.258
Atlanta 0.0040 0.044 0.146 0.232 0.192 1.086 1.704
Arizona 0.0 0.026 0.332 3.932 0.066 0.676 5.032
Minnesota 0.0040 0.028 0.042 0.026 0.58 2.41 3.09
St Louis 0.0 0.012 0.122 1.832 0.022 0.182 2.17

Generated: Tue Oct 11 18:10:29 EDT 2011

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2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 4

October 4th, 2011

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 48.962 32.318 17.76 0.96
Buffalo 30.766 36.566 29.38 3.288
NY Jets 19.996 29.568 44.116 6.32
Miami 0.276 1.548 8.744 89.432

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 61.188 24.962 10.444 3.406
Pittsburgh 21.718 38.122 26.772 13.388
Cincinnati 13.826 26.734 38.172 21.268
Cleveland 3.268 10.182 24.612 61.938

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 54.498 39.244 5.786 0.472
Tennessee 43.43 48.288 7.228 1.054
Jacksonville 1.8 9.62 58.936 29.644
Indianapolis 0.272 2.848 28.05 68.83

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 50.012 33.246 13.14 3.602
San Diego 38.942 36.962 19.254 4.842
Denver 8.99 22.22 42.852 25.938
Kansas City 2.056 7.572 24.754 65.618

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 48.21 29.35 18.234 4.206
Washington 29.126 35.438 27.352 8.084
NY Giants 21.046 30.052 39.65 9.252
Philadelphia 1.618 5.16 14.764 78.458

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 55.412 40.94 3.5 0.148
Detroit 43.288 49.936 6.624 0.152
Chicago 1.278 8.674 75.742 14.306
Minnesota 0.022 0.45 14.134 85.394

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 90.19 8.14 1.426 0.244
Tampa Bay 6.118 48.564 31.476 13.842
Carolina 2.812 30.112 37.416 29.66
Atlanta 0.88 13.184 29.682 56.254

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 72.758 20.818 5.196 1.228
Arizona 20.94 46.7 22.594 9.766
Seattle 3.364 17.956 39.912 38.768
St Louis 2.938 14.526 32.298 50.238

Generated: Tue Oct 04 17:20:56 EDT 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 23.164 15.398 10.53 5.406 16.162 9.664 80.324
Baltimore 19.678 17.674 15.302 8.534 8.194 8.228 77.61
Tennessee 18.3 12.218 8.834 4.078 19.666 11.71 74.806
New England 15.216 15.81 12.676 5.26 11.768 10.73 71.46
Buffalo 6.928 9.312 9.146 5.38 10.398 11.568 52.732
Pittsburgh 4.616 6.382 6.492 4.228 11.75 11.752 45.22
Oakland 3.378 6.898 12.176 27.56 2.148 4.148 56.308
San Diego 3.024 5.496 9.538 20.884 2.522 4.376 45.84
NY Jets 2.472 5.12 6.726 5.678 6.132 9.696 35.824
Cincinnati 2.532 3.734 4.342 3.218 6.864 8.806 29.496
Cleveland 0.278 0.658 1.122 1.21 1.55 3.166 7.984
Denver 0.214 0.808 2.08 5.888 1.04 2.536 12.566
Jacksonville 0.174 0.39 0.596 0.64 1.422 2.624 5.846
Kansas City 0.014 0.06 0.27 1.712 0.134 0.4 2.59
Indianapolis 0.01 0.034 0.072 0.156 0.212 0.42 0.904
Miami 0.0020 0.0080 0.098 0.168 0.038 0.176 0.49

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 34.972 13.414 6.028 0.998 26.78 9.592 91.784
Detroit 25.778 11.654 4.912 0.944 36.572 10.434 90.294
New Orleans 21.352 29.864 29.736 9.238 0.996 1.89 93.076
Dallas 6.832 18.682 18.764 3.932 7.584 16.928 72.722
Washington 5.138 11.408 10.24 2.34 11.172 20.084 60.382
NY Giants 3.452 6.882 8.262 2.45 9.364 18.256 48.666
San Francisco 1.822 5.268 13.624 52.044 0.24 0.98 73.978
Tampa Bay 0.278 1.264 2.816 1.76 1.958 6.192 14.268
Chicago 0.224 0.404 0.472 0.178 3.46 7.324 12.062
Arizona 0.044 0.5 2.33 18.066 0.232 1.348 22.52
Carolina 0.044 0.324 1.294 1.15 0.61 2.244 5.666
Philadelphia 0.034 0.238 0.748 0.598 0.552 2.868 5.038
Atlanta 0.024 0.07 0.444 0.342 0.37 1.186 2.436
Seattle 0.0040 0.016 0.16 3.184 0.018 0.254 3.636
St Louis 0.0020 0.012 0.16 2.764 0.0080 0.07 3.016
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.012 0.084 0.35 0.456

Generated: Tue Oct 04 17:20:56 EDT 2011

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