NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	99.88	0.12	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.12	99.88	0.0	0.0
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	74.702	25.298
Miami	0.0	0.0	25.298	74.702

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	51.53	48.47	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	48.47	51.53	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	98.48	1.52	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	1.52	98.48	0.0
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	79.272	20.166	0.562	0.0
Oakland	19.252	56.258	20.942	3.548
San Diego	0.882	21.73	60.216	17.172
Kansas City	0.594	1.846	18.28	79.28

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	63.23	29.602	6.964	0.204
Dallas	34.114	50.08	15.806	0.0
Philadelphia	2.656	19.5	70.86	6.984
Washington	0.0	0.818	6.37	92.812

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	85.196	14.804	0.0
Chicago	0.0	14.804	85.196	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	96.132	3.868	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	3.868	96.132	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	67.978	32.022
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	32.022	67.978

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Arizona	0.0	56.01	43.99	0.0
Seattle	0.0	43.99	56.01	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

Generated: Thu Dec 15 23:55:01 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	31.09	40.224	28.404	0.282	0.0	0.0	100.0
New England	26.722	25.838	43.656	3.664	0.0	0.102	99.982
Baltimore	27.472	12.91	7.986	0.102	50.85	0.632	99.952
Pittsburgh	14.714	20.832	15.972	0.012	48.45	0.02	100.0
Denver	0.0020	0.196	3.838	75.236	0.014	3.912	83.198
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.046	19.206	0.148	14.334	33.734
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.098	0.022	0.328	41.302	41.75
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.882	0.0	2.21	3.092
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.594	0.0	0.0	0.594
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.21	17.748	17.958
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.74	19.74
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Green Bay	99.876	0.124	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
New Orleans	0.0	61.01	35.044	0.078	3.734	0.134	100.0
San Francisco	0.124	38.382	59.258	2.236	0.0	0.0	100.0
Atlanta	0.0	0.478	3.39	0.0	66.646	17.206	87.72
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.0	63.23	0.018	0.552	63.8
Dallas	0.0	0.0060	2.308	31.8	0.956	2.632	37.702
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.656	0.0020	0.13	2.788
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.87	56.314	76.184
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.232	13.906	21.138
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.856	5.866	6.722
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.686	3.26	3.946
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 15 23:55:01 EST 2011

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