NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	94.136	5.206	0.644	0.014
NY Jets	1.394	57.54	35.77	5.296
Buffalo	4.436	34.82	52.122	8.622
Miami	0.034	2.434	11.464	86.068

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	63.196	33.27	3.446	0.088
Baltimore	34.736	55.704	8.96	0.6
Cincinnati	1.996	10.412	80.144	7.448
Cleveland	0.072	0.614	7.45	91.864

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	99.878	0.12	0.0020	0.0
Tennessee	0.12	85.578	14.302	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0020	14.302	85.472	0.224
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.224	99.776

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Oakland	74.736	18.564	6.124	0.576
San Diego	12.306	40.818	41.19	5.686
Denver	12.642	38.792	40.822	7.744
Kansas City	0.316	1.826	11.864	85.994

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	69.076	21.38	9.478	0.066
NY Giants	23.788	47.586	25.834	2.792
Philadelphia	7.102	29.196	57.166	6.536
Washington	0.034	1.838	7.522	90.606

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	95.324	3.67	1.006	0.0
Chicago	1.508	51.764	46.726	0.0020
Detroit	3.168	44.566	52.26	0.0060
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0080	99.992

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	91.968	7.95	0.082	0.0
Atlanta	7.948	85.99	5.912	0.15
Tampa Bay	0.084	5.656	69.55	24.71
Carolina	0.0	0.404	24.456	75.14

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	99.932	0.068	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.068	75.728	20.734	3.47
Arizona	0.0	20.464	60.168	19.368
St Louis	0.0	3.74	19.098	77.162

Generated: Wed Nov 23 13:45:37 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	54.238	29.066	14.43	2.144	0.014	0.056	99.948
Pittsburgh	16.442	34.546	11.308	0.9	32.37	3.346	98.912
New England	16.946	21.122	51.38	4.688	1.024	2.962	98.122
Baltimore	11.826	12.434	9.316	1.16	48.65	10.002	93.388
Oakland	0.196	1.598	7.21	65.732	0.498	3.58	78.814
Cincinnati	0.314	0.69	0.85	0.142	8.744	30.41	41.15
Buffalo	0.028	0.37	3.166	0.872	2.258	10.434	17.128
Denver	0.0060	0.102	1.168	11.366	0.504	4.618	17.764
San Diego	0.0	0.0080	0.25	12.048	0.304	2.58	15.19
NY Jets	0.0	0.032	0.81	0.552	2.3	19.736	23.43
Tennessee	0.0020	0.024	0.07	0.024	3.114	11.262	14.496
Cleveland	0.0020	0.0080	0.026	0.036	0.208	0.674	0.954
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.316	0.0	0.02	0.336
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.016	0.018	0.0020	0.108	0.144
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.01	0.212	0.224
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Green Bay	73.816	20.702	0.744	0.062	3.648	0.982	99.954
San Francisco	24.424	59.682	11.846	3.98	0.0080	0.018	99.958
New Orleans	0.43	10.062	48.638	32.838	0.75	1.58	94.298
Dallas	0.184	6.174	26.348	36.37	0.88	4.208	74.164
Detroit	0.71	1.816	0.574	0.068	37.164	29.67	70.002
Chicago	0.412	0.816	0.25	0.03	49.378	35.474	86.36
NY Giants	0.022	0.53	7.65	15.586	1.524	6.404	31.716
Atlanta	0.0020	0.216	3.526	4.204	6.266	19.12	33.334
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0020	0.366	6.734	0.154	1.488	8.744
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.028	0.04	0.214	0.862	1.144
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.028	0.056	0.0080	0.1	0.192
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.032	0.0040	0.062	0.1
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.032	0.034
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 23 13:45:37 EST 2011

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