NFL playoff races and other musings

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	93.48	5.62	0.84	0.06
NY Jets	5.18	59.24	27.56	8.02
Miami	1.26	26.66	51.66	20.42
Buffalo	0.08	8.48	19.94	71.5

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	72.56	27.16	0.28	0.0
Pittsburgh	26.96	63.64	9.4	0.0
Baltimore	0.48	9.2	90.32	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.82	0.18	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.1	49.66	45.16	5.08
Houston	0.08	48.4	42.82	8.7
Tennessee	0.0	1.76	12.02	86.22

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	58.42	41.58	0.0	0.0
San Diego	41.58	58.42	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	55.88	44.12
Oakland	0.0	0.0	44.12	55.88

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	53.94	29.26	16.2	0.6
Philadelphia	25.38	39.72	33.74	1.16
NY Giants	20.56	30.68	47.18	1.58
Washington	0.12	0.34	2.88	96.66

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Minnesota	97.68	2.1	0.22	0.0
Green Bay	1.82	86.62	11.56	0.0
Chicago	0.5	11.28	88.0	0.22
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.22	99.78

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	99.94	0.06	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.06	76.38	23.38	0.18
Carolina	0.0	23.5	75.82	0.68
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.06	0.8	99.14

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	87.8	11.92	0.24	0.04
San Francisco	11.84	71.06	16.48	0.62
Seattle	0.32	16.2	72.98	10.5
St Louis	0.04	0.82	10.3	88.84

Generated: Wed Nov 18 22:20:23 EST 2009

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	89.26	7.62	2.44	0.5	0.02	0.14	99.98
Cincinnati	4.96	40.74	19.34	7.52	16.34	7.74	96.64
Pittsburgh	3.08	20.76	2.66	0.46	56.86	9.7	93.52
Denver	1.8	11.16	30.78	14.68	4.44	19.12	81.98
New England	0.46	10.42	26.18	56.42	0.08	0.66	94.22
San Diego	0.4	8.98	18.08	14.12	6.96	21.68	70.22
Baltimore	0.02	0.2	0.18	0.08	5.94	11.18	17.6
Jacksonville	0.02	0.06	0.02	0.0	3.84	13.62	17.56
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.3	4.88	0.04	1.0	6.22
Houston	0.0	0.06	0.02	0.0	5.42	14.76	20.26
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.26	0.04	0.16	1.46
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.08	0.0	0.04	0.12
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.2	0.22
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	83.14	15.3	1.42	0.08	0.04	0.02	100.0
Minnesota	15.82	62.82	13.56	5.48	0.9	0.68	99.26
Dallas	0.76	6.28	32.88	14.02	12.5	16.24	82.68
Arizona	0.26	8.24	24.86	54.44	1.0	1.3	90.1
Philadelphia	0.0	3.94	16.66	4.78	17.28	19.18	61.84
NY Giants	0.02	2.1	9.02	9.42	10.64	16.14	47.34
Green Bay	0.0	1.08	0.64	0.1	43.68	22.28	67.78
San Francisco	0.0	0.12	0.72	11.0	1.68	3.8	17.32
Chicago	0.0	0.1	0.18	0.22	1.66	2.82	4.98
Atlanta	0.0	0.02	0.02	0.02	9.94	14.48	24.48
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.2
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.32	0.1	0.28	0.7
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.56	2.72	3.28
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.0	0.0	0.04
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 18 22:20:23 EST 2009

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