NFL playoff races and other musings

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Jets	54.12	27.38	16.6	1.9
Miami	37.0	32.06	27.9	3.04
New England	8.56	37.52	46.74	7.18
Buffalo	0.32	3.04	8.76	87.88

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	88.74	11.26	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	11.26	88.74	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	97.02	2.98
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	2.98	97.02

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tennessee	99.7	0.3	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	0.3	99.7	0.0	0.0
Houston	0.0	0.0	78.76	21.24
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	21.24	78.76

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	87.26	12.74	0.0	0.0
San Diego	12.72	86.06	1.06	0.16
Oakland	0.02	0.94	80.34	18.7
Kansas City	0.0	0.26	18.6	81.14

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	99.92	0.08	0.0	0.0
Washington	0.0	50.1	32.3	17.6
Dallas	0.08	31.62	41.16	27.14
Philadelphia	0.0	18.2	26.54	55.26

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	53.92	38.7	7.38	0.0
Chicago	28.46	36.48	35.06	0.0
Green Bay	17.62	24.82	57.56	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tampa Bay	33.9	28.42	37.22	0.46
Carolina	35.2	33.74	28.54	2.52
Atlanta	30.9	36.52	26.38	6.2
New Orleans	0.0	1.32	7.86	90.82

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	78.14	20.3	1.56
Seattle	0.0	15.62	64.7	19.68
St Louis	0.0	6.24	15.0	78.76

Generated: Thu Dec 04 14:02:59 EST 2008

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Tennessee	85.08	13.46	1.16	0.0	0.26	0.04	100.0
Pittsburgh	14.6	67.86	6.2	0.08	1.94	8.48	99.16
NY Jets	0.12	7.0	42.56	4.44	1.78	9.52	65.42
Baltimore	0.06	10.08	1.1	0.02	9.9	54.5	75.66
Miami	0.0	1.12	35.54	0.34	0.26	6.88	44.14
Indianapolis	0.14	0.16	0.0	0.0	84.8	11.4	96.5
Denver	0.0	0.1	5.02	82.14	0.0	0.0	87.26
New England	0.0	0.22	8.12	0.22	1.04	8.56	18.16
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.72	0.0	0.04	12.76
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.02	0.02	0.56	0.9
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.0	0.02
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NY Giants	84.46	15.4	0.06	0.0	0.02	0.02	99.96
Carolina	11.9	23.1	0.2	0.0	27.04	17.82	80.06
Tampa Bay	2.56	29.84	1.48	0.02	17.78	20.86	72.54
Atlanta	1.04	28.32	1.54	0.0	27.22	16.16	74.28
Arizona	0.0	2.74	76.26	21.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.56	16.82	36.54	0.02	0.02	53.96
Chicago	0.0	0.0	3.4	25.06	0.0	0.18	28.64
Dallas	0.04	0.04	0.0	0.0	11.22	15.26	26.56
Green Bay	0.0	0.0	0.24	17.38	0.0	0.0	17.62
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	15.34	21.4	36.74
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.22	7.0	8.22
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.14	1.28	1.42
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Thu Dec 04 14:02:59 EST 2008

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