NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	51.386	33.704	12.11	2.8
Miami	42.472	38.388	14.576	4.564
NY Jets	4.038	19.386	48.312	28.264
Buffalo	2.104	8.522	25.002	64.372

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	52.88	34.17	10.268	2.682
Baltimore	41.362	42.256	13.09	3.292
Cincinnati	4.884	18.812	53.746	22.558
Cleveland	0.874	4.762	22.896	71.468

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	97.83	2.082	0.086	0.002
Indianapolis	1.996	70.786	23.438	3.78
Tennessee	0.162	22.942	56.642	20.254
Jacksonville	0.012	4.19	19.834	75.964

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	95.044	4.522	0.434	0.0
Oakland	3.476	58.048	37.076	1.4
San Diego	1.472	37.088	58.66	2.78
Kansas City	0.008	0.342	3.83	95.82

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	80.442	15.738	3.304	0.516
Dallas	11.276	44.42	28.608	15.696
Philadelphia	5.612	23.966	37.35	33.072
Washington	2.67	15.876	30.738	50.716

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	50.442	27.722	14.948	6.888
Green Bay	27.692	31.552	23.852	16.904
Minnesota	14.708	24.502	33.17	27.62
Detroit	7.158	16.224	28.03	48.588

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	98.652	1.262	0.082	0.004
Tampa Bay	1.1	49.964	36.234	12.702
Carolina	0.23	41.51	43.55	14.71
New Orleans	0.018	7.264	20.134	72.584

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	93.45	5.6	0.83	0.12
Seattle	4.692	61.754	23.502	10.052
St Louis	1.232	16.062	38.628	44.078
Arizona	0.626	16.584	37.04	45.75

Generated: Tue Oct 30 22:40:09 EDT 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	77.476	13.836	5.164	1.354	1.526	0.376	99.732
Denver	12.106	44.136	25.052	13.75	1.474	1.346	97.864
New England	5.382	12.618	18.55	14.836	15.378	11.548	78.312
Miami	2.14	12.876	17.974	9.482	20.122	12.418	75.012
Baltimore	1.144	7.944	13.1	19.174	11.138	10.408	62.908
Pittsburgh	1.064	5.806	14.682	31.328	6.812	8.918	68.61
Indianapolis	0.452	0.55	0.53	0.464	12.022	10.554	24.572
Oakland	0.122	0.964	1.288	1.102	12.352	14.446	30.274
Cincinnati	0.038	0.532	1.158	3.156	3.02	5.302	13.206
Buffalo	0.036	0.192	0.688	1.188	2.422	3.842	8.368
San Diego	0.022	0.318	0.516	0.616	6.156	8.36	15.988
NY Jets	0.012	0.184	1.154	2.688	5.516	8.672	18.226
Tennessee	0.006	0.038	0.064	0.054	1.832	2.972	4.966
Cleveland	0.0	0.006	0.076	0.792	0.16	0.602	1.636
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.004	0.008	0.07	0.222	0.304
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.008	0.0	0.014	0.022

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	49.144	23.496	14.97	11.042	0.29	0.288	99.23
San Francisco	23.682	31.328	23.02	15.42	2.294	1.678	97.422
NY Giants	16.768	22.966	23.74	16.968	7.418	4.642	92.502
Chicago	7.648	12.322	15.774	14.698	16.278	11.228	77.948
Green Bay	1.46	3.9	9.18	13.152	13.926	13.474	55.092
Minnesota	0.4	1.77	4.202	8.336	8.068	10.52	33.296
Dallas	0.328	1.206	2.788	6.954	8.602	11.952	31.83
Seattle	0.28	1.396	1.708	1.308	22.67	15.87	43.232
Detroit	0.208	0.954	2.342	3.654	8.46	9.794	25.412
Philadelphia	0.032	0.234	0.872	4.474	2.208	4.096	11.916
Washington	0.008	0.17	0.668	1.824	3.068	4.544	10.282
Arizona	0.02	0.088	0.172	0.346	2.766	3.882	7.274
Tampa Bay	0.016	0.09	0.27	0.724	1.946	3.53	6.576
St Louis	0.006	0.08	0.274	0.872	1.674	3.382	6.288
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.016	0.214	0.282	0.982	1.494
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.004	0.014	0.05	0.138	0.206

Generated: Tue Oct 30 22:40:09 EDT 2012

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