Playoff predictions after week 5, 2006

This is the first week that game results from this season have been factored into the power ratings. Predictions from previous weeks were based only on preseason power ratings. As a result there are some big changes in the playoff odds this week compared to last. I view this week’s predictions as more accurate. Right now, the power ratings are an equal weight between pre-season expectations and results this far in the season. Each week the contribution of the preseason expectations will decrease until week 9, when the power rating will be calculated 100% from results this season. The power ratings and playoff probabilities will continue to have large swings for about 2 more weeks. It’s still to early to count anyone out. But teams like the Steelers and Carolina need to string together a few wins to regain the high rankings they had at the beginning of the season. My software probably underestimates their chances.




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