2007 Playoff Predictions after week 11

This post marks the end of one era and the beginning of another. Up until now, my playoff predictions have been pretty much a one man show. Beginning next week, I’ll be using Brian Burke’s team ratings http://www.bbnflstats.com/ to predict the odds of individual games. I’m really excited about this collaboration, as I think it will improve the accuracy of the predictions. Brian’s fully documented team rating methods compliment the hands-on software approach I’ve used. We’re entering the time of the NFL season where scenario analysis for your team becomes very worthwhile. There may be some minor changes to the appearance of the software, but the overall functionality of the software will be the same, except for better accuracy. I’ll do a full quantitative evaluation over the off season.

This is probably as good as place as any to also acknowledge the contributions of Mike M. SteeleFan. He encouraged me to take my predictions from a mostly private hobby to a publically-distributed website. He also goaded me into learning Java to make it possible, as well as provided feedback on the graphical interface. Thanks, Mike.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Buffalo 0.0 99.46 0.54 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.32 78.3 21.38
Miami 0.0 0.22 21.16 78.62

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 75.24 24.4 0.36 0.0
Cleveland 24.7 73.5 1.66 0.14
Cincinnati 0.04 1.58 55.56 42.82
Baltimore 0.02 0.52 42.42 57.04

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 84.6 12.32 3.0 0.08
Jacksonville 12.54 58.74 26.48 2.24
Tennessee 2.8 27.1 60.56 9.54
Houston 0.06 1.84 9.96 88.14

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 55.52 29.18 14.82 0.48
Denver 33.04 46.52 19.6 0.84
Kansas City 11.44 23.78 59.36 5.42
Oakland 0.0 0.52 6.22 93.26

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 95.06 4.86 0.06 0.02
NY Giants 4.78 78.5 12.34 4.38
Washington 0.08 9.74 44.96 45.22
Philadelphia 0.08 6.9 42.64 50.38

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 96.76 3.24 0.0 0.0
Detroit 3.24 85.74 10.46 0.56
Minnesota 0.0 9.76 63.46 26.78
Chicago 0.0 1.26 26.08 72.66

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 91.42 7.24 1.28 0.06
Carolina 5.16 50.24 37.92 6.68
New Orleans 3.34 37.88 42.82 15.96
Atlanta 0.08 4.64 17.98 77.3

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 67.14 32.64 0.22 0.0
Arizona 32.86 65.46 1.54 0.14
St Louis 0.0 1.4 57.44 41.16
San Francisco 0.0 0.5 40.8 58.7

Generated: Mon Nov 19 23:59:45 EST 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 96.26 3.34 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
Indianapolis 2.58 70.16 11.32 0.54 10.54 3.48 98.62
Pittsburgh 0.96 11.88 50.34 12.06 3.44 7.26 85.94
Jacksonville 0.18 10.04 2.22 0.1 51.92 21.94 86.4
Cleveland 0.0 1.86 19.68 3.16 7.74 19.06 51.5
Tennessee 0.02 2.1 0.64 0.04 22.62 33.4 58.82
San Diego 0.0 0.44 9.34 45.74 0.2 1.36 57.08
Denver 0.0 0.18 5.54 27.32 0.32 3.06 36.42
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.46 10.98 0.0 0.36 11.8
Houston 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.04 1.06 4.3 5.42
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.14 5.5 7.64
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.0 0.16 0.2
Baltimore 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.12 0.16
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 50.4 41.44 4.42 0.5 2.52 0.64 99.92
Dallas 47.46 41.04 5.82 0.74 3.98 0.86 99.9
Tampa Bay 0.72 7.82 42.02 40.86 0.2 0.84 92.46
NY Giants 0.64 3.48 0.62 0.04 68.8 14.56 88.14
Seattle 0.2 3.82 35.44 27.68 2.2 6.56 75.9
Detroit 0.58 1.96 0.52 0.18 7.32 27.74 38.3
Arizona 0.0 0.32 7.98 24.56 0.64 7.5 41.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 1.92 3.24 0.7 4.36 10.22
New Orleans 0.0 0.02 1.22 2.1 0.74 4.72 8.8
Washington 0.0 0.08 0.0 0.0 7.1 15.58 22.76
Philadelphia 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.04 4.6 13.62 18.3
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.06 0.0 0.14 0.22
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.6 3.7
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.28 0.38
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Mon Nov 19 23:59:45 EST 2007

2 Responses to “2007 Playoff Predictions after week 11”

  1. miles says:

    Interesting that Philly has a 5% chance of winning 7 games when only 6 remain; and a 20% chance of winning their remaining 6 games. Guessing you don’t account for their tie.

  2. admin says:

    Whoops. I just entered the game outcome incorrectly in the database. Thanks for your note.

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