NFL playoff races and other musings

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Note that these predictions are based on updated team efficiency ratings, while the analysis of the AFC and NFC playoff races were based on last weeks team efficiencies. Therefore, there might be slight differences in the percentages below and the percentages in those two articles.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	98.14	1.64	0.18	0.04
NY Jets	0.78	64.54	24.22	10.46
Miami	0.84	21.42	53.18	24.56
Buffalo	0.24	12.4	22.42	64.94

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	82.8	15.44	1.76	0.0
Pittsburgh	12.48	47.54	39.98	0.0
Baltimore	4.72	37.02	58.26	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	58.36	23.42	18.22
Tennessee	0.0	17.98	45.54	36.48
Houston	0.0	23.66	31.04	45.3

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	78.32	21.68	0.0	0.0
Denver	21.68	78.32	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	55.92	44.08
Oakland	0.0	0.0	44.08	55.92

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	50.54	29.92	19.54	0.0
Philadelphia	33.14	42.14	24.72	0.0
NY Giants	16.32	27.94	55.48	0.26
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.26	99.74

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	99.74	0.26	0.0	0.0
Green Bay	0.26	97.94	1.8	0.0
Chicago	0.0	1.8	97.68	0.52
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.52	99.48

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.0	91.58	8.42	0.0
Carolina	0.0	8.4	90.62	0.98
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.02	0.96	99.02

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	83.24	16.68	0.08	0.0
San Francisco	16.74	74.08	9.18	0.0
Seattle	0.02	9.22	90.62	0.14
St Louis	0.0	0.02	0.12	99.86

Generated: Wed Dec 02 22:48:41 EST 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	99.34	0.56	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
San Diego	0.36	51.42	17.9	8.64	11.64	6.34	96.3
New England	0.1	17.94	34.24	45.86	0.02	0.12	98.28
Cincinnati	0.02	15.9	31.76	35.12	1.5	8.42	92.72
Denver	0.18	11.8	6.74	2.96	32.42	25.84	79.94
Pittsburgh	0.0	1.96	7.56	2.96	29.5	21.1	63.08
Baltimore	0.0	0.42	1.4	2.9	16.08	18.26	39.06
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.18	0.6	0.24	2.86	3.88
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.12	0.72	0.02	0.48	1.34
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.72	11.24	18.96
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.24	0.0	0.02	0.26
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.82	4.6	5.42
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.72	0.76
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	85.74	14.14	0.12	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Minnesota	14.24	80.62	4.02	0.86	0.18	0.08	100.0
Dallas	0.02	1.3	36.02	13.2	9.24	21.62	81.4
Arizona	0.0	1.86	21.7	59.68	0.54	1.98	85.76
Philadelphia	0.0	1.56	28.66	2.92	19.1	23.6	75.84
NY Giants	0.0	0.3	8.26	7.76	8.7	20.12	45.14
Green Bay	0.0	0.22	0.04	0.0	60.08	25.06	85.4
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	1.18	15.56	0.98	2.9	20.62
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.18	4.4	5.58
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.06	0.08
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.14	0.14
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.04
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 02 22:48:41 EST 2009

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