2009 NFL Playoff Predictions After Week 16

Some interesting scenarios for week 17:

The Jets are guaranteed the 5th seed if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.They cannot qualify for the 6th seed.

Likewise the Ravens are guaranteed a playoff spot if they win, but are eliminated from contention if they lose.

Denver is the only one of the teams still in contention that can qualify for a playoff spot with a loss. However,  a win does not qualify them for a playoff spot.  In addition to a win, they need either a loss or tie from the Jets or Ravens.

A lot is at stake in the Cowboys-Eagles game. The winner could finish as high as the 2nd seed and the loser as low as the 6th seed.

Complete scenarios are available  from: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/12/nfl-playoff-scenarios.html

Single game probabilities are from Advanced NFL Stats:  http://www.advancednflstats.com/

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 88.8 11.2 0.0
Miami 0.0 11.2 88.8 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baltimore 0.0 88.38 11.62 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.0 11.62 88.38 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 41.94 41.98 16.08
Houston 0.0 49.6 20.62 29.78
Tennessee 0.0 8.46 37.4 54.14

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 57.46 42.54 0.0 0.0
Philadelphia 42.54 57.46 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 87.14 12.86 0.0
Carolina 0.0 12.86 87.14 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Indianapolis 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
San Diego 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
New England 0.0 0.0 82.6 17.4 0.0 0.0 100.0
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 17.4 82.6 0.0 0.0 100.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.54 0.0 66.54
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 55.02 82.42
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.62 25.46 29.08
Pittsburgh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.08 13.8 15.88
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.96 4.26
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.06 1.44 1.5
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 0.32
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Philadelphia 0.0 42.54 0.0 0.0 24.74 32.72 100.0
Minnesota 0.0 26.44 50.02 23.54 0.0 0.0 100.0
Dallas 0.0 17.96 27.82 11.68 0.0 42.54 100.0
Arizona 0.0 13.06 22.16 64.78 0.0 0.0 100.0
Green Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.26 24.74 100.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 29 23:08:31 EST 2009

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