2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 56.084 29.244 14.582 0.09
NY Jets 23.06 37.584 38.632 0.724
Buffalo 20.844 33.02 45.012 1.124
Miami 0.012 0.152 1.774 98.062

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 60.692 29.398 9.334 0.576
Pittsburgh 32.142 52.652 14.48 0.726
Cincinnati 7.054 17.25 69.04 6.656
Cleveland 0.112 0.7 7.146 92.042

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 98.576 1.37 0.054 0.0
Tennessee 1.208 71.792 26.822 0.178
Jacksonville 0.216 26.758 69.938 3.088
Indianapolis 0.0 0.08 3.186 96.734

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 65.116 22.496 9.894 2.494
Oakland 20.764 30.816 30.944 17.476
Kansas City 9.822 30.298 31.974 27.906
Denver 4.298 16.39 27.188 52.124

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 54.67 28.466 13.628 3.236
Dallas 31.236 35.12 26.548 7.096
Philadelphia 12.826 31.112 42.83 13.232
Washington 1.268 5.302 16.994 76.436

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 90.46 8.742 0.798 0.0
Detroit 8.542 64.596 26.596 0.266
Chicago 0.998 26.606 71.22 1.176
Minnesota 0.0 0.056 1.386 98.558

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 80.494 17.602 1.772 0.132
Atlanta 18.194 61.578 16.67 3.558
Tampa Bay 0.988 14.038 49.33 35.644
Carolina 0.324 6.782 32.228 60.666

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.564 0.414 0.022 0.0
Seattle 0.114 38.122 31.894 29.87
Arizona 0.194 29.308 35.848 34.65
St Louis 0.128 32.156 32.236 35.48

Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Baltimore 36.324 15.734 7.54 1.094 22.448 8.842 91.982
Houston 31.896 36.256 26.128 4.296 0.084 0.316 98.976
Pittsburgh 14.1 12.982 4.582 0.478 45.746 12.302 90.19
New England 10.168 18.316 25.64 1.96 6.106 16.382 78.572
Buffalo 2.366 5.6 10.76 2.118 5.774 15.372 41.99
Cincinnati 2.494 2.572 1.748 0.24 12.342 19.146 38.542
NY Jets 1.902 5.774 13.514 1.87 5.808 19.422 48.29
San Diego 0.622 2.13 6.518 55.846 0.104 0.646 65.866
Tennessee 0.076 0.236 0.646 0.25 1.188 4.87 7.266
Oakland 0.04 0.274 1.968 18.482 0.108 0.906 21.778
Kansas City 0.012 0.064 0.464 9.282 0.096 0.548 10.466
Denver 0.0 0.03 0.288 3.98 0.026 0.398 4.722
Cleveland 0.0 0.022 0.056 0.034 0.13 0.414 0.656
Jacksonville 0.0 0.01 0.146 0.06 0.04 0.426 0.682
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.022
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 77.538 11.534 1.234 0.154 8.552 0.826 99.838
San Francisco 13.604 47.414 23.176 15.37 0.0040 0.044 99.612
Detroit 4.368 3.058 0.924 0.192 53.182 18.752 80.476
NY Giants 2.672 13.13 18.438 20.43 3.316 8.65 66.636
New Orleans 1.064 15.67 32.002 31.758 2.036 3.918 86.448
Dallas 0.286 6.314 12.4 12.236 2.632 12.152 46.02
Chicago 0.424 0.386 0.172 0.016 23.266 35.246 59.51
Atlanta 0.044 2.06 7.806 8.284 5.644 12.448 36.286
Philadelphia 0.0 0.388 3.324 9.114 1.064 5.516 19.406
Washington 0.0 0.032 0.28 0.956 0.116 0.972 2.356
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.01 0.208 0.77 0.08 0.866 1.934
Arizona 0.0 0.0040 0.014 0.176 0.012 0.064 0.27
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0080 0.316 0.038 0.19 0.552
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.1 0.038 0.192 0.344
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.128 0.0 0.016 0.144
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.148 0.168

Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011

3 Responses to “2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 9”

  1. Myster D says:

    Are these total probabilities sorted in any matter? Wouldnt it make sense to list them in descending order to show the 6 most likely teams to make playoffs? This cover any division winner having worse records than WC team possibilites.

  2. admin says:

    The order of listing is based on weighted seed position. Teams listed at the top have the best odds for the top seeds.

  3. Myster D says:

    Then shouldnt Houston be listed ahead of Baltimore.

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