This is the first week that game results from this season have been factored into the power ratings. Predictions from previous weeks were based only on preseason power ratings. As a result there are some big changes in the playoff odds this week compared to last. I view this week’s predictions as more accurate. Right now, the power ratings are an equal weight between pre-season expectations and results this far in the season. Each week the contribution of the preseason expectations will decrease until week 9, when the power rating will be calculated 100% from results this season. The power ratings and playoff probabilities will continue to have large swings for about 2 more weeks. It’s still to early to count anyone out. But teams like the Steelers and Carolina need to string together a few wins to regain the high rankings they had at the beginning of the season. My software probably underestimates their chances.
