Here are this weeks predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New England | 56.084 | 29.244 | 14.582 | 0.09 |
NY Jets | 23.06 | 37.584 | 38.632 | 0.724 |
Buffalo | 20.844 | 33.02 | 45.012 | 1.124 |
Miami | 0.012 | 0.152 | 1.774 | 98.062 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Baltimore | 60.692 | 29.398 | 9.334 | 0.576 |
Pittsburgh | 32.142 | 52.652 | 14.48 | 0.726 |
Cincinnati | 7.054 | 17.25 | 69.04 | 6.656 |
Cleveland | 0.112 | 0.7 | 7.146 | 92.042 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Houston | 98.576 | 1.37 | 0.054 | 0.0 |
Tennessee | 1.208 | 71.792 | 26.822 | 0.178 |
Jacksonville | 0.216 | 26.758 | 69.938 | 3.088 |
Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.08 | 3.186 | 96.734 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Diego | 65.116 | 22.496 | 9.894 | 2.494 |
Oakland | 20.764 | 30.816 | 30.944 | 17.476 |
Kansas City | 9.822 | 30.298 | 31.974 | 27.906 |
Denver | 4.298 | 16.39 | 27.188 | 52.124 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
NY Giants | 54.67 | 28.466 | 13.628 | 3.236 |
Dallas | 31.236 | 35.12 | 26.548 | 7.096 |
Philadelphia | 12.826 | 31.112 | 42.83 | 13.232 |
Washington | 1.268 | 5.302 | 16.994 | 76.436 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Green Bay | 90.46 | 8.742 | 0.798 | 0.0 |
Detroit | 8.542 | 64.596 | 26.596 | 0.266 |
Chicago | 0.998 | 26.606 | 71.22 | 1.176 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.056 | 1.386 | 98.558 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New Orleans | 80.494 | 17.602 | 1.772 | 0.132 |
Atlanta | 18.194 | 61.578 | 16.67 | 3.558 |
Tampa Bay | 0.988 | 14.038 | 49.33 | 35.644 |
Carolina | 0.324 | 6.782 | 32.228 | 60.666 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Francisco | 99.564 | 0.414 | 0.022 | 0.0 |
Seattle | 0.114 | 38.122 | 31.894 | 29.87 |
Arizona | 0.194 | 29.308 | 35.848 | 34.65 |
St Louis | 0.128 | 32.156 | 32.236 | 35.48 |
Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Baltimore | 36.324 | 15.734 | 7.54 | 1.094 | 22.448 | 8.842 | 91.982 |
Houston | 31.896 | 36.256 | 26.128 | 4.296 | 0.084 | 0.316 | 98.976 |
Pittsburgh | 14.1 | 12.982 | 4.582 | 0.478 | 45.746 | 12.302 | 90.19 |
New England | 10.168 | 18.316 | 25.64 | 1.96 | 6.106 | 16.382 | 78.572 |
Buffalo | 2.366 | 5.6 | 10.76 | 2.118 | 5.774 | 15.372 | 41.99 |
Cincinnati | 2.494 | 2.572 | 1.748 | 0.24 | 12.342 | 19.146 | 38.542 |
NY Jets | 1.902 | 5.774 | 13.514 | 1.87 | 5.808 | 19.422 | 48.29 |
San Diego | 0.622 | 2.13 | 6.518 | 55.846 | 0.104 | 0.646 | 65.866 |
Tennessee | 0.076 | 0.236 | 0.646 | 0.25 | 1.188 | 4.87 | 7.266 |
Oakland | 0.04 | 0.274 | 1.968 | 18.482 | 0.108 | 0.906 | 21.778 |
Kansas City | 0.012 | 0.064 | 0.464 | 9.282 | 0.096 | 0.548 | 10.466 |
Denver | 0.0 | 0.03 | 0.288 | 3.98 | 0.026 | 0.398 | 4.722 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.022 | 0.056 | 0.034 | 0.13 | 0.414 | 0.656 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.146 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.426 | 0.682 |
Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 0.01 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.022 |
Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Green Bay | 77.538 | 11.534 | 1.234 | 0.154 | 8.552 | 0.826 | 99.838 |
San Francisco | 13.604 | 47.414 | 23.176 | 15.37 | 0.0040 | 0.044 | 99.612 |
Detroit | 4.368 | 3.058 | 0.924 | 0.192 | 53.182 | 18.752 | 80.476 |
NY Giants | 2.672 | 13.13 | 18.438 | 20.43 | 3.316 | 8.65 | 66.636 |
New Orleans | 1.064 | 15.67 | 32.002 | 31.758 | 2.036 | 3.918 | 86.448 |
Dallas | 0.286 | 6.314 | 12.4 | 12.236 | 2.632 | 12.152 | 46.02 |
Chicago | 0.424 | 0.386 | 0.172 | 0.016 | 23.266 | 35.246 | 59.51 |
Atlanta | 0.044 | 2.06 | 7.806 | 8.284 | 5.644 | 12.448 | 36.286 |
Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.388 | 3.324 | 9.114 | 1.064 | 5.516 | 19.406 |
Washington | 0.0 | 0.032 | 0.28 | 0.956 | 0.116 | 0.972 | 2.356 |
Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.01 | 0.208 | 0.77 | 0.08 | 0.866 | 1.934 |
Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0040 | 0.014 | 0.176 | 0.012 | 0.064 | 0.27 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0080 | 0.316 | 0.038 | 0.19 | 0.552 |
Seattle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.1 | 0.038 | 0.192 | 0.344 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.128 | 0.0 | 0.016 | 0.144 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.148 | 0.168 |
Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011
Are these total probabilities sorted in any matter? Wouldnt it make sense to list them in descending order to show the 6 most likely teams to make playoffs? This cover any division winner having worse records than WC team possibilites.
The order of listing is based on weighted seed position. Teams listed at the top have the best odds for the top seeds.
Then shouldnt Houston be listed ahead of Baltimore.