NFL playoff races and other musings

I’ve never seen the races so close to determined this early in the season. The improved bbnflstats.com predictions are partially responsible for the increased certainty, but more than that the way the season has played out there is just really clear stratification of the teams within the conferences.

AFC
NE
IND
PIT — could switch to the 4 seed
SD — could switch to the 3 seed
JAX
CLE — could lose out to Buffalo, Denver or Tennessee

NFC
DAL
GB
SEA
TB
NYG – could drop to 6th
MIN – could rise to 5th or drop their spot to NO, WAS, or ARZ

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Buffalo	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	93.14	6.86	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	6.86	93.14	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	98.48	1.52
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	1.52	98.48

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.96	0.04	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.04	98.32	1.64	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	1.64	96.26	2.1
Houston	0.0	0.0	2.1	97.9

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	97.3	2.7	0.0	0.0
Denver	2.7	96.52	0.76	0.02
Kansas City	0.0	0.58	78.58	20.84
Oakland	0.0	0.2	20.66	79.14

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Giants	0.0	98.66	1.34	0.0
Washington	0.0	1.34	67.26	31.4
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	31.4	68.6

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	92.72	6.36	0.92
Detroit	0.0	6.06	89.08	4.86
Chicago	0.0	1.22	4.56	94.22

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tampa Bay	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
New Orleans	0.0	98.1	1.9	0.0
Carolina	0.0	1.9	97.52	0.58
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.58	99.42

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Arizona	0.0	99.42	0.58	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	0.02	57.7	42.28
St Louis	0.0	0.56	41.72	57.72

Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New England	99.98	0.02	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Indianapolis	0.02	99.2	0.72	0.02	0.04	0.0	100.0
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.7	61.44	31.0	0.24	6.08	99.46
San Diego	0.0	0.0	34.58	62.72	0.0	0.56	97.86
Cleveland	0.0	0.04	3.22	3.6	6.04	58.26	71.16
Jacksonville	0.0	0.04	0.0	0.0	92.46	6.66	99.16
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.04	2.66	0.02	2.36	5.08
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	19.88	20.18
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	6.2	7.1
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Dallas	95.52	4.26	0.22	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Green Bay	4.44	91.88	3.44	0.24	0.0	0.0	100.0
Seattle	0.04	3.74	86.68	9.54	0.0	0.0	100.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.12	9.66	90.22	0.0	0.0	100.0
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	75.24	22.08	97.32
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	21.02	46.14	67.16
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.52	20.66	23.18
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.22	5.54	6.76
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.58	4.58
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.74	0.74
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.16	0.16
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.08	0.08
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 11 14:44:45 EST 2007

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