Here are this weeks predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New England | 63.066 | 24.714 | 9.862 | 2.358 |
Miami | 28.648 | 40.452 | 21.914 | 8.986 |
NY Jets | 5.796 | 24.028 | 44.362 | 25.814 |
Buffalo | 2.49 | 10.806 | 23.862 | 62.842 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Baltimore | 44.328 | 48.048 | 7.518 | 0.106 |
Pittsburgh | 53.822 | 38.606 | 6.822 | 0.75 |
Cincinnati | 1.836 | 12.576 | 70.33 | 15.258 |
Cleveland | 0.014 | 0.77 | 15.33 | 83.886 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Houston | 97.196 | 2.77 | 0.034 | 0.0 |
Indianapolis | 2.764 | 83.69 | 12.752 | 0.794 |
Tennessee | 0.038 | 12.122 | 66.21 | 21.63 |
Jacksonville | 0.002 | 1.418 | 21.004 | 77.576 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Denver | 97.938 | 1.924 | 0.138 | 0.0 |
San Diego | 1.602 | 60.374 | 37.742 | 0.282 |
Oakland | 0.46 | 37.6 | 59.514 | 2.426 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.102 | 2.606 | 97.292 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
NY Giants | 75.69 | 19.922 | 3.834 | 0.554 |
Dallas | 16.928 | 47.516 | 24.402 | 11.154 |
Philadelphia | 4.39 | 18.166 | 38.6 | 38.844 |
Washington | 2.992 | 14.396 | 33.164 | 49.448 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Chicago | 56.176 | 30.04 | 10.334 | 3.45 |
Green Bay | 32.014 | 37.464 | 20.43 | 10.092 |
Detroit | 7.234 | 18.652 | 35.278 | 38.836 |
Minnesota | 4.576 | 13.844 | 33.958 | 47.622 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Atlanta | 98.174 | 1.674 | 0.136 | 0.016 |
Tampa Bay | 1.508 | 47.066 | 35.412 | 16.014 |
Carolina | 0.236 | 40.528 | 41.442 | 17.794 |
New Orleans | 0.082 | 10.732 | 23.01 | 66.176 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Francisco | 91.786 | 7.114 | 0.986 | 0.114 |
Seattle | 6.5 | 69.144 | 18.69 | 5.666 |
St Louis | 1.434 | 14.464 | 46.718 | 37.384 |
Arizona | 0.28 | 9.278 | 33.606 | 56.836 |
Generated: Wed Nov 07 01:42:20 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Houston | 78.554 | 13.306 | 4.064 | 1.272 | 2.358 | 0.324 | 99.878 |
Denver | 13.05 | 51.968 | 21.318 | 11.602 | 0.698 | 0.626 | 99.262 |
New England | 4.14 | 10.476 | 18.824 | 29.626 | 7.248 | 8.52 | 78.834 |
Baltimore | 1.628 | 10.576 | 19.294 | 12.83 | 19.158 | 12.34 | 75.826 |
Pittsburgh | 1.67 | 9.03 | 22.65 | 20.472 | 14.414 | 11.364 | 79.6 |
Indianapolis | 0.718 | 0.838 | 0.788 | 0.42 | 21.534 | 17.024 | 41.322 |
Miami | 0.2 | 3.116 | 10.532 | 14.8 | 10.754 | 13.536 | 52.938 |
San Diego | 0.034 | 0.43 | 0.478 | 0.66 | 9.45 | 10.548 | 21.6 |
NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.078 | 0.878 | 4.84 | 4.218 | 8.334 | 18.348 |
Cincinnati | 0.004 | 0.068 | 0.51 | 1.254 | 2.762 | 5.158 | 9.756 |
Oakland | 0.002 | 0.072 | 0.168 | 0.218 | 4.95 | 6.928 | 12.338 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.042 | 0.48 | 1.968 | 1.642 | 3.362 | 7.494 |
Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.012 | 0.026 | 0.778 | 1.732 | 2.548 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.016 | 0.112 | 0.142 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.112 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.002 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Atlanta | 52.38 | 24.94 | 14.428 | 6.426 | 0.446 | 0.538 | 99.158 |
San Francisco | 24.618 | 33.002 | 21.17 | 12.996 | 3.058 | 2.05 | 96.894 |
Chicago | 12.822 | 17.316 | 17.47 | 8.568 | 20.14 | 10.668 | 86.984 |
NY Giants | 6.55 | 13.562 | 22.26 | 33.318 | 4.396 | 5.658 | 85.744 |
Green Bay | 2.658 | 6.716 | 14.208 | 8.432 | 21.08 | 16.244 | 69.338 |
Seattle | 0.458 | 2.184 | 2.426 | 1.432 | 26.078 | 20.134 | 52.712 |
Detroit | 0.362 | 1.256 | 3.266 | 2.35 | 11.674 | 12.754 | 31.662 |
Minnesota | 0.056 | 0.52 | 1.472 | 2.528 | 3.724 | 7.118 | 15.418 |
Tampa Bay | 0.058 | 0.17 | 0.478 | 0.802 | 3.184 | 6.362 | 11.054 |
Dallas | 0.022 | 0.206 | 1.834 | 14.866 | 2.732 | 7.024 | 26.684 |
St Louis | 0.004 | 0.068 | 0.528 | 0.834 | 1.156 | 3.766 | 6.356 |
Philadelphia | 0.006 | 0.012 | 0.154 | 4.218 | 0.18 | 0.818 | 5.388 |
Arizona | 0.004 | 0.012 | 0.086 | 0.178 | 0.768 | 1.986 | 3.034 |
Washington | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.162 | 2.816 | 0.506 | 1.618 | 5.116 |
New Orleans | 0.002 | 0.02 | 0.024 | 0.036 | 0.29 | 0.784 | 1.156 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.002 | 0.034 | 0.2 | 0.588 | 2.478 | 3.302 |
Generated: Wed Nov 07 01:42:20 EST 2012