2012 Playoff Predictions after Week 8

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 51.386 33.704 12.11 2.8
Miami 42.472 38.388 14.576 4.564
NY Jets 4.038 19.386 48.312 28.264
Buffalo 2.104 8.522 25.002 64.372

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 52.88 34.17 10.268 2.682
Baltimore 41.362 42.256 13.09 3.292
Cincinnati 4.884 18.812 53.746 22.558
Cleveland 0.874 4.762 22.896 71.468

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 97.83 2.082 0.086 0.002
Indianapolis 1.996 70.786 23.438 3.78
Tennessee 0.162 22.942 56.642 20.254
Jacksonville 0.012 4.19 19.834 75.964

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 95.044 4.522 0.434 0.0
Oakland 3.476 58.048 37.076 1.4
San Diego 1.472 37.088 58.66 2.78
Kansas City 0.008 0.342 3.83 95.82

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 80.442 15.738 3.304 0.516
Dallas 11.276 44.42 28.608 15.696
Philadelphia 5.612 23.966 37.35 33.072
Washington 2.67 15.876 30.738 50.716

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 50.442 27.722 14.948 6.888
Green Bay 27.692 31.552 23.852 16.904
Minnesota 14.708 24.502 33.17 27.62
Detroit 7.158 16.224 28.03 48.588

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 98.652 1.262 0.082 0.004
Tampa Bay 1.1 49.964 36.234 12.702
Carolina 0.23 41.51 43.55 14.71
New Orleans 0.018 7.264 20.134 72.584

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 93.45 5.6 0.83 0.12
Seattle 4.692 61.754 23.502 10.052
St Louis 1.232 16.062 38.628 44.078
Arizona 0.626 16.584 37.04 45.75

Generated: Tue Oct 30 22:40:09 EDT 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 77.476 13.836 5.164 1.354 1.526 0.376 99.732
Denver 12.106 44.136 25.052 13.75 1.474 1.346 97.864
New England 5.382 12.618 18.55 14.836 15.378 11.548 78.312
Miami 2.14 12.876 17.974 9.482 20.122 12.418 75.012
Baltimore 1.144 7.944 13.1 19.174 11.138 10.408 62.908
Pittsburgh 1.064 5.806 14.682 31.328 6.812 8.918 68.61
Indianapolis 0.452 0.55 0.53 0.464 12.022 10.554 24.572
Oakland 0.122 0.964 1.288 1.102 12.352 14.446 30.274
Cincinnati 0.038 0.532 1.158 3.156 3.02 5.302 13.206
Buffalo 0.036 0.192 0.688 1.188 2.422 3.842 8.368
San Diego 0.022 0.318 0.516 0.616 6.156 8.36 15.988
NY Jets 0.012 0.184 1.154 2.688 5.516 8.672 18.226
Tennessee 0.006 0.038 0.064 0.054 1.832 2.972 4.966
Cleveland 0.0 0.006 0.076 0.792 0.16 0.602 1.636
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.008 0.07 0.222 0.304
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.008 0.0 0.014 0.022

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 49.144 23.496 14.97 11.042 0.29 0.288 99.23
San Francisco 23.682 31.328 23.02 15.42 2.294 1.678 97.422
NY Giants 16.768 22.966 23.74 16.968 7.418 4.642 92.502
Chicago 7.648 12.322 15.774 14.698 16.278 11.228 77.948
Green Bay 1.46 3.9 9.18 13.152 13.926 13.474 55.092
Minnesota 0.4 1.77 4.202 8.336 8.068 10.52 33.296
Dallas 0.328 1.206 2.788 6.954 8.602 11.952 31.83
Seattle 0.28 1.396 1.708 1.308 22.67 15.87 43.232
Detroit 0.208 0.954 2.342 3.654 8.46 9.794 25.412
Philadelphia 0.032 0.234 0.872 4.474 2.208 4.096 11.916
Washington 0.008 0.17 0.668 1.824 3.068 4.544 10.282
Arizona 0.02 0.088 0.172 0.346 2.766 3.882 7.274
Tampa Bay 0.016 0.09 0.27 0.724 1.946 3.53 6.576
St Louis 0.006 0.08 0.274 0.872 1.674 3.382 6.288
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.214 0.282 0.982 1.494
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.014 0.05 0.138 0.206

Generated: Tue Oct 30 22:40:09 EDT 2012

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