These are the first predictions for the 2008 season. They were computed before the start of the week 6 games and are posted in order to provide documentation of the prediction accuracy for the 2008 season. I think the predictions are putting a little too much stock in Miami, Tennessee and Arizona so early in the season. We’ll see.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Miami | 55.32 | 29.22 | 13.08 | 2.38 |
NY Jets | 22.8 | 32.16 | 31.18 | 13.86 |
Buffalo | 20.04 | 30.88 | 33.86 | 15.22 |
New England | 1.84 | 7.74 | 21.88 | 68.54 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Pittsburgh | 92.24 | 7.34 | 0.4 | 0.02 |
Baltimore | 7.4 | 83.06 | 8.34 | 1.2 |
Cincinnati | 0.34 | 6.56 | 52.1 | 41.0 |
Cleveland | 0.02 | 3.04 | 39.16 | 57.78 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Tennessee | 83.92 | 13.74 | 2.26 | 0.08 |
Indianapolis | 12.72 | 53.48 | 27.86 | 5.94 |
Jacksonville | 3.28 | 28.64 | 51.34 | 16.74 |
Houston | 0.08 | 4.14 | 18.54 | 77.24 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Diego | 66.34 | 32.08 | 1.58 | 0.0 |
Denver | 32.58 | 60.96 | 6.42 | 0.04 |
Oakland | 1.08 | 6.96 | 88.62 | 3.34 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.38 | 96.62 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Washington | 58.48 | 36.7 | 4.3 | 0.52 |
NY Giants | 38.52 | 45.24 | 12.5 | 3.74 |
Dallas | 2.38 | 12.24 | 52.48 | 32.9 |
Philadelphia | 0.62 | 5.82 | 30.72 | 62.84 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Chicago | 83.98 | 13.74 | 2.28 | 0.0 |
Minnesota | 12.92 | 61.12 | 25.82 | 0.14 |
Green Bay | 3.1 | 25.14 | 71.46 | 0.3 |
Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.44 | 99.56 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Carolina | 84.7 | 11.78 | 2.88 | 0.64 |
Tampa Bay | 8.1 | 37.5 | 34.38 | 20.02 |
New Orleans | 5.22 | 32.42 | 33.44 | 28.92 |
Atlanta | 1.98 | 18.3 | 29.3 | 50.42 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Arizona | 97.7 | 2.16 | 0.14 | 0.0 |
San Francisco | 1.56 | 69.7 | 22.64 | 6.1 |
Seattle | 0.66 | 22.06 | 54.36 | 22.92 |
St Louis | 0.08 | 6.08 | 22.86 | 70.98 |
Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Tennessee | 30.52 | 22.56 | 20.08 | 10.76 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 90.86 |
Miami | 24.08 | 17.92 | 10.36 | 2.96 | 20.5 | 11.4 | 87.22 |
San Diego | 14.04 | 20.78 | 22.36 | 9.16 | 10.54 | 9.64 | 86.52 |
Pittsburgh | 9.16 | 12.54 | 17.76 | 52.78 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 92.76 |
Buffalo | 7.5 | 6.4 | 4.62 | 1.52 | 19.38 | 18.46 | 57.88 |
Denver | 6.38 | 9.16 | 10.16 | 6.88 | 16.68 | 15.62 | 64.88 |
NY Jets | 6.4 | 6.8 | 6.86 | 2.74 | 18.14 | 16.98 | 57.92 |
Indianapolis | 1.38 | 2.72 | 4.96 | 3.66 | 5.48 | 9.62 | 27.82 |
New England | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.7 | 0.24 | 3.9 | 6.26 | 12.0 |
Baltimore | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.62 | 6.6 | 0.44 | 1.58 | 9.42 |
Jacksonville | 0.04 | 0.32 | 1.08 | 1.84 | 0.88 | 3.42 | 7.58 |
Oakland | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.72 | 2.38 | 4.18 |
Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.34 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.36 |
Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.36 | 0.58 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 |
Kansas City | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Washington | 52.12 | 5.88 | 0.42 | 0.06 | 36.56 | 4.16 | 99.2 |
NY Giants | 33.46 | 4.42 | 0.6 | 0.04 | 43.6 | 11.52 | 93.64 |
Carolina | 9.18 | 46.18 | 21.08 | 8.26 | 0.56 | 4.0 | 89.26 |
Chicago | 2.02 | 20.54 | 40.26 | 21.16 | 0.08 | 1.9 | 85.96 |
Arizona | 1.0 | 14.02 | 24.98 | 57.7 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 97.72 |
Dallas | 1.72 | 0.56 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 11.66 | 38.06 | 52.1 |
Tampa Bay | 0.14 | 3.36 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.04 | 8.4 | 17.54 |
Minnesota | 0.04 | 2.18 | 5.44 | 5.26 | 0.48 | 5.74 | 19.14 |
Philadelphia | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 5.32 | 17.52 | 23.46 |
New Orleans | 0.04 | 1.62 | 1.74 | 1.82 | 0.36 | 5.14 | 10.72 |
Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.86 | 0.76 | 0.36 | 0.3 | 2.96 | 5.24 |
Green Bay | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.18 | 1.72 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 3.54 |
San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 1.46 | 0.02 | 0.1 | 1.68 |
Seattle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.66 | 0.0 | 0.06 | 0.72 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.08 |
Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Sun Oct 12 11:42:48 EDT 2008