Playoff Predictions 2006, after week 8

A couple notes:

┬áThere is a lot of play in the power ratings this week, which means a lot of play in the predictions. I know how to fix this, but probably won’t get to it for a while.

┬áDespite this, I’m confident in saying that at least one of the AFC wild cards will come out of the West. Big losers in the playoff race this week were the Steelers and the Jets. They effectively drop from the race. Not to say they can’t get back in it, but the odds are stacked strongly against them.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 98.06 1.92 0.02 0.0
NY Jets 1.92 81.32 16.4 0.36
Buffalo 0.02 16.4 77.06 6.52
Miami 0.0 0.36 6.52 93.12

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Baltimore 83.86 15.1 1.0 0.04
Cincinnati 15.62 74.5 9.0 0.88
Cleveland 0.28 6.16 49.72 43.84
Pittsburgh 0.24 4.24 40.28 55.24

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 99.52 0.48 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.48 86.92 11.28 1.32
Tennessee 0.0 10.68 60.36 28.96
Houston 0.0 1.92 28.36 69.72

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 59.22 28.24 12.5 0.04
San Diego 28.44 40.6 30.56 0.4
Kansas City 12.34 31.04 55.04 1.58
Oakland 0.0 0.12 1.9 97.98

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 90.24 8.4 1.26 0.1
Dallas 7.2 54.44 29.14 9.22
Philadelphia 2.0 26.72 42.14 29.14
Washington 0.56 10.44 27.46 61.54

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Chicago 94.46 5.46 0.08 0.0
Minnesota 5.32 81.18 12.42 1.08
Green Bay 0.22 12.2 66.94 20.64
Detroit 0.0 1.16 20.56 78.28

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 53.34 38.6 7.24 0.82
New Orleans 43.0 44.98 11.12 0.9
Carolina 3.48 14.56 65.02 16.94
Tampa Bay 0.18 1.86 16.62 81.34

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 71.44 27.86 0.7 0.0
St Louis 28.4 69.36 2.08 0.16
San Francisco 0.14 2.34 63.92 33.6
Arizona 0.02 0.44 33.3 66.24

Generated: Tue Oct 31 00:21:13 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 73.62 19.34 5.24 1.32 0.38 0.1 100.0
New England 20.1 35.9 26.9 15.16 0.4 0.58 99.04
Baltimore 3.0 14.5 24.14 42.22 3.18 4.16 91.2
Denver 2.24 21.2 23.92 11.86 20.48 11.26 90.96
San Diego 0.84 6.16 10.34 11.1 25.84 18.02 72.3
Kansas City 0.12 1.84 5.38 5.0 18.94 19.4 50.68
Cincinnati 0.0 0.82 3.26 11.54 8.62 14.1 38.34
Jacksonville 0.08 0.1 0.16 0.14 15.28 17.14 32.9
NY Jets 0.0 0.14 0.62 1.16 5.72 11.64 19.28
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.22 0.06 0.14 0.44
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.28 0.28 0.84 1.4
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.76 2.06 2.84
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04 0.36 0.4
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.08
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Chicago 61.04 21.2 8.64 3.58 3.52 1.22 99.2
NY Giants 18.84 26.26 22.06 23.08 1.56 2.34 94.14
New Orleans 6.68 14.26 13.18 8.88 17.3 16.54 76.84
Atlanta 5.84 16.24 16.94 14.32 13.3 13.18 79.82
Seattle 2.82 14.16 25.04 29.42 4.06 6.78 82.28
Minnesota 2.74 1.22 1.02 0.34 39.32 20.14 64.78
St Louis 1.48 4.12 8.92 13.88 8.6 12.82 49.82
Dallas 0.38 1.72 2.22 2.88 7.2 12.44 26.84
Carolina 0.12 0.56 1.3 1.5 2.14 5.52 11.14
Washington 0.04 0.04 0.1 0.38 0.46 1.46 2.48
Philadelphia 0.0 0.18 0.46 1.36 1.56 4.96 8.52
Green Bay 0.02 0.02 0.08 0.1 0.74 1.66 2.62
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.24 0.74 1.16
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.0 0.06 0.2
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.14

Generated: Tue Oct 31 00:21:13 EST 2006

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