2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats. Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 50.694 38.878 10.4 0.028
Buffalo 41.62 40.338 17.842 0.2
NY Jets 7.684 20.728 70.226 1.362
Miami 0.0020 0.056 1.532 98.41

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 56.542 33.24 9.442 0.776
Baltimore 35.362 44.846 17.688 2.104
Cincinnati 7.846 20.272 62.27 9.612
Cleveland 0.25 1.642 10.6 87.508

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 92.43 7.164 0.406 0.0
Tennessee 7.006 75.268 17.322 0.404
Jacksonville 0.564 17.208 73.58 8.648
Indianapolis 0.0 0.36 8.692 90.948

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 47.098 30.292 19.658 2.952
Oakland 28.96 29.448 34.368 7.224
Kansas City 22.668 35.502 31.652 10.178
Denver 1.274 4.758 14.322 79.646

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 42.012 27.654 20.222 10.112
Philadelphia 25.348 32.674 28.088 13.89
Dallas 27.684 28.5 28.378 15.438
Washington 4.956 11.172 23.312 60.56

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 86.262 12.622 1.112 0.0040
Detroit 12.832 68.734 18.09 0.344
Chicago 0.906 18.476 75.938 4.68
Minnesota 0.0 0.168 4.86 94.972

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 85.768 11.636 2.298 0.298
Atlanta 10.368 49.264 29.484 10.884
Tampa Bay 3.268 27.464 40.112 29.156
Carolina 0.596 11.636 28.106 59.662

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 96.896 2.776 0.288 0.04
St Louis 1.674 42.89 30.744 24.692
Seattle 0.854 34.848 37.714 26.584
Arizona 0.576 19.486 31.254 48.684

Generated: Tue Nov 01 19:57:05 EDT 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 28.866 16.536 9.602 1.538 23.616 9.548 89.706
Houston 22.78 27.012 30.208 12.43 0.962 1.572 94.964
Baltimore 15.59 11.668 6.046 2.058 23.34 16.418 75.12
New England 14.018 18.666 15.234 2.776 14.396 15.696 80.786
Buffalo 12.722 13.564 11.914 3.42 14.366 15.018 71.004
Cincinnati 2.572 2.492 2.094 0.688 9.354 11.982 29.182
San Diego 1.074 3.158 8.462 34.404 0.908 2.398 50.404
NY Jets 0.676 2.296 3.488 1.224 4.218 9.584 21.486
Tennessee 0.678 1.694 2.876 1.758 6.45 10.972 24.428
Oakland 0.496 1.704 6.228 20.532 0.87 2.874 32.704
Kansas City 0.516 1.124 3.374 17.654 1.17 2.678 26.516
Cleveland 0.01 0.044 0.104 0.092 0.206 0.618 1.074
Denver 0.0020 0.018 0.1 1.154 0.04 0.156 1.47
Jacksonville 0.0 0.024 0.268 0.272 0.104 0.48 1.148
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0080
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 75.078 9.398 1.54 0.246 11.846 1.448 99.556
San Francisco 10.9 37.482 25.76 22.754 0.074 0.256 97.226
Detroit 6.944 4.008 1.498 0.382 54.08 15.928 82.84
New Orleans 3.044 23.298 30.136 29.29 1.258 2.556 89.582
NY Giants 2.906 11.108 14.022 13.976 5.428 11.742 59.182
Dallas 0.536 7.434 10.66 9.054 3.182 14.156 45.022
Philadelphia 0.17 4.056 9.25 11.872 5.74 13.9 44.988
Chicago 0.318 0.346 0.168 0.074 12.968 22.106 35.98
Atlanta 0.062 1.704 4.04 4.562 3.47 9.232 23.07
Washington 0.032 0.978 1.82 2.126 1.236 4.806 10.998
Tampa Bay 0.01 0.142 0.71 2.406 0.35 1.946 5.564
Seattle 0.0 0.03 0.126 0.698 0.172 0.804 1.83
St Louis 0.0 0.0060 0.166 1.502 0.056 0.3 2.03
Arizona 0.0 0.0080 0.058 0.51 0.026 0.162 0.764
Carolina 0.0 0.0020 0.046 0.548 0.072 0.296 0.964
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.042 0.362 0.404

Generated: Tue Nov 01 19:57:05 EDT 2011

6 Responses to “2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 8”

  1. Gerrit says:

    Could you use this to create a predicted draft order?

  2. admin says:

    Yes, predicted draft order is shown in the software. Very easy to run. Give it a try.

  3. ampron says:

    I’m been using the software you make available for download and I am confused about how it is determining the draft order probabilities. For example, the Super Bowl champion is supose to draft last (i.e. 32nd), so why is the software projecting GB to have a different odds for “Winning the Super Bowl” and being 32nd in the draft? As of now the software says GB wins the Super Bowl in 22.8% of simulation and has the 32nd pick in about 72.5% of simulations.

  4. admin says:

    ampron — You are correct that the draft position odds for playoff teams aren’t accurate. I’m more concerned about the top 15 to 20 draft slots. If your team is in playoff contention, you should be focused on that. If your team doesn’t have a prayer of making the playoffs, you might become more interested in where they are going to draft and my program captures that. But if you are a Packer fan and are wondering where you will draft in 2012, all I can say is: seek help.

  5. ampron says:

    Ok, thanks for that clarification. And yes of course, the draft odds are great for watching the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes. I agree that no one is concerned for the Packers draft position, I was just curious about that discrepancy in the odds.

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