NFL playoff races and other musings

To run your own scenarios, try using the software at nfl-forecast.com

Single game predictions are based on team efficiency ratings at Advanced NFL Stats

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Miami	53.2	27.82	13.16	5.82
NY Jets	25.6	27.6	26.68	20.12
New England	12.14	24.26	31.76	31.84
Buffalo	9.06	20.32	28.4	42.22

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	82.36	17.6	0.04	0.0
Baltimore	17.6	81.96	0.44	0.0
Cleveland	0.04	0.42	92.58	6.96
Cincinnati	0.0	0.02	6.94	93.04

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Tennessee	98.94	1.06	0.0	0.0
Indianapolis	1.04	87.22	10.56	1.18
Jacksonville	0.02	9.64	64.9	25.44
Houston	0.0	2.08	24.54	73.38

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	68.0	31.36	0.62	0.02
Denver	31.9	65.56	2.46	0.08
Oakland	0.1	2.7	74.0	23.2
Kansas City	0.0	0.38	22.92	76.7

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	58.96	30.12	9.72	1.2
Washington	34.2	44.56	17.94	3.3
Philadelphia	6.46	21.58	54.36	17.6
Dallas	0.38	3.74	17.98	77.9

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	75.96	16.3	7.74	0.0
Minnesota	14.22	51.88	33.9	0.0
Green Bay	9.82	31.82	58.34	0.02
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.02	99.98

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Carolina	51.94	29.02	16.08	2.96
Atlanta	26.24	33.8	30.68	9.28
Tampa Bay	20.14	30.48	35.0	14.38
New Orleans	1.68	6.7	18.24	73.38

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Arizona	99.74	0.26	0.0	0.0
Seattle	0.2	40.56	42.9	16.34
San Francisco	0.04	43.58	37.66	18.72
St Louis	0.02	15.6	19.44	64.94

Generated: Tue Nov 11 23:27:04 EST 2008

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Tennessee	90.76	6.16	1.74	0.28	0.84	0.16	99.94
Pittsburgh	5.56	41.34	25.78	9.68	3.08	4.78	90.22
Miami	1.1	21.28	28.68	2.14	9.6	13.58	76.38
NY Jets	1.18	8.82	12.24	3.36	9.26	13.98	48.84
Baltimore	0.18	7.86	6.9	2.66	14.02	18.56	50.18
New England	0.2	5.5	5.3	1.14	7.62	12.5	32.26
San Diego	0.14	4.32	11.9	51.64	1.1	2.02	71.12
Indianapolis	0.7	0.24	0.06	0.04	43.96	18.12	63.12
Buffalo	0.18	3.84	4.6	0.44	9.08	12.14	30.28
Denver	0.0	0.64	2.74	28.52	0.58	2.02	34.5
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.0	0.04	0.08	0.16
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.7	1.66	2.38
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.12	0.4	0.52
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NY Giants	37.86	14.76	5.16	1.18	20.74	9.94	89.64
Washington	21.98	9.32	2.42	0.48	34.74	13.4	82.34
Carolina	20.2	25.46	5.7	0.58	11.64	12.82	76.4
Arizona	6.46	13.24	37.3	42.74	0.0	0.0	99.74
Atlanta	5.0	13.96	6.02	1.26	7.96	15.58	49.78
Tampa Bay	3.62	11.44	4.2	0.88	7.78	16.58	44.5
Chicago	2.0	6.44	30.64	36.88	0.18	0.7	76.84
Philadelphia	2.28	3.06	0.92	0.2	13.72	20.78	40.96
Minnesota	0.54	1.32	5.04	7.32	0.94	2.82	17.98
Dallas	0.06	0.14	0.14	0.04	2.02	4.4	6.8
New Orleans	0.0	0.6	0.74	0.34	0.28	2.78	4.74
Green Bay	0.0	0.26	1.72	7.84	0.0	0.2	10.02
Seattle	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.0	0.0	0.04
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.0	0.02
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 11 23:27:04 EST 2008

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