Here are this weeks predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New England | 50.694 | 38.878 | 10.4 | 0.028 |
Buffalo | 41.62 | 40.338 | 17.842 | 0.2 |
NY Jets | 7.684 | 20.728 | 70.226 | 1.362 |
Miami | 0.0020 | 0.056 | 1.532 | 98.41 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Pittsburgh | 56.542 | 33.24 | 9.442 | 0.776 |
Baltimore | 35.362 | 44.846 | 17.688 | 2.104 |
Cincinnati | 7.846 | 20.272 | 62.27 | 9.612 |
Cleveland | 0.25 | 1.642 | 10.6 | 87.508 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Houston | 92.43 | 7.164 | 0.406 | 0.0 |
Tennessee | 7.006 | 75.268 | 17.322 | 0.404 |
Jacksonville | 0.564 | 17.208 | 73.58 | 8.648 |
Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.36 | 8.692 | 90.948 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Diego | 47.098 | 30.292 | 19.658 | 2.952 |
Oakland | 28.96 | 29.448 | 34.368 | 7.224 |
Kansas City | 22.668 | 35.502 | 31.652 | 10.178 |
Denver | 1.274 | 4.758 | 14.322 | 79.646 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
NY Giants | 42.012 | 27.654 | 20.222 | 10.112 |
Philadelphia | 25.348 | 32.674 | 28.088 | 13.89 |
Dallas | 27.684 | 28.5 | 28.378 | 15.438 |
Washington | 4.956 | 11.172 | 23.312 | 60.56 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Green Bay | 86.262 | 12.622 | 1.112 | 0.0040 |
Detroit | 12.832 | 68.734 | 18.09 | 0.344 |
Chicago | 0.906 | 18.476 | 75.938 | 4.68 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.168 | 4.86 | 94.972 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New Orleans | 85.768 | 11.636 | 2.298 | 0.298 |
Atlanta | 10.368 | 49.264 | 29.484 | 10.884 |
Tampa Bay | 3.268 | 27.464 | 40.112 | 29.156 |
Carolina | 0.596 | 11.636 | 28.106 | 59.662 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Francisco | 96.896 | 2.776 | 0.288 | 0.04 |
St Louis | 1.674 | 42.89 | 30.744 | 24.692 |
Seattle | 0.854 | 34.848 | 37.714 | 26.584 |
Arizona | 0.576 | 19.486 | 31.254 | 48.684 |
Generated: Tue Nov 01 19:57:05 EDT 2011
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Pittsburgh | 28.866 | 16.536 | 9.602 | 1.538 | 23.616 | 9.548 | 89.706 |
Houston | 22.78 | 27.012 | 30.208 | 12.43 | 0.962 | 1.572 | 94.964 |
Baltimore | 15.59 | 11.668 | 6.046 | 2.058 | 23.34 | 16.418 | 75.12 |
New England | 14.018 | 18.666 | 15.234 | 2.776 | 14.396 | 15.696 | 80.786 |
Buffalo | 12.722 | 13.564 | 11.914 | 3.42 | 14.366 | 15.018 | 71.004 |
Cincinnati | 2.572 | 2.492 | 2.094 | 0.688 | 9.354 | 11.982 | 29.182 |
San Diego | 1.074 | 3.158 | 8.462 | 34.404 | 0.908 | 2.398 | 50.404 |
NY Jets | 0.676 | 2.296 | 3.488 | 1.224 | 4.218 | 9.584 | 21.486 |
Tennessee | 0.678 | 1.694 | 2.876 | 1.758 | 6.45 | 10.972 | 24.428 |
Oakland | 0.496 | 1.704 | 6.228 | 20.532 | 0.87 | 2.874 | 32.704 |
Kansas City | 0.516 | 1.124 | 3.374 | 17.654 | 1.17 | 2.678 | 26.516 |
Cleveland | 0.01 | 0.044 | 0.104 | 0.092 | 0.206 | 0.618 | 1.074 |
Denver | 0.0020 | 0.018 | 0.1 | 1.154 | 0.04 | 0.156 | 1.47 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.024 | 0.268 | 0.272 | 0.104 | 0.48 | 1.148 |
Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0060 | 0.0080 |
Indianapolis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Green Bay | 75.078 | 9.398 | 1.54 | 0.246 | 11.846 | 1.448 | 99.556 |
San Francisco | 10.9 | 37.482 | 25.76 | 22.754 | 0.074 | 0.256 | 97.226 |
Detroit | 6.944 | 4.008 | 1.498 | 0.382 | 54.08 | 15.928 | 82.84 |
New Orleans | 3.044 | 23.298 | 30.136 | 29.29 | 1.258 | 2.556 | 89.582 |
NY Giants | 2.906 | 11.108 | 14.022 | 13.976 | 5.428 | 11.742 | 59.182 |
Dallas | 0.536 | 7.434 | 10.66 | 9.054 | 3.182 | 14.156 | 45.022 |
Philadelphia | 0.17 | 4.056 | 9.25 | 11.872 | 5.74 | 13.9 | 44.988 |
Chicago | 0.318 | 0.346 | 0.168 | 0.074 | 12.968 | 22.106 | 35.98 |
Atlanta | 0.062 | 1.704 | 4.04 | 4.562 | 3.47 | 9.232 | 23.07 |
Washington | 0.032 | 0.978 | 1.82 | 2.126 | 1.236 | 4.806 | 10.998 |
Tampa Bay | 0.01 | 0.142 | 0.71 | 2.406 | 0.35 | 1.946 | 5.564 |
Seattle | 0.0 | 0.03 | 0.126 | 0.698 | 0.172 | 0.804 | 1.83 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0060 | 0.166 | 1.502 | 0.056 | 0.3 | 2.03 |
Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0080 | 0.058 | 0.51 | 0.026 | 0.162 | 0.764 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 0.046 | 0.548 | 0.072 | 0.296 | 0.964 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.042 | 0.362 | 0.404 |
Generated: Tue Nov 01 19:57:05 EDT 2011
Could you use this to create a predicted draft order?
Yes, predicted draft order is shown in the software. Very easy to run. Give it a try.
I’m been using the software you make available for download and I am confused about how it is determining the draft order probabilities. For example, the Super Bowl champion is supose to draft last (i.e. 32nd), so why is the software projecting GB to have a different odds for “Winning the Super Bowl” and being 32nd in the draft? As of now the software says GB wins the Super Bowl in 22.8% of simulation and has the 32nd pick in about 72.5% of simulations.
ampron — You are correct that the draft position odds for playoff teams aren’t accurate. I’m more concerned about the top 15 to 20 draft slots. If your team is in playoff contention, you should be focused on that. If your team doesn’t have a prayer of making the playoffs, you might become more interested in where they are going to draft and my program captures that. But if you are a Packer fan and are wondering where you will draft in 2012, all I can say is: seek help.
Ok, thanks for that clarification. And yes of course, the draft odds are great for watching the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes. I agree that no one is concerned for the Packers draft position, I was just curious about that discrepancy in the odds.