NFL playoff races and other musings

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	98.16	1.76	0.08	0.0
Miami	1.7	50.62	40.46	7.22
NY Jets	0.14	41.4	45.32	13.14
Buffalo	0.0	6.22	14.14	79.64

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	70.42	28.6	0.98	0.0
Pittsburgh	27.78	53.52	18.7	0.0
Baltimore	1.8	17.88	80.32	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.98	0.0	0.02	0.0
Jacksonville	0.02	65.32	25.08	9.58
Houston	0.0	28.86	44.32	26.82
Tennessee	0.0	5.82	30.58	63.6

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	85.58	14.42	0.0	0.0
Denver	14.42	85.34	0.24	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.22	56.64	43.14
Oakland	0.0	0.02	43.12	56.86

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	40.54	32.42	26.88	0.16
NY Giants	31.08	32.58	35.98	0.36
Philadelphia	28.38	34.98	36.0	0.64
Washington	0.0	0.02	1.14	98.84

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	98.76	1.18	0.06	0.0
Green Bay	1.14	93.24	5.62	0.0
Chicago	0.1	5.58	93.4	0.92
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.92	99.08

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	99.98	0.02	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.02	87.1	12.72	0.16
Carolina	0.0	12.8	86.38	0.82
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.08	0.9	99.02

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	94.46	5.52	0.02	0.0
San Francisco	5.52	79.46	14.8	0.22
Seattle	0.02	14.88	78.22	6.88
St Louis	0.0	0.14	6.96	92.9

Generated: Tue Nov 24 22:37:47 EST 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	98.66	0.98	0.22	0.12	0.0	0.0	99.98
San Diego	0.56	38.58	27.04	19.4	5.26	6.32	97.16
New England	0.22	27.28	32.42	38.24	0.14	0.18	98.48
Cincinnati	0.28	17.5	23.94	28.7	9.44	11.88	91.74
Pittsburgh	0.12	11.86	10.42	5.38	40.76	13.32	81.86
Denver	0.16	3.7	5.42	5.14	22.2	34.02	70.64
Baltimore	0.0	0.06	0.34	1.4	9.04	9.74	20.58
Miami	0.0	0.02	0.16	1.52	0.54	1.24	3.48
Jacksonville	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.0	9.24	14.82	24.08
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.1	0.3	1.36	1.8
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.08	6.92	10.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	80.42	18.56	0.92	0.08	0.0	0.02	100.0
Minnesota	18.94	64.3	11.38	4.14	0.58	0.46	99.8
Arizona	0.34	8.62	30.86	54.64	0.12	0.9	95.48
Dallas	0.3	2.26	23.94	14.04	14.38	21.6	76.52
Philadelphia	0.0	3.12	19.16	6.1	19.72	19.56	67.66
NY Giants	0.0	2.6	12.94	15.54	14.22	19.52	64.82
Green Bay	0.0	0.54	0.48	0.12	46.32	25.98	73.44
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.3	5.22	0.76	2.78	9.06
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	3.64	7.92	11.58
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.14	0.94	1.18
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.14	0.16
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.12	0.18	0.3
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 24 22:37:47 EST 2009

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 24th, 2009 at 11:42 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.