2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 10

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 86.794 11.3 1.904 0.0020
NY Jets 4.358 52.736 41.744 1.162
Buffalo 8.84 35.638 53.048 2.474
Miami 0.0080 0.326 3.304 96.362

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 66.866 29.91 3.198 0.026
Baltimore 29.648 51.804 17.87 0.678
Cincinnati 3.478 18.05 74.654 3.818
Cleveland 0.0080 0.236 4.278 95.478

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.276 0.712 0.012 0.0
Tennessee 0.684 84.338 14.978 0.0
Jacksonville 0.04 14.95 84.904 0.106
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.106 99.894

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 75.298 17.888 5.738 1.076
San Diego 15.924 48.826 28.742 6.508
Denver 7.832 28.874 46.28 17.014
Kansas City 0.946 4.412 19.24 75.402

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 57.586 33.814 7.848 0.752
NY Giants 39.064 48.278 10.994 1.664
Philadelphia 3.034 15.512 64.578 16.876
Washington 0.316 2.396 16.58 80.708

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 96.842 2.644 0.514 0.0
Chicago 0.94 50.536 48.482 0.042
Detroit 2.218 46.812 50.876 0.094
Minnesota 0.0 0.0080 0.128 99.864

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.594 4.344 0.062 0.0
Atlanta 4.298 83.032 11.236 1.434
Tampa Bay 0.09 9.42 56.12 34.37
Carolina 0.018 3.204 32.582 64.196

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.734 0.256 0.01 0.0
Seattle 0.068 45.9 31.434 22.598
Arizona 0.176 34.784 40.876 24.164
St Louis 0.022 19.06 27.68 53.238

Generated: Thu Nov 17 01:04:24 EST 2011

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 52.71 28.894 15.678 1.994 0.15 0.24 99.666
Pittsburgh 18.446 34.498 13.07 0.852 27.042 4.232 98.14
New England 17.204 21.37 45.34 2.88 3.144 5.88 95.818
Baltimore 10.2 10.308 8.116 1.024 37.298 15.688 82.634
Cincinnati 0.702 1.13 1.446 0.2 12.678 18.994 35.15
Buffalo 0.436 1.588 5.828 0.988 5.072 12.912 26.824
Oakland 0.198 1.362 6.424 67.314 0.254 1.304 76.856
NY Jets 0.038 0.588 2.866 0.866 6.896 23.64 34.894
Tennessee 0.062 0.188 0.34 0.094 6.926 14.046 21.656
San Diego 0.0 0.046 0.396 15.482 0.216 1.294 17.434
Denver 0.0040 0.028 0.458 7.342 0.168 1.002 9.002
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.942 0.0 0.016 0.962
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.018 0.124 0.6 0.764
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0020 0.032 0.134 0.174
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0020 0.0 0.018 0.026
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 81.036 14.564 1.132 0.11 2.586 0.522 99.95
San Francisco 16.69 57.676 17.322 8.046 0.026 0.058 99.818
New Orleans 0.622 14.844 42.846 37.282 0.482 0.828 96.904
Dallas 0.266 8.544 22.734 26.042 2.926 9.16 69.672
NY Giants 0.368 2.804 13.518 22.374 4.75 11.092 54.906
Detroit 0.686 1.036 0.406 0.09 37.78 27.928 67.926
Chicago 0.332 0.39 0.19 0.028 45.89 33.582 80.412
Atlanta 0.0 0.122 1.562 2.614 4.98 13.824 23.102
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0060 0.192 2.836 0.22 1.416 4.67
Arizona 0.0 0.014 0.032 0.13 0.04 0.38 0.596
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.034 0.282 0.04 0.264 0.62
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.052 0.246 0.718 1.032
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.074 0.02 0.182 0.292
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.0060 0.014 0.042
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.0040 0.02 0.042
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0040 0.012 0.016

Generated: Thu Nov 17 01:04:24 EST 2011

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