I’ve never seen the races so close to determined this early in the season. The improved bbnflstats.com predictions are partially responsible for the increased certainty, but more than that the way the season has played out there is just really clear stratification of the teams within the conferences.
AFC
NE
IND
PIT — could switch to the 4 seed
SD — could switch to the 3 seed
JAX
CLE — could lose out to Buffalo, Denver or Tennessee
NFC
DAL
GB
SEA
TB
NYG – could drop to 6th
MIN – could rise to 5th or drop their spot to NO, WAS, or ARZ
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
New England | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Pittsburgh | 93.14 | 6.86 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cleveland | 6.86 | 93.14 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.48 | 1.52 |
Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.52 | 98.48 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Indianapolis | 99.96 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Jacksonville | 0.04 | 98.32 | 1.64 | 0.0 |
Tennessee | 0.0 | 1.64 | 96.26 | 2.1 |
Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 97.9 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Diego | 97.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Denver | 2.7 | 96.52 | 0.76 | 0.02 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.58 | 78.58 | 20.84 |
Oakland | 0.0 | 0.2 | 20.66 | 79.14 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Dallas | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NY Giants | 0.0 | 98.66 | 1.34 | 0.0 |
Washington | 0.0 | 1.34 | 67.26 | 31.4 |
Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.4 | 68.6 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Green Bay | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 92.72 | 6.36 | 0.92 |
Detroit | 0.0 | 6.06 | 89.08 | 4.86 |
Chicago | 0.0 | 1.22 | 4.56 | 94.22 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Tampa Bay | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
New Orleans | 0.0 | 98.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 1.9 | 97.52 | 0.58 |
Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.58 | 99.42 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Seattle | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Arizona | 0.0 | 99.42 | 0.58 | 0.0 |
San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.02 | 57.7 | 42.28 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.56 | 41.72 | 57.72 |
Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
New England | 99.98 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Indianapolis | 0.02 | 99.2 | 0.72 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.7 | 61.44 | 31.0 | 0.24 | 6.08 | 99.46 |
San Diego | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.58 | 62.72 | 0.0 | 0.56 | 97.86 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.04 | 3.22 | 3.6 | 6.04 | 58.26 | 71.16 |
Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 92.46 | 6.66 | 99.16 |
Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 2.66 | 0.02 | 2.36 | 5.08 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 19.88 | 20.18 |
Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 6.2 | 7.1 |
Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Baltimore | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Dallas | 95.52 | 4.26 | 0.22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Green Bay | 4.44 | 91.88 | 3.44 | 0.24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Seattle | 0.04 | 3.74 | 86.68 | 9.54 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.12 | 9.66 | 90.22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NY Giants | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.24 | 22.08 | 97.32 |
Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.02 | 46.14 | 67.16 |
New Orleans | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.52 | 20.66 | 23.18 |
Washington | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.22 | 5.54 | 6.76 |
Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.58 | 4.58 |
Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
Philadelphia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
Chicago | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007