I’m going to do these comparisons between Mike Harris’ playoff predictions based on DVOA power ratings and my playoff forecasts for the remainder of the season. I think they will provide a basis for determining the predictive value of the DVOA based power ratings in comparison to power ratings based on wins and losses only.
I’ve decided to use the playoff predictions based on the standard DVOA, rather than the Donovan McNabb adjusted version. Every team suffers injuries, and I don’t think you can consider an injury to one player in the whole league on an ad hoc basis. I also discovered that in week 10 I had mistakenly entered a Viking win over Green Bay, that was making my projections for the Vikings overly optimistic and to a lesser extent, penalizing the chances of the Packers. I fixed that in this weeks projections, but I haven’t gone back and fixed week 10 projections.
Division Championship Playoff Odds
Team DVOA NFL-F DVOA NFL-F
NewEngland 97.80% 89.76 98.40% 94.18
NYJets 1.90% 10 8.40% 28.48
Miami 0.10% 0.14 0.40% 1.32
Buffalo 0.00% 0.1 0.30% 2.36
Division Championship Playoff Odds
Team DVOA NFL-F DVOA NFL-F
Indianapolis 95.70% 99.34 99.50% 99.94
Jacksonville 4.20% 0.66 59.20% 32.16
Houston 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.14
Tennessee 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.02
Division Championship Playoff Odds
Team DVOA NFL-F DVOA NFL-F
Baltimore 98.50% 96.64 99.10% 98
Cincinnati 1.10% 2.62 10.20% 18.94
Pittsburgh 0.30% 0.74 1.80% 1.76
Cleveland 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.24
Division Championship Playoff Odds
Team DVOA NFL-F DVOA NFL-F
SanDiego 87.00% 62.6 99.60% 96.82
Denver 11.80% 31.96 88.60% 90.72
KansasCity 1.10% 5.44 33.70% 34.92
Oakland 0.00% 0 0.00% 0
Division Championship Playoff Odds
Team DVOA NFL-F DVOA NFL-F
NYGiants 43.20% 62.2 89.40% 82.2
Philadelphia 8.00% 29.46 54.90% 27.92
Dallas 48.60% 8.34 93.60% 61.42
Washington 0.00% 0 0.50% 0.54
Division Championship Playoff Odds
Team DVOA NFL-F DVOA NFL-F
Chicago 100.00% 99.94 100.00% 99.98
GreenBay 0.00% 0.04 7.50% 2.72
Minnesota 0.00% 0.02 4.60% 14.9
Detroit 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.02
Division Championship Playoff Odds
Team DVOA NFL-F DVOA NFL-F
NewOrleans 51.50% 43.04 70.20% 75.84
Carolina 44.60% 43.84 62.50% 70.46
Atlanta 3.80% 13.12 7.60% 29.66
TampaBay 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.42
Division Championship Playoff Odds
Team DVOA NFL-F DVOA NFL-F
Seattle 69.60% 72.32 72.50% 82.16
SanFrancisco 11.00% 21.64 12.60% 33.42
StLouis 19.20% 6.04 23.40% 18.34
Arizona 0.00% 0 0.00% 0