Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New England | 75.988 | 18.872 | 4.524 | 0.616 |
NY Jets | 15.612 | 47.114 | 24.782 | 12.492 |
Buffalo | 5.806 | 21.912 | 44.728 | 27.554 |
Miami | 2.594 | 12.102 | 25.966 | 59.338 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Cincinnati | 99.056 | 0.902 | 0.038 | 0.004 |
Cleveland | 0.752 | 58.488 | 28.388 | 12.372 |
Pittsburgh | 0.104 | 27.626 | 39.016 | 33.254 |
Baltimore | 0.088 | 12.984 | 32.558 | 54.37 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Indianapolis | 91.034 | 7.496 | 1.464 | 0.006 |
Tennessee | 4.638 | 46.032 | 47.278 | 2.052 |
Houston | 4.326 | 45.914 | 47.122 | 2.638 |
Jacksonville | 0.002 | 0.558 | 4.136 | 95.304 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Denver | 70.278 | 28.132 | 1.584 | 0.006 |
Kansas City | 28.972 | 65.114 | 5.836 | 0.078 |
San Diego | 0.748 | 6.644 | 80.918 | 11.69 |
Oakland | 0.002 | 0.11 | 11.662 | 88.226 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Dallas | 65.81 | 23.486 | 9.354 | 1.35 |
Philadelphia | 26.758 | 47.164 | 21.258 | 4.82 |
NY Giants | 5.456 | 21.548 | 45.334 | 27.662 |
Washington | 1.976 | 7.802 | 24.054 | 66.168 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Green Bay | 65.564 | 28.524 | 5.908 | 0.004 |
Detroit | 30.728 | 57.916 | 11.334 | 0.022 |
Chicago | 3.708 | 13.55 | 81.45 | 1.292 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.308 | 98.682 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New Orleans | 84.148 | 15.776 | 0.076 | 0.0 |
Carolina | 15.82 | 81.318 | 2.842 | 0.02 |
Atlanta | 0.032 | 2.896 | 89.94 | 7.132 |
Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.01 | 7.142 | 92.848 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Seattle | 74.874 | 24.89 | 0.236 | 0.0 |
San Francisco | 25.066 | 72.716 | 2.198 | 0.02 |
Arizona | 0.06 | 2.322 | 85.79 | 11.828 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.072 | 11.776 | 88.152 |
Generated: Thu Oct 31 00:26:12 EDT 2013
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Denver | 41.302 | 24.1 | 4.272 | 0.604 | 27.548 | 1.766 | 99.592 |
Cincinnati | 36.568 | 47.356 | 12.992 | 2.14 | 0.096 | 0.518 | 99.67 |
Kansas City | 17.114 | 9.934 | 1.73 | 0.194 | 63.514 | 5.506 | 97.992 |
Indianapolis | 3.884 | 13.68 | 44.478 | 28.992 | 0.174 | 1.814 | 93.022 |
New England | 0.868 | 4.048 | 26.522 | 44.55 | 0.524 | 6.246 | 82.758 |
San Diego | 0.248 | 0.264 | 0.188 | 0.048 | 5.602 | 21.55 | 27.9 |
NY Jets | 0.002 | 0.122 | 3.91 | 11.578 | 0.73 | 14.664 | 31.006 |
Tennessee | 0.006 | 0.116 | 1.958 | 2.558 | 0.29 | 9.266 | 14.194 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.212 | 0.302 | 0.238 | 0.492 | 15.392 | 16.636 |
Houston | 0.002 | 0.04 | 1.482 | 2.802 | 0.124 | 5.632 | 10.082 |
Miami | 0.006 | 0.07 | 0.692 | 1.826 | 0.192 | 3.73 | 6.516 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.028 | 1.376 | 4.402 | 0.394 | 5.374 | 11.574 |
Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.018 | 0.052 | 0.034 | 0.176 | 4.622 | 4.902 |
Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.012 | 0.044 | 0.032 | 0.048 | 2.24 | 2.376 |
Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.0 | 0.096 | 1.674 | 1.772 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.008 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Seattle | 56.684 | 14.01 | 4.096 | 0.084 | 22.074 | 2.464 | 99.412 |
New Orleans | 18.896 | 38.296 | 23.318 | 3.638 | 2.63 | 6.512 | 93.29 |
San Francisco | 17.748 | 5.948 | 1.332 | 0.038 | 58.538 | 10.714 | 94.318 |
Green Bay | 5.15 | 23.12 | 32.758 | 4.536 | 2.614 | 15.004 | 83.182 |
Detroit | 0.916 | 9.852 | 18.264 | 1.696 | 6.948 | 28.014 | 65.69 |
Carolina | 0.468 | 5.604 | 7.878 | 1.87 | 5.366 | 19.886 | 41.072 |
Dallas | 0.118 | 2.164 | 6.646 | 56.882 | 0.034 | 0.756 | 66.6 |
Philadelphia | 0.006 | 0.554 | 2.814 | 23.384 | 0.178 | 2.774 | 29.71 |
Chicago | 0.002 | 0.422 | 2.662 | 0.622 | 0.362 | 5.132 | 9.202 |
Arizona | 0.012 | 0.02 | 0.028 | 0.0 | 1.224 | 8.276 | 9.56 |
NY Giants | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.156 | 5.294 | 0.01 | 0.304 | 5.77 |
Washington | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.03 | 1.942 | 0.0 | 0.044 | 2.02 |
Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.016 | 0.084 | 0.132 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.006 | 0.036 | 0.042 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Thu Oct 31 00:26:12 EDT 2013