NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	56.084	29.244	14.582	0.09
NY Jets	23.06	37.584	38.632	0.724
Buffalo	20.844	33.02	45.012	1.124
Miami	0.012	0.152	1.774	98.062

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	60.692	29.398	9.334	0.576
Pittsburgh	32.142	52.652	14.48	0.726
Cincinnati	7.054	17.25	69.04	6.656
Cleveland	0.112	0.7	7.146	92.042

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	98.576	1.37	0.054	0.0
Tennessee	1.208	71.792	26.822	0.178
Jacksonville	0.216	26.758	69.938	3.088
Indianapolis	0.0	0.08	3.186	96.734

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	65.116	22.496	9.894	2.494
Oakland	20.764	30.816	30.944	17.476
Kansas City	9.822	30.298	31.974	27.906
Denver	4.298	16.39	27.188	52.124

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	54.67	28.466	13.628	3.236
Dallas	31.236	35.12	26.548	7.096
Philadelphia	12.826	31.112	42.83	13.232
Washington	1.268	5.302	16.994	76.436

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	90.46	8.742	0.798	0.0
Detroit	8.542	64.596	26.596	0.266
Chicago	0.998	26.606	71.22	1.176
Minnesota	0.0	0.056	1.386	98.558

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	80.494	17.602	1.772	0.132
Atlanta	18.194	61.578	16.67	3.558
Tampa Bay	0.988	14.038	49.33	35.644
Carolina	0.324	6.782	32.228	60.666

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	99.564	0.414	0.022	0.0
Seattle	0.114	38.122	31.894	29.87
Arizona	0.194	29.308	35.848	34.65
St Louis	0.128	32.156	32.236	35.48

Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Baltimore	36.324	15.734	7.54	1.094	22.448	8.842	91.982
Houston	31.896	36.256	26.128	4.296	0.084	0.316	98.976
Pittsburgh	14.1	12.982	4.582	0.478	45.746	12.302	90.19
New England	10.168	18.316	25.64	1.96	6.106	16.382	78.572
Buffalo	2.366	5.6	10.76	2.118	5.774	15.372	41.99
Cincinnati	2.494	2.572	1.748	0.24	12.342	19.146	38.542
NY Jets	1.902	5.774	13.514	1.87	5.808	19.422	48.29
San Diego	0.622	2.13	6.518	55.846	0.104	0.646	65.866
Tennessee	0.076	0.236	0.646	0.25	1.188	4.87	7.266
Oakland	0.04	0.274	1.968	18.482	0.108	0.906	21.778
Kansas City	0.012	0.064	0.464	9.282	0.096	0.548	10.466
Denver	0.0	0.03	0.288	3.98	0.026	0.398	4.722
Cleveland	0.0	0.022	0.056	0.034	0.13	0.414	0.656
Jacksonville	0.0	0.01	0.146	0.06	0.04	0.426	0.682
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.01	0.0	0.01	0.022
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Green Bay	77.538	11.534	1.234	0.154	8.552	0.826	99.838
San Francisco	13.604	47.414	23.176	15.37	0.0040	0.044	99.612
Detroit	4.368	3.058	0.924	0.192	53.182	18.752	80.476
NY Giants	2.672	13.13	18.438	20.43	3.316	8.65	66.636
New Orleans	1.064	15.67	32.002	31.758	2.036	3.918	86.448
Dallas	0.286	6.314	12.4	12.236	2.632	12.152	46.02
Chicago	0.424	0.386	0.172	0.016	23.266	35.246	59.51
Atlanta	0.044	2.06	7.806	8.284	5.644	12.448	36.286
Philadelphia	0.0	0.388	3.324	9.114	1.064	5.516	19.406
Washington	0.0	0.032	0.28	0.956	0.116	0.972	2.356
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.01	0.208	0.77	0.08	0.866	1.934
Arizona	0.0	0.0040	0.014	0.176	0.012	0.064	0.27
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0080	0.316	0.038	0.19	0.552
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.014	0.1	0.038	0.192	0.344
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.128	0.0	0.016	0.144
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.148	0.168

Generated: Thu Nov 10 00:09:43 EST 2011

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 10th, 2011 at 1:18 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.