NFL playoff races and other musings

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com. Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL StatsPercent probability of team finishing in each place within the divisionAFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	79.82	16.12	3.64	0.42
NY Jets	15.92	56.22	21.42	6.44
Miami	3.72	19.84	49.62	26.82
Buffalo	0.54	7.82	25.32	66.32

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	56.12	38.92	4.96	0.0
Cincinnati	41.88	53.18	4.94	0.0
Baltimore	2.0	7.9	89.7	0.4
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.4	99.6

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.56	0.42	0.02	0.0
Jacksonville	0.26	60.36	37.88	1.5
Houston	0.18	38.9	58.24	2.68
Tennessee	0.0	0.32	3.86	95.82

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	98.76	1.24	0.0	0.0
San Diego	1.24	98.46	0.3	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.28	84.26	15.46
Kansas City	0.0	0.02	15.44	84.54

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	59.74	31.64	8.6	0.02
Dallas	33.76	49.92	16.22	0.1
Philadelphia	6.5	18.32	73.06	2.12
Washington	0.0	0.12	2.12	97.76

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	47.78	42.5	9.72	0.0
Minnesota	45.92	40.68	13.34	0.06
Chicago	6.3	16.78	75.86	1.06
Detroit	0.0	0.04	1.08	98.88

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	99.48	0.52	0.0	0.0
Atlanta	0.52	97.84	1.64	0.0
Carolina	0.0	1.6	95.2	3.2
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.04	3.16	96.8

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	87.42	10.64	1.88	0.06
San Francisco	10.0	61.72	28.02	0.26
Seattle	2.56	27.56	67.72	2.16
St Louis	0.02	0.08	2.38	97.52

Generated: Thu Oct 29 00:18:46 EDT 2009AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	67.14	26.22	5.1	1.1	0.24	0.14	99.94
Denver	30.08	54.4	12.84	1.44	0.86	0.22	99.84
Pittsburgh	2.36	13.34	33.36	7.06	25.6	9.86	91.58
New England	0.3	2.5	17.14	59.88	1.44	3.04	84.3
Cincinnati	0.08	2.68	27.5	11.62	20.12	17.1	79.1
NY Jets	0.02	0.22	2.42	13.26	3.6	8.72	28.24
San Diego	0.0	0.28	0.74	0.22	25.5	26.4	53.14
Houston	0.02	0.12	0.02	0.02	6.94	11.46	18.58
Baltimore	0.0	0.16	0.56	1.28	2.62	4.98	9.6
Jacksonville	0.0	0.08	0.08	0.1	12.82	16.32	29.4
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.22	3.5	0.22	1.32	5.26
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.52	0.04	0.38	0.96
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.06
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New Orleans	92.6	5.44	1.26	0.18	0.4	0.1	99.98
Green Bay	2.16	23.84	13.86	7.92	23.32	13.66	84.76
Minnesota	1.86	20.5	14.3	9.26	19.98	13.38	79.28
Arizona	1.44	19.54	24.5	41.94	0.7	1.38	89.5
NY Giants	0.52	16.76	24.4	18.06	10.04	10.98	80.76
Dallas	1.2	10.24	14.68	7.64	20.38	18.5	72.64
Chicago	0.04	2.12	2.28	1.86	4.88	9.82	21.0
Atlanta	0.16	0.24	0.12	0.0	14.84	20.42	35.78
Philadelphia	0.02	1.18	2.92	2.38	4.52	8.32	19.34
San Francisco	0.0	0.08	1.38	8.54	0.64	2.74	13.38
Seattle	0.0	0.06	0.3	2.2	0.3	0.64	3.5
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.0	0.02
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.04
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Thu Oct 29 00:18:46 EDT 2009

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