2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 11

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 47.732 41.792 10.468 0.0080
New England 48.324 40.264 11.408 0.0040
Miami 3.944 17.94 77.784 0.332
Buffalo 0.0 0.0040 0.34 99.656

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 70.066 29.882 0.052 0.0
Baltimore 29.932 69.41 0.656 0.0020
Cleveland 0.0020 0.692 80.91 18.396
Cincinnati 0.0 0.016 18.382 81.602

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 43.178 32.154 18.89 5.778
Tennessee 42.526 31.418 16.454 9.602
Jacksonville 10.618 24.994 37.724 26.664
Houston 3.678 11.434 26.932 57.956

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 68.088 29.444 2.32 0.148
Kansas City 30.826 62.644 5.912 0.618
Oakland 0.948 6.328 72.03 20.694
Denver 0.138 1.584 19.738 78.54

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 70.874 26.466 2.354 0.306
NY Giants 26.872 56.476 15.242 1.41
Washington 2.108 15.714 63.674 18.504
Dallas 0.146 1.344 18.73 79.78

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 80.676 19.31 0.014 0.0
Chicago 19.324 78.44 2.236 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 2.242 87.784 9.974
Detroit 0.0 0.0080 9.966 90.026

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 68.174 22.998 8.828 0.0
New Orleans 20.914 44.718 34.368 0.0
Tampa Bay 10.912 32.284 56.804 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 66.414 22.834 9.634 1.118
San Francisco 16.918 36.726 27.74 18.616
St Louis 14.238 24.3 32.374 29.088
Arizona 2.43 16.14 30.252 51.178

Generated: Wed Nov 24 01:14:22 EST 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 37.39 26.858 5.324 0.494 16.21 10.146 96.422
New England 31.648 15.218 1.346 0.112 29.7 11.418 89.442
NY Jets 17.022 24.332 5.834 0.544 17.96 20.466 86.158
Baltimore 11.424 12.32 5.474 0.714 26.54 24.256 80.728
San Diego 1.534 13.446 40.388 12.72 1.896 7.44 77.424
Indianapolis 0.488 2.66 14.596 25.434 0.266 2.192 45.636
Kansas City 0.364 2.694 17.4 10.368 2.03 8.344 41.2
Miami 0.082 1.83 1.756 0.276 5.044 13.286 22.274
Tennessee 0.02 0.33 6.328 35.848 0.018 0.338 42.882
Jacksonville 0.026 0.274 1.098 9.22 0.254 1.334 12.206
Houston 0.0 0.026 0.17 3.482 0.052 0.396 4.126
Oakland 0.0020 0.012 0.262 0.672 0.03 0.296 1.274
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.114 0.0 0.0080 0.146
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0 0.08 0.082
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 38.778 24.264 17.178 0.456 7.808 5.07 93.554
Atlanta 26.63 22.612 18.556 0.376 12.416 9.294 89.884
Philadelphia 16.356 24.076 29.936 0.506 6.896 7.516 85.286
New Orleans 6.62 9.14 5.134 0.02 29.742 20.674 71.33
NY Giants 5.19 8.37 13.248 0.064 12.974 17.956 57.802
Tampa Bay 3.406 4.348 3.114 0.044 20.278 21.37 52.56
Chicago 2.952 6.726 9.388 0.258 8.544 14.32 42.188
Seattle 0.03 0.23 1.54 64.614 0.0 0.0040 66.418
Washington 0.038 0.234 1.736 0.1 1.32 3.468 6.896
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.012 16.906 0.0 0.0 16.918
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.034 14.204 0.0 0.0040 14.242
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.43 0.0 0.0020 2.432
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.124 0.022 0.012 0.134 0.292
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.188 0.198
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 24 01:14:22 EST 2010

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