2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 9

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 63.066 24.714 9.862 2.358
Miami 28.648 40.452 21.914 8.986
NY Jets 5.796 24.028 44.362 25.814
Buffalo 2.49 10.806 23.862 62.842

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 44.328 48.048 7.518 0.106
Pittsburgh 53.822 38.606 6.822 0.75
Cincinnati 1.836 12.576 70.33 15.258
Cleveland 0.014 0.77 15.33 83.886

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 97.196 2.77 0.034 0.0
Indianapolis 2.764 83.69 12.752 0.794
Tennessee 0.038 12.122 66.21 21.63
Jacksonville 0.002 1.418 21.004 77.576

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 97.938 1.924 0.138 0.0
San Diego 1.602 60.374 37.742 0.282
Oakland 0.46 37.6 59.514 2.426
Kansas City 0.0 0.102 2.606 97.292

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 75.69 19.922 3.834 0.554
Dallas 16.928 47.516 24.402 11.154
Philadelphia 4.39 18.166 38.6 38.844
Washington 2.992 14.396 33.164 49.448

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 56.176 30.04 10.334 3.45
Green Bay 32.014 37.464 20.43 10.092
Detroit 7.234 18.652 35.278 38.836
Minnesota 4.576 13.844 33.958 47.622

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 98.174 1.674 0.136 0.016
Tampa Bay 1.508 47.066 35.412 16.014
Carolina 0.236 40.528 41.442 17.794
New Orleans 0.082 10.732 23.01 66.176

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 91.786 7.114 0.986 0.114
Seattle 6.5 69.144 18.69 5.666
St Louis 1.434 14.464 46.718 37.384
Arizona 0.28 9.278 33.606 56.836

Generated: Wed Nov 07 01:42:20 EST 2012
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 78.554 13.306 4.064 1.272 2.358 0.324 99.878
Denver 13.05 51.968 21.318 11.602 0.698 0.626 99.262
New England 4.14 10.476 18.824 29.626 7.248 8.52 78.834
Baltimore 1.628 10.576 19.294 12.83 19.158 12.34 75.826
Pittsburgh 1.67 9.03 22.65 20.472 14.414 11.364 79.6
Indianapolis 0.718 0.838 0.788 0.42 21.534 17.024 41.322
Miami 0.2 3.116 10.532 14.8 10.754 13.536 52.938
San Diego 0.034 0.43 0.478 0.66 9.45 10.548 21.6
NY Jets 0.0 0.078 0.878 4.84 4.218 8.334 18.348
Cincinnati 0.004 0.068 0.51 1.254 2.762 5.158 9.756
Oakland 0.002 0.072 0.168 0.218 4.95 6.928 12.338
Buffalo 0.0 0.042 0.48 1.968 1.642 3.362 7.494
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.012 0.026 0.778 1.732 2.548
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.01 0.016 0.112 0.142
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.02 0.09 0.112
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 52.38 24.94 14.428 6.426 0.446 0.538 99.158
San Francisco 24.618 33.002 21.17 12.996 3.058 2.05 96.894
Chicago 12.822 17.316 17.47 8.568 20.14 10.668 86.984
NY Giants 6.55 13.562 22.26 33.318 4.396 5.658 85.744
Green Bay 2.658 6.716 14.208 8.432 21.08 16.244 69.338
Seattle 0.458 2.184 2.426 1.432 26.078 20.134 52.712
Detroit 0.362 1.256 3.266 2.35 11.674 12.754 31.662
Minnesota 0.056 0.52 1.472 2.528 3.724 7.118 15.418
Tampa Bay 0.058 0.17 0.478 0.802 3.184 6.362 11.054
Dallas 0.022 0.206 1.834 14.866 2.732 7.024 26.684
St Louis 0.004 0.068 0.528 0.834 1.156 3.766 6.356
Philadelphia 0.006 0.012 0.154 4.218 0.18 0.818 5.388
Arizona 0.004 0.012 0.086 0.178 0.768 1.986 3.034
Washington 0.0 0.014 0.162 2.816 0.506 1.618 5.116
New Orleans 0.002 0.02 0.024 0.036 0.29 0.784 1.156
Carolina 0.0 0.002 0.034 0.2 0.588 2.478 3.302

Generated: Wed Nov 07 01:42:20 EST 2012

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